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Livingston crestLivingston
v
Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock

Premiership | Sun 17 May, 14:00

Livingston v Kilmarnock Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 22:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Livingston face Kilmarnock in Premiership on Sun 17 May, 14:00. Kilmarnock are in exceptional form, entering this fixture with three consecutive league wins and nine goals scored. With the hosts already relegated and conceding in 18 straight home games, Killie's superior momentum should prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Kilmarnock Win

  • At 6/5, Kilmarnock Win implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • Livingston's desperation for a final home memory suggests they will attack, having scored in several recent outings.
  • Kilmarnock have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Livingston.
  • Kilmarnock have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Kilmarnock Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Livingston sit 6 in the table, while Kilmarnock sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 70% for Kilmarnock Win sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. Kilmarnock have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Livingston. Livingston's desperation for a final home memory suggests they will attack, having scored in several recent outings.

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Strong positive
Kilmarnock have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Kilmarnock have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Livingston's desperation for a final home memory suggests they.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Kilmarnock Win is the preferred angle because livingston's desperation for a final home memory suggests they will attack, having scored in several recent outings. Kilmarnock have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Livingston. One team are wounded but liberated.

Main risk

One team are wounded but liberated.

Key Data Signals

Kilmarnock Win evidence

Livingston's desperation for a final home memory suggests they will attack, having scored in several recent outings.

Kilmarnock have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Livingston.

Kilmarnock have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Kilmarnock Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Livingston sit 6 in the table, while Kilmarnock sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Kilmarnock Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Livingston1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Kilmarnock2.2
    Livingston1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Kilmarnock0.8
    Livingston40%
    BTTS rate
    Kilmarnock40%
    Livingston60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Kilmarnock80%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 78% vs implied 82% · edge -3.7 pts
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Livingston and 80% for Kilmarnock, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

    Continue the research

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 43% · edge +27.4 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Kilmarnock to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Livingston5.8
    Avg corners for
    Kilmarnock4.6
    Livingston11.6
    Avg total corners
    Kilmarnock8.4
    Livingston2
    Avg yellow cards
    Kilmarnock2.6
    Livingston11.6
    Avg shots
    Kilmarnock12.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.1 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Livingston

    DLDWL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 6D 3L
    12 May 2026A Dundee Utd0-0
    09 May 2026A Dundee0-3
    01 May 2026H Aberdeen2-2
    25 Apr 2026A ST Mirren2-0
    11 Apr 2026A Dundee Utd2-3

    Kilmarnock

    WWWLD
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    12 May 2026H Dundee3-1
    09 May 2026A ST Mirren3-0
    02 May 2026H Dundee Utd3-0
    25 Apr 2026A Aberdeen0-1
    11 Apr 2026H Dundee2-2
    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 43% · edge +27.4 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Livingston wins
    3Draws
    5Kilmarnock wins
    21 Mar 2026Kilmarnock v Livingston2-0
    10 Jan 2026Livingston v Kilmarnock1-1
    02 Aug 2025Kilmarnock v Livingston2-2
    16 Jul 2025Kilmarnock v Livingston1-0
    07 Feb 2024Kilmarnock v Livingston1-0
    16 Dec 2023Livingston v Kilmarnock0-0
    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 43% · edge +27.4 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Kilmarnock to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premiership

    Livingston38
    Played
    Kilmarnock38
    Livingston1.1
    Avg goals for
    Kilmarnock1.3
    Livingston2
    Avg goals against
    Kilmarnock1.8
    Livingston4
    Clean sheets
    Kilmarnock9
    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 43% · edge +27.4 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Season data supports Kilmarnock to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    11Kilmarnock283361017-28
    12Livingston163311319-31
    4Kilmarnock4038101018-18
    6Livingston213821521-35
    Livingston sit in position 6, while Kilmarnock sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Kilmarnock Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Livingston Over 2.5
    80%Kilmarnock Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Livingston sit at 60% and Kilmarnock sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Livingston v Kilmarnock prediction

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