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Llaneros crestLlaneros
v
Deportivo Cali crestDeportivo Cali

Primera A | Thu 22 Oct, 00:15

Llaneros v Deportivo Cali Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Deportivo Cali visits Llaneros in a Primera A clash where the away side holds a strong upper hand in the standings and recent form. Deportivo Cali sits third with 26 points, showing defensive solidity with just 0.2 goals conceded per game, while Llaneros are 12th with 17 points and a less stable defensive record. Deportivo Cali's tactical discipline and ability to control matches away from home underpin their , contrasting with Llaneros' struggles to score and defend consistently. This fixture offers Deportivo Cali a clear chance to extend their advantage and maintain pressure on the league leaders.

BT4Y best bet

Deportivo Cali to Win

  • Deportivo Cali ranks 3rd with 26 points, Llaneros 12th with 17 points
  • Deportivo Cali concedes only 0.2 goals per game, Llaneros concedes 1 goal per game
  • Deportivo Cali averages 1.2 goals scored per match, slightly higher than Llaneros' 1 goal
  • Deportivo Cali's recent form yields 11 points versus Llaneros' 6 points in last matches
  • Deportivo Cali's defensive strength contrasts with Llaneros' higher yellow card average (3.8 vs 1.8)

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Deportivo Cali to win with a 67.5% chance, reflecting their superior league position, stronger recent form, and defensive resilience. Deportivo Cali's low goals conceded rate (0.2 per game) and ability to limit opponents' scoring opportunities underpin this . Llaneros' struggles in defense and lower points tally reinforce the away side's advantage. The at 2.62 offer positive value given the model's implied chance of 38.2%, making this a compelling selection based on both data and tactical context.

Model Chance53.2% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model53.2% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsDeportivo Cali 11 vs Llaneros 6
Positive
Defensive RecordDeportivo Cali concedes 0.2 goals/game
Strong positive
League StandingDeportivo Cali 3rd vs Llaneros 12th
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Deportivo Cali's tactical discipline and defensive strength make them the clear favorites to secure victory against Llaneros. Their superior recent form and league position provide a solid foundation for success, while Llaneros' defensive vulnerabilities and lower point accumulation suggest they will struggle to contain the visitors.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Deportivo Cali's ability to control the game defensively and capitalize on key attacking moments positions them strongly to claim all three points in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Deportivo Cali to Win evidence

Deportivo Cali ranks 3rd with 26 points, Llaneros 12th with 17 points

Deportivo Cali concedes only 0.2 goals per game, Llaneros concedes 1 goal per game

Deportivo Cali averages 1.2 goals scored per match, slightly higher than Llaneros' 1 goal

Deportivo Cali's recent form yields 11 points versus Llaneros' 6 points in last matches

What To Watch In The Data

Deportivo Cali to Win notes

  • In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderately low-scoring games.
  • Llaneros' 40% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Deportivo Cali's 20%, suggesting the match may lean towards fewer goals and a controlled tempo, consistent with Deportivo Cali's defensive approach and tactical discipline.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Llaneros1
Avg goals scored
Deportivo Cali1.2
Llaneros1
Avg goals conceded
Deportivo Cali0.2
Llaneros40%
BTTS rate
Deportivo Cali20%
Llaneros40%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Cali20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 62% · edge +2.9 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Both teams show relatively low scoring rates, with Deportivo Cali averaging 1.2 goals and Llaneros 1 goal per game. BTTS rates are low for Deportivo Cali (20%) and moderate for Llaneros (40%), suggesting a match likely to have limited scoring from the home side. The data points to a controlled game with fewer goals and a lower likelihood of both teams scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Llaneros

WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
19 Oct 2026H Santa Fe1-0
10 Oct 2026A Once Caldas0-1
05 Oct 2026H America de Cali1-2
27 Sep 2026A Cucuta1-2
21 Sep 2026H Atletico Nacional2-0

Deportivo Cali

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
19 Oct 2026H Junior0-0
10 Oct 2026A Deportivo Pereira0-0
03 Oct 2026H Alianza Valledupar3-1
28 Sep 2026H Águilas Doradas2-0
23 Sep 2026A Santa Fe1-0
Market aligned with main pickDeportivo Cali to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Deportivo Cali Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Deportivo Cali's recent form is markedly stronger, securing 11 points compared to Llaneros' 6 in their last matches. This momentum reflects their ability to maintain defensive solidity and capitalize on scoring chances, contrasting with Llaneros' inconsistent performances and defensive lapses that have cost points.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDeportivo Cali to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Deportivo Cali Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 53.2% for Deportivo Cali to Win sits against roughly 38.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Deportivo Cali have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 6 for Llaneros.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Llaneros Over 2.5
20%Deportivo Cali Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderately low-scoring games. Llaneros' 40% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Deportivo Cali's 20%, suggesting the match may lean towards fewer goals and a controlled tempo, consistent with Deportivo Cali's defensive approach and tactical discipline.

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