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Londrina crestLondrina
v
America Mineiro crestAmerica Mineiro

Serie B | Sun 01 Nov, 19:00

Londrina v America Mineiro Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 18:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Londrina hosting America Mineiro in a crucial late-season encounter. Londrina sits just above the relegation zone with 32 points, while America Mineiro struggles below with 23 points, making this a vital match for both sides aiming to improve their standings. Londrina's recent form shows a slight edge with 4 points from recent matches compared to America Mineiro's 6, but their defensive vulnerability and America Mineiro's more disciplined defensive record set up an intriguing tactical battle. Both teams will be motivated to secure points, adding intensity and urgency to the fixture.

BT4Y best bet

America Mineiro to Win

  • America Mineiro offers strong value at 4.2 with a 48.9% versus 23.8% implied chance.
  • Londrina concedes 1.6 goals per game, while America Mineiro concedes only 0.8, indicating defensive solidity for the away side.
  • Londrina averages 14.4 shots per game with 4.2 on target, showing offensive activity but lower conversion.
  • America Mineiro has a 0% over 2.5 goals rate recently, suggesting tight matches and defensive focus.
  • Player data highlights Bruno Santos and Victor Feitosa as key offensive threats for Londrina, while America Mineiro's defensive players maintain discipline.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies America Mineiro to win as a strong value bet due to the significant gap between the model's 48.9% win probability and the market's 23.8% implied chance, offering a 25.1% . Despite America Mineiro's lower recent scoring rate, their defensive resilience and Londrina's defensive frailties create conditions for an away win. The model at 77% supports this pick, reflecting a balanced view of form, defensive stats, and player impact. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability48.9%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance38.8% model chance vs 23.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge38.8% model chance vs 23.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormAmerica Mineiro concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Londrina's 1.6
Positive
Recent Scoring FormAmerica Mineiro scores 0.4 goals per game, Londrina 1.0
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

America Mineiro's defensive discipline and Londrina's defensive weaknesses create a tactical scenario favoring an away win. The data shows America Mineiro concedes fewer goals and has a better recent points haul, supporting the likelihood of a valuable upset. This pick balances tactical insight with statistical backing for a confident away victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive strength and value pricing

“America Mineiro's defensive solidity and Londrina's vulnerability at the back make the away win a compelling choice, especially given the attractive and model .”

Key Data Signals

America Mineiro to Win evidence

America Mineiro offers strong value at 4.2 with a 48.9% versus 23.8% implied chance.

Londrina concedes 1.6 goals per game, while America Mineiro concedes only 0.8, indicating defensive solidity for the away side.

Londrina averages 14.4 shots per game with 4.2 on target, showing offensive activity but lower conversion.

America Mineiro has a 0% over 2.5 goals rate recently, suggesting tight matches and defensive focus.

What To Watch In The Data

America Mineiro to Win notes

  • In the last five matches, Londrina has a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open, high-tempo games.
  • America Mineiro's matches have produced no over 2.5 goals, reflecting a more cautious tempo.
  • The average goals in their five head-to-head meetings is 3, suggesting potential for goals but also tactical variability depending on match context.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Londrina1
Avg goals scored
America Mineiro0.4
Londrina1.6
Avg goals conceded
America Mineiro0.8
Londrina60%
BTTS rate
America Mineiro0%
Londrina60%
Over 2.5 goals
America Mineiro0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent trends show Londrina's matches often exceed 2.5 goals with a 60% rate and 60% BTTS, indicating open games. Conversely, America Mineiro's matches are low scoring with 0% over 2.5 goals and no BTTS, reflecting a defensive approach. This contrast suggests a tactical battle between Londrina's attack and America Mineiro's defense, likely resulting in a tight scoreline.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAmerica Mineiro to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
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Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
America Mineiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 38.8% for America Mineiro to Win sits against roughly 23.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). America Mineiro have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Londrina.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Londrina

LWDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
24 Oct 2026A CRB1-2
20 Oct 2026H Cuiaba1-0
13 Oct 2026A Athletic Club2-2
07 Oct 2026A Avai1-2
03 Oct 2026H Criciuma0-2

America Mineiro

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
26 Oct 2026H Cuiaba1-0
17 Oct 2026H Operario-PR1-0
12 Oct 2026A Criciuma0-1
08 Oct 2026H Fortaleza EC0-1
03 Oct 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-2
Market aligned with main pickAmerica Mineiro to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
America Mineiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
America Mineiro has gained 6 points recently compared to Londrina's 4, showing slightly better momentum. Londrina's higher goals conceded (1.6 per game) versus America Mineiro's 0.8 highlights defensive vulnerabilities that America Mineiro can exploit. The recent form data supports America Mineiro's potential to secure a valuable away win despite their lower scoring output.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Londrina Over 2.5
0%America Mineiro Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last five matches, Londrina has a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open, high-tempo games. America Mineiro's matches have produced no over 2.5 goals, reflecting a more cautious tempo. The average goals in their five head-to-head meetings is 3, suggesting potential for goals but also tactical variability depending on match context.

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