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Lommel United crestLommel United
v
Gent crestGent

Jupiler Pro League | Sun 01 Nov, 17:30

Lommel United v Gent Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 17:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gent arrives at this Jupiler Pro League fixture in strong form, sitting second in the table with 25 points, nearly doubling Lommel United's 12 points in eighth place. Gent's defensive solidity is notable, conceding just 0.4 goals per game compared to Lommel's 1.8, while their attack averages 2.4 goals per match. Lommel United's recent form shows some resilience but limited scoring, with only one goal in recent matches. Gent's tactical discipline and superior squad depth position them as clear favorites in this contest, aiming to extend their winning momentum away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Gent to Win

  • Gent ranks 2nd with 25 points, showing strong league form compared to Lommel United's 8th place and 12 points.
  • Gent concedes only 0.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive strength versus Lommel's 1.8 goals conceded.
  • Gent averages 2.4 goals scored per match, significantly higher than Lommel's 1.0, indicating attacking superiority.
  • Recent form data shows Gent with 13 points and Lommel with 5, reinforcing Gent's momentum.
  • Gent's shot accuracy and volume, led by players like M. Cisse, supports their goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gent to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior league position, defensive record, and attacking output. Gent's low goals conceded (0.4 per game) and higher scoring rate (2.4 goals per game) contrast sharply with Lommel United's weaker defensive and offensive stats. The model's is bolstered by Gent's recent form and player-level data showing key attackers like I. Dean creating significant goal threats. This combination of tactical strength and statistical control justifies the positive value at of 1.73.

Model Chance70% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+10.1 pts)
Strong positive
Gent Defensive Record0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Gent Attacking Output2.4 goals scored per game
Strong positive
Recent FormGent 13 points vs Lommel 5 points
Positive
Key Player ThreatsI. Cisse 4 goals, M. Dean 4.86 shots on target per 90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gent's tactical discipline and superior recent form make them the clear choice to win this match. Their defensive resilience and attacking efficiency, supported by standout performances from players like I. Dean, provide a strong foundation for victory against Lommel United, who have struggled defensively and offensively this season.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Gent to Win

“Gent's combination of defensive solidity and dynamic attacking players like I. Dean creates a compelling case for their victory, especially given Lommel United's defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent form.”

Key Data Signals

Gent to Win evidence

Gent ranks 2nd with 25 points, showing strong league form compared to Lommel United's 8th place and 12 points.

Gent concedes only 0.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive strength versus Lommel's 1.8 goals conceded.

Gent averages 2.4 goals scored per match, significantly higher than Lommel's 1.0, indicating attacking superiority.

Recent form data shows Gent with 13 points and Lommel with 5, reinforcing Gent's momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Gent to Win notes

  • In the last ten matches, both teams have a 60% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, suggesting a tendency for open, attacking games.
  • The single head-to-head meeting averaged 2 goals, but current form and attacking stats imply a higher tempo and goal potential in this fixture, favoring an over 2.5 goals trend.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lommel United1
Avg goals scored
Gent2.4
Lommel United1.8
Avg goals conceded
Gent0.4
Lommel United40%
BTTS rate
Gent40%
Lommel United60%
Over 2.5 goals
Gent60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 50% · edge +2.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, but Gent's higher scoring average of 2.4 goals per game suggests a likelihood of goals from their side. Lommel United's 1.0 goals per game and 60% over 2.5 goals rate indicate potential for an open game, supporting a scenario where Gent can capitalize offensively while maintaining defensive control.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGent to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Gent Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 70% for Gent to Win sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+10.1 pts). Gent have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 5 for Lommel United.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lommel United

DWDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 3L
24 Oct 2026A OH Leuven2-2
09 Oct 2026A SK Beveren3-1
19 Sep 2026H KV Mechelen0-0
12 Sep 2026A Union St. Gilloise0-5
04 Sep 2026H Club Brugge KV0-1

Gent

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 0L
25 Oct 2026H Anderlecht4-0
10 Oct 2026A Zulte Waregem2-0
18 Sep 2026H Standard Liege2-1
13 Sep 2026A Genk1-1
06 Sep 2026A Cercle Brugge3-0
Market aligned with main pickGent to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Gent Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Gent's recent accumulation of 13 points contrasts with Lommel United's 5 points, demonstrating Gent's superior momentum and consistency. Gent's ability to maintain defensive solidity while scoring regularly has been key to this run, whereas Lommel's struggles to convert chances and defensive lapses have limited their point haul, reinforcing Gent's advantage heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Lommel United Over 2.5
60%Gent Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last ten matches, both teams have a 60% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, suggesting a tendency for open, attacking games. The single head-to-head meeting averaged 2 goals, but current form and attacking stats imply a higher tempo and goal potential in this fixture, favoring an over 2.5 goals trend.

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