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Livorno crestLivorno
v
Ostia Mare crestOstia Mare

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 01 Nov, 16:30

Livorno v Ostia Mare Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 18:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Livorno and Ostia Mare meet in Serie C - Girone B with contrasting recent form and attacking profiles. Livorno, positioned 8th, have shown a tendency for open games, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per match but conceding 2, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities. Ostia Mare, lower in 17th place, have a more cautious attack with 0.6 goals per game but concede 1.2, suggesting chances for both sides. Livorno's 80% BTTS rate and Ostia Mare's 60% indicate a strong likelihood of goals at both ends, setting the stage for a potentially open encounter with goal-scoring opportunities for both teams.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Livorno has an 80% rate of both teams scoring in their matches this season.
  • Ostia Mare also shows a 60% BTTS rate, supporting goal chances for both sides.
  • Livorno averages 1.8 goals scored per game but concedes 2, indicating defensive gaps.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over four matches, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • Livorno's recent form includes 5 points with offensive output, while Ostia Mare has 3 points and a lower scoring rate.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 76% probability, well above the implied market chance of 59.9%, indicating clear value. Livorno's high BTTS rate of 80% combined with Ostia Mare's 60% supports the expectation of goals at both ends. Despite Ostia Mare's lower scoring average, their defensive concessions and Livorno's attacking tendencies create opportunities for both sides to find the net. The head-to-head average of 2.5 goals further reinforces the likelihood of an open game with goals from both teams.

Livorno BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Ostia Mare BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Model Probability74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Head-to-Head Avg Goals2.5
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Teams to Score is a tactically sound pick given Livorno's offensive output and defensive frailties combined with Ostia Mare's tendency to concede and occasional goals. The data shows a consistent pattern of goals at both ends, making this bet a strong choice for those expecting an open contest with scoring opportunities for both sides.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“The statistical profile of both teams points to an open game where defensive lapses and attacking intent will likely lead to goals from both sides, making the BTTS market a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Livorno has an 80% rate of both teams scoring in their matches this season.

Ostia Mare also shows a 60% BTTS rate, supporting goal chances for both sides.

Livorno averages 1.8 goals scored per game but concedes 2, indicating defensive gaps.

The head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over four matches, suggesting moderate scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a match likely to feature goals, supporting the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals markets.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Livorno1.8
Avg goals scored
Ostia Mare0.6
Livorno2
Avg goals conceded
Ostia Mare1.2
Livorno80%
BTTS rate
Ostia Mare60%
Livorno60%
Over 2.5 goals
Ostia Mare20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Livorno's 80% BTTS rate and Ostia Mare's 60% rate highlight a strong trend for goals at both ends. Combined with a head-to-head average of 2.5 goals over four matches, the data supports an expectation of an open game with scoring from both teams.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Livorno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Livorno to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Ostia Mare Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Ostia Mare to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The 74.9% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Livorno show a 80% BTTS rate and Ostia Mare show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Livorno

LDDLW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
24 Oct 2026A Sambenedettese1-2
16 Oct 2026H Grosseto4-4
11 Oct 2026A Forli1-1
03 Oct 2026H Pescara0-1
26 Sep 2026H Pianese3-2

Ostia Mare

LLDDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
23 Oct 2026H Vado1-2
18 Oct 2026A Pescara0-2
10 Oct 2026H Pianese0-0
04 Oct 2026A Latina1-1
27 Sep 2026H Forli1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 82% · edge +0.3 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Load more odds for this section
Livorno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Livorno to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Ostia Mare Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Ostia Mare to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form shows Livorno earning 5 points with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 2 conceded per match, indicating offensive strength but defensive vulnerability. Ostia Mare has 3 points with lower scoring but concedes 1.2 goals per game, reinforcing the likelihood of goals at both ends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Livorno Over 2.5
20%Ostia Mare Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a match likely to feature goals, supporting the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals markets.

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