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Manchester City crestManchester City

Premier League | Sun 11 Oct, 16:30

Liverpool v Manchester City Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 20:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Liverpool face Manchester City in Premier League on Sun 11 Oct, 16:30. Manchester City’s flawless start, scoring 13 goals in five league matches and Haaland’s prolific scoring record, underpin in the -0.25 Asian Handicap. Liverpool vs Manchester City Preview: Unbeaten Rivals Collide in High-Stakes Anfield Showdown.

BT4Y best bet

Manchester City Asian Handicap -0

  • At 8/1, Manchester City Asian Handicap -0 implies roughly 11%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 26%.
  • However, City’s preparations have been dominated by developments away from football.
  • Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 9 for Liverpool.
  • Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester City Asian Handicap -0 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Liverpool sit 5 in the table, while Manchester City sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 26% for Manchester City Asian Handicap -0 sits against roughly 11% implied by the current price. Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 9 for Liverpool. However, City’s preparations have been dominated by developments away from football.

Model chance vs price26% model chance against roughly 11% implied
Strong positive
Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 15.Visible data support
Positive
Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
However, City’s preparations have been dominated by developments away.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Manchester City Win is the preferred angle because however, City’s preparations have been dominated by developments away from football. Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 9 for Liverpool. However, their ability to match Manchester City’s scoring rate is compromised by significant attacking absences.

Main risk

However, their ability to match Manchester City’s scoring rate is compromised by significant attacking absences.

Key Data Signals

Manchester City Asian Handicap -0 evidence

However, City’s preparations have been dominated by developments away from football.

Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 9 for Liverpool.

Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Liverpool sit 5 in the table, while Manchester City sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Manchester City Asian Handicap -0 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Liverpool1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Manchester City2.6
    Liverpool0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Manchester City1
    Liverpool40%
    BTTS rate
    Manchester City60%
    Liverpool40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Manchester City60%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 42% · edge +7.9 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Liverpool and 60% for Manchester City, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

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    Useful next reads

    Premier League fixtures and predictionsLiverpool v Manchester City predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Liverpool

    WDWDD
    Last 52W 3D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 0L
    20 Sep 2026A Bournemouth1-0
    12 Sep 2026H Fulham0-0
    04 Sep 2026A Ipswich2-0
    29 Aug 2026H Nottingham Forest2-2
    23 Aug 2026A Newcastle2-2

    Manchester City

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 0D 0L
    20 Sep 2026H Sunderland5-3
    13 Sep 2026A Manchester United1-0
    05 Sep 2026H Coventry1-0
    28 Aug 2026A Crystal Palace4-1
    23 Aug 2026H Bournemouth2-1
    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
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    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Manchester City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Manchester City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 58%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Manchester City to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Liverpool Over 2.5
    60%Manchester City Over 2.5
    2.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Liverpool sit at 40% and Manchester City sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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