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Lillestrom crestLillestrom
v
Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

Lillestrom v Real Sociedad Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 05:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lillestrom face Real Sociedad in UEFA Europa League on Thu 22 Oct, 20:00. Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad Preview: Basque Visitors Target First Europa League Victory. Real Sociedad's unbeaten away run with an average of three goals per game supports backing them to win by at least two goals.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Real Sociedad Asian Handicap -1

  • At 17/20, Real Sociedad Asian Handicap -1 implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 30%.
  • Lillestrom's European campaign has started disappointingly, with a 2-1 home defeat against Torreense followed by a 1-1 draw away to Sparta Prague.
  • Lillestrom have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Real Sociedad.
  • Lillestrom have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Real Sociedad Asian Handicap -1 angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Real Sociedad Asian Handicap -1 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 54% while the model sits nearer 30% (-23.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.75.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 30% for Real Sociedad Asian Handicap -1 sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. Lillestrom have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Real Sociedad. Lillestrom's European campaign has started disappointingly, with a 2-1 home defeat against Torreense followed by a 1-1 draw away to Sparta Prague.

Model chance vs price30% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Negative
Lillestrom have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lillestrom have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Lillestrom's European campaign has started disappointingly, with a 2-1.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lillestrom Win is the preferred angle because lillestrom's European campaign has started disappointingly, with a 2-1 home defeat against Torreense followed by a 1-1 draw away to Sparta Prague. Lillestrom have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Real Sociedad. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Real Sociedad Asian Handicap -1 evidence

Lillestrom's European campaign has started disappointingly, with a 2-1 home defeat against Torreense followed by a 1-1 draw.

Lillestrom have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Real Sociedad.

Lillestrom have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Lillestrom Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Real Sociedad Asian Handicap -1 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Lillestrom1
    Avg goals scored
    Real Sociedad1
    Lillestrom1
    Avg goals conceded
    Real Sociedad1.5
    Lillestrom75%
    BTTS rate
    Real Sociedad100%
    Lillestrom50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Real Sociedad50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Lillestrom

    DLWD
    Last 51W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 1L
    15 Oct 2026A Sparta Praha1-1
    17 Sep 2026H Torreense1-2
    27 Aug 2026H Egnatia Rrogozhinë2-1
    20 Aug 2026A Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-0

    Real Sociedad

    DL
    Last 50W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 1L
    15 Oct 2026A Union St. Gilloise1-1
    17 Sep 2026H Bournemouth1-2
    Market aligned with main pickLillestrom to WinBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 17% · edge +13.5 pts
    6
    Check odds @ 6
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Lillestrom Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 41%
    3.8
    Check odds @ 3.8
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLillestrom to WinBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 17% · edge +13.5 pts
    6
    Check odds @ 6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Lillestrom Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 41%
    3.8
    Check odds @ 3.8
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Lillestrom to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Lillestrom Over 2.5
    50%Real Sociedad Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lillestrom sit at 50% and Real Sociedad sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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