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Lincoln crestLincoln
v
Birmingham crestBirmingham

Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30

Lincoln v Birmingham Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 11:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Championship clash features Lincoln hosting Birmingham, with Birmingham currently positioned seventh and Lincoln fifteenth in the league. Birmingham arrives in better recent form, having collected 10 points in their last five matches compared to Lincoln's 4 points. Birmingham's defensive solidity is notable, conceding just 0.6 goals per game recently, while Lincoln has struggled defensively, conceding 2.8 goals per game. The match promises tactical intensity as Birmingham aims to capitalize on their momentum and defensive strength to secure an away victory at Lincoln's ground.

BT4Y best bet

Birmingham to Win

  • Birmingham holds a strong recent form edge with 10 points from last five games versus Lincoln's 4.
  • Birmingham concedes only 0.6 goals per game recently, highlighting defensive resilience.
  • Lincoln's defense has been vulnerable, allowing 2.8 goals per game in recent matches.
  • Birmingham averages more shots on target (5.2) than Lincoln (3.4), indicating better attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Birmingham's of 70% to win is supported by their superior recent form and defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals per game compared to Lincoln's 2.8. Birmingham's attacking efficiency is also evident with higher shots on target per game. The of 22.4% at of 2.1 reflects a strong statistical case for an away win. No data limitations affect , making Birmingham a clear favorite based on current performance metrics and tactical stability.

Recent formBirmingham 10 points vs Lincoln 4
Strong positive
Defensive recordBirmingham concedes 0.6 goals vs Lincoln 2.8
Strong positive
Attacking threatBirmingham 5.2 SOT/game vs Lincoln 3.4
Positive
Value edge62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Birmingham's consistent defensive performance and superior recent form make them the tactical and statistical favorite to claim victory. Their ability to limit opponents' chances and create more shots on target underpins this confident away win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Birmingham's tactical and defensive strengths

“Birmingham's defensive discipline combined with effective attacking transitions positions them well to control this match and secure the win.”

Key Data Signals

Birmingham to Win evidence

Birmingham holds a strong recent form edge with 10 points from last five games versus Lincoln's 4.

Birmingham concedes only 0.6 goals per game recently, highlighting defensive resilience.

Lincoln's defense has been vulnerable, allowing 2.8 goals per game in recent matches.

Birmingham averages more shots on target (5.2) than Lincoln (3.4), indicating better attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Birmingham to Win notes

  • In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.67, indicating a moderately open game.
  • Lincoln's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, suggesting attacking openness, while Birmingham's defensive discipline may temper the overall goal count, pointing to a balanced contest with goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lincoln1.4
Avg goals scored
Birmingham2
Lincoln2.8
Avg goals conceded
Birmingham0.6
Lincoln60%
BTTS rate
Birmingham20%
Lincoln100%
Over 2.5 goals
Birmingham60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 85% vs implied 77% · edge +7.7 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Lincoln's recent matches have seen a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Birmingham's matches have a 60% over 2.5 rate. BTTS occurs 60% for Lincoln but only 20% for Birmingham, suggesting a match with goals but possibly a tighter defense from Birmingham limiting Lincoln's scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Championship analysisfull betting preview for Lincoln v Birminghamcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBirmingham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Birmingham Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 62.6% for Birmingham to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Birmingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Lincoln. Lincoln's five leading scorers have contributed 10 of the club's 13 Championship goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lincoln

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
24 Oct 2026H Burnley4-1
17 Oct 2026A Millwall2-2
14 Oct 2026H West Ham0-6
10 Oct 2026A Sheffield Utd0-3
19 Sep 2026H Swansea1-2

Birmingham

LWWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
24 Oct 2026A Cardiff0-1
17 Oct 2026H QPR3-0
13 Oct 2026H Preston4-0
10 Oct 2026A West Brom1-0
19 Sep 2026H Middlesbrough2-2
Market aligned with main pickBirmingham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Birmingham Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Birmingham's recent form is strong, accumulating 10 points in the last five matches with a solid defensive record conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Lincoln has struggled, earning only 4 points and conceding 2.8 goals per game, highlighting Birmingham's momentum advantage and defensive reliability as key factors.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Lincoln Over 2.5
60%Birmingham Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.67, indicating a moderately open game. Lincoln's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, suggesting attacking openness, while Birmingham's defensive discipline may temper the overall goal count, pointing to a balanced contest with goal-scoring opportunities.

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