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v
Arzignano Valchiampo crestArzignano Valchiampo

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 01 Nov, 16:30

Lumezzane v Arzignano Valchiampo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

In this Serie C - Girone A clash, Arzignano Valchiampo arrives in strong form, sitting 4th in the standings with 20 points, compared to Lumezzane's 12 points and 12th place. Arzignano Valchiampo has demonstrated solid defensive resilience, conceding just 0.8 goals per game, while maintaining a potent attack averaging 1.8 goals. Lumezzane, by contrast, has struggled defensively, allowing 1.8 goals per match and scoring only 1.2 on average. The away side's consistency and defensive solidity set the stage for a confident performance, though Lumezzane's home advantage and recent attacking efforts add an element of unpredictability to this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Arzignano Valchiampo to Win

  • Arzignano Valchiampo ranks 4th with 20 points, showing stronger league form than Lumezzane.
  • Arzignano Valchiampo concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating solid defensive organization.
  • Lumezzane has a higher goals conceded rate at 1.8 per match, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Arzignano Valchiampo averages 1.8 goals scored per game, outperforming Lumezzane's 1.2.
  • Recent form favors Arzignano Valchiampo with 10 points compared to Lumezzane's 4 in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Arzignano Valchiampo to win with a 70% probability, reflecting their superior recent form, defensive strength, and league position. Their ability to limit goals against to 0.8 per game contrasts with Lumezzane's 1.8, highlighting a key advantage. The of 28.3% at of 2.4 indicates a strong betting opportunity. This pick is supported by consistent attacking output and defensive stability, making Arzignano Valchiampo the logical choice despite playing away. No price warnings apply, and the data quality is solid for both teams.

Model Chance56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive Record0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Recent Form Points10 vs 4
Strong positive
Value Edge56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityGood for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Arzignano Valchiampo's superior defensive record and recent form make them the tactical and statistical favorite in this Serie C encounter. Their ability to control games and capitalize on Lumezzane's defensive weaknesses should secure a valuable away victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Arzignano Valchiampo's disciplined defense and efficient attack create a compelling case for their win, especially given Lumezzane's defensive struggles and lower recent point accumulation.”

Key Data Signals

Arzignano Valchiampo to Win evidence

Arzignano Valchiampo ranks 4th with 20 points, showing stronger league form than Lumezzane.

Arzignano Valchiampo concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating solid defensive organization.

Lumezzane has a higher goals conceded rate at 1.8 per match, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.

Arzignano Valchiampo averages 1.8 goals scored per game, outperforming Lumezzane's 1.2.

What To Watch In The Data

Arzignano Valchiampo to Win notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.71, indicating moderately open games.
  • Lumezzane's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Arzignano Valchiampo's 60%, suggesting a tempo that favors goal opportunities but with defensive discipline from the away side potentially limiting excessive scoring.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lumezzane1.2
Avg goals scored
Arzignano Valchiampo1.8
Lumezzane1.8
Avg goals conceded
Arzignano Valchiampo0.8
Lumezzane80%
BTTS rate
Arzignano Valchiampo40%
Lumezzane80%
Over 2.5 goals
Arzignano Valchiampo60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 85%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Lumezzane's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals and BTTS occurrences, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Arzignano Valchiampo's lower BTTS rate of 40% and 60% over 2.5 goals suggest a more controlled approach. This contrast implies a tactical battle between Lumezzane's attacking openness and Arzignano's defensive discipline, likely producing a moderate goal count with selective scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickArzignano Valchiampo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 56.7% for Arzignano Valchiampo to Win sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Arzignano Valchiampo have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Lumezzane.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lumezzane

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
25 Oct 2026A Pergolettese1-2
17 Oct 2026A Athletic Carpi1-3
13 Oct 2026A Juventus U230-0
10 Oct 2026H Albinoleffe3-2
26 Sep 2026H Folgore Caratese1-2

Arzignano Valchiampo

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
25 Oct 2026H Novara2-0
19 Oct 2026A Cittadella0-1
10 Oct 2026H Juventus U232-1
03 Oct 2026H Pergolettese2-2
27 Sep 2026A Athletic Carpi3-0
Market aligned with main pickArzignano Valchiampo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Arzignano Valchiampo's recent form is markedly stronger, securing 10 points compared to Lumezzane's 4 in recent matches. This momentum reflects tactical cohesion and effective execution, particularly in defense and attack balance. Lumezzane's struggles to convert chances and prevent goals underpin their lower point tally and suggest challenges in matching the away side's consistency.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Lumezzane Over 2.5
60%Arzignano Valchiampo Over 2.5
2.71H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.71, indicating moderately open games. Lumezzane's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Arzignano Valchiampo's 60%, suggesting a tempo that favors goal opportunities but with defensive discipline from the away side potentially limiting excessive scoring.

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