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Lithuania crestLithuania
v
Azerbaijan crestAzerbaijan

UEFA Nations League | Sun 27 Sep, 14:00

Lithuania v Azerbaijan Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lithuania and Azerbaijan meet in this UEFA Nations League clash with Lithuania holding early advantage after a solid opening performance. Lithuania's recent form shows a clean defensive record and a narrow win, while Azerbaijan has yet to score or gain points in the competition. Lithuania's tactical setup emphasizes disciplined defense and quick transitions, aiming to capitalize on Azerbaijan's early struggles. The stakes are high as both teams seek to establish momentum, but Lithuania's current and home advantage set a challenging scene for Azerbaijan to break through.

BT4Y match pick

Lithuania to Win

  • Lithuania won their opening Nations League match with a clean sheet and 2 goals scored.
  • Azerbaijan has yet to score or gain points in the competition so far.
  • Lithuania averages 16 shots and 7 shots on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.
  • Lithuania ranks first in the group with 3 points, showing early control.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Lithuania to win with a 70.7% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking metrics. Lithuania's clean sheet and goal-scoring in the opening match, combined with Azerbaijan's lack of goals and points, underpin this . The home side's high shot volume and accuracy further support their winning prospects. Data quality is solid for both teams, adding reliability to the prediction. The price offers positive value given the model's chance versus the implied market , making Lithuania a compelling selection.

Recent formLithuania has 3 points and 2 goals scored with no goals conceded; Azerbaijan has 0 points and no goals.
Strong positive
Attacking pressureLithuania averages 16 shots and 7 shots on target per game.
Strong positive
Defensive solidityLithuania kept a clean sheet in their last match.
Positive
Market value edgeModel chance 70.7% vs implied chance 40.8%, value edge +29.9%.
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lithuania's disciplined defensive approach combined with their strong attacking output in the opening match makes them the clear favorite. Their ability to maintain pressure and convert chances, alongside Azerbaijan's early struggles, supports a confident home win selection in this Nations League fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lithuania's early control in both defense and attack sets a tactical tone that Azerbaijan must overcome, making the home side the natural pick for victory.”

Key Data Signals

Lithuania to Win evidence

Azerbaijan has yet to score or gain points in the competition so far.

Lithuania averages 16 shots and 7 shots on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Lithuania ranks first in the group with 3 points, showing early control.

What To Watch In The Data

Lithuania to Win notes

  • Recent Nations League data shows low Over 2.5 Goals rates for Lithuania, with their matches tending to be controlled and defensively disciplined.
  • The single head-to-head meeting ended goalless, suggesting a cautious tactical approach that may limit high-scoring outcomes in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lithuania2
Avg goals scored
Azerbaijan-
Lithuania0
Avg goals conceded
Azerbaijan-
Lithuania0%
BTTS rate
Azerbaijan-
Lithuania0%
Over 2.5 goals
Azerbaijan-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Lithuania's opening match featured 2 goals scored with a clean sheet, while Azerbaijan has yet to score, indicating a low likelihood of both teams scoring. The goal trend suggests a controlled game with Lithuania likely to keep Azerbaijan at bay, reducing BTTS chances.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLithuania to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 41% · edge -0.3 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Lithuania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The for Lithuania to win reflect a significant undervaluation compared to the model's 70.7% win probability. This positive suggests the market has not fully priced Lithuania's strong form and attacking control, making the selection price-sensitive but attractive at current levels.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lithuania8
Avg corners for
Azerbaijan-
Lithuania8
Avg total corners
Azerbaijan-
Lithuania1
Avg yellow cards
Azerbaijan-
Lithuania16
Avg shots
Azerbaijan-
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 56% · edge -20.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Lithuania's average of 8 corners and 16 shots per game indicates sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Their low average of 1 yellow card per game reflects disciplined play, suggesting a controlled approach with effective set-piece opportunities and minimal disciplinary disruption.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lithuania

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
24 Sep 2026A Liechtenstein2-0

Azerbaijan

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Azerbaijan yet.

Market aligned with main pickLithuania to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 41% · edge -0.3 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Lithuania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Lithuania's recent form includes a 2-0 win with a clean sheet, demonstrating both attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. Azerbaijan's lack of points and goals highlights their struggles, reinforcing Lithuania's momentum and advantage heading into this match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Lithuania wins
1Draws
0Azerbaijan wins
25 Mar 2019Azerbaijan v Lithuania0-0
Market aligned with main pickLithuania to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 41% · edge -0.3 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The only previous meeting between Lithuania and Azerbaijan ended 0-0, indicating a historically tight contest. While this provides limited support for a high-scoring game, Lithuania's current form and attacking improvements suggest a stronger chance for a home win this time.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Nations League

Lithuania1
Played
Azerbaijan0
Lithuania2
Avg goals for
Azerbaijan0
Lithuania0
Avg goals against
Azerbaijan0
Lithuania1
Clean sheets
Azerbaijan0
Market aligned with main pickLithuania to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 41% · edge -0.3 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Lithuania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Lithuania's season stats show a strong attacking profile with high shot volumes and a solid defensive record, supporting their likelihood to win. Azerbaijan's limited offensive output and points tally contrast sharply, underscoring Lithuania's superiority in season-long performance metrics.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Lithuania311002
2Azerbaijan000000
Lithuania leads the group with 3 points, establishing early pressure on Azerbaijan who sit second without points. While standings are early, Lithuania's position reflects their effective start and adds psychological advantage in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Lithuania Over 2.5
-Azerbaijan Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
Recent Nations League data shows low Over 2.5 Goals rates for Lithuania, with their matches tending to be controlled and defensively disciplined. The single head-to-head meeting ended goalless, suggesting a cautious tactical approach that may limit high-scoring outcomes in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lithuania v Azerbaijan prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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