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Lithuania crestLithuania
v
Azerbaijan crestAzerbaijan

UEFA Nations League | Sun 27 Sep, 14:00

Lithuania v Azerbaijan Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 17:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lithuania face Azerbaijan in UEFA Nations League on Sun 27 Sep, 14:00. Azerbaijan and Lithuania renew acquaintances in Baku on Sunday as the two unbeaten sides in Nations League Group 2 meet for the second time in little more than a week. Azerbaijan vs Lithuania preview: Unbeaten sides meet again in Baku.

BT4Y match pick

The Draw

  • At 1.5, The Draw implies roughly 67%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Azerbaijan’s unbeaten run and defensive solidity contrast with their lack of scoring, while Lithuania’s recent goal threat and tight matches suggest another draw is.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for The Draw sits against roughly 67% implied by the current price. Azerbaijan’s unbeaten run and defensive solidity contrast with their lack of scoring, while Lithuania’s recent goal threat and tight matches suggest another draw is.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 67% implied
Neutral
Azerbaijan’s unbeaten run and defensive solidity contrast with their.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -0.7 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because six of Lithuania’s last seven games have produced under 2.5 goals. Risk Factor: Lithuania have won two of their last three matches and their superior goal return could decide the tight contest if Azerbaijan fail to score.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Lithuania have won two of their last three matches and their superior goal return could decide the tight contest if Azerbaijan fail to score.

Key Data Signals

The Draw evidence

Six of Lithuania’s last seven games have produced under 2.5 goals.

What To Watch In The Data

The Draw notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lithuania2
Avg goals scored
Azerbaijan-
Lithuania0
Avg goals conceded
Azerbaijan-
Lithuania0%
BTTS rate
Azerbaijan-
Lithuania0%
Over 2.5 goals
Azerbaijan-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lithuania

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
24 Sep 2026A Liechtenstein2-0

Azerbaijan

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Azerbaijan yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 74% · edge -2.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Lithuania to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Lithuania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Azerbaijan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Azerbaijan to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLithuania to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 42% · edge -0.7 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Lithuania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Azerbaijan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Azerbaijan to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Lithuania to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Lithuania Over 2.5
-Azerbaijan Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
Azerbaijan’s unbeaten run and defensive solidity contrast with their lack of scoring, while Lithuania’s recent goal threat and tight matches suggest another draw is likely in this balanced.

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