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Lille crestLille
v
Le Havre crestLe Havre

Ligue 1 | Sat 10 Oct, 16:15

Lille v Le Havre Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 01:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lille face Le Havre in Ligue 1 on Sat 10 Oct, 16:15. Le Havre’s recent two-goal performance and Lille’s Champions League rotation risk make a clean sheet unlikely, justifying the combined market choice. A 2-1 scoreline fits Lille’s attacking strength and Le Havre’s pattern of narrow defeats.

BT4Y best bet

Lille to win and Both Teams to Score

  • At 15/8, Lille to win and Both Teams to Score implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 47%.
  • Le Havre’s ability to score combined with Lille’s occasional defensive lapses supports this close result prediction.
  • Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Lille on 10 and Le Havre on 2.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 40% for Lille and 60% for Le Havre.
  • Lille to win and Both Teams to Score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.6 for Lille and 0.8 for Le Havre are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 47% for Lille to win and Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Lille on 10 and Le Havre on 2. Le Havre’s ability to score combined with Lille’s occasional defensive lapses supports this close result prediction.

Model chance vs price47% model chance against roughly 35% implied
Positive
Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Le Havre’s ability to score combined with Lille’s occasional.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lille Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because le Havre’s ability to score combined with Lille’s occasional defensive lapses supports this close result prediction. Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Lille on 10 and Le Havre on 2. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Lille to win and Both Teams to Score evidence

Le Havre’s ability to score combined with Lille’s occasional defensive lapses supports this close result prediction.

Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Lille on 10 and Le Havre on 2.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 40% for Lille and 60% for Le Havre.

Lille Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.6 for Lille and 0.8 for Le Havre are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Lille to win and Both Teams to Score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lille1.6
Avg goals scored
Le Havre0.8
Lille0.8
Avg goals conceded
Le Havre1.4
Lille40%
BTTS rate
Le Havre60%
Lille40%
Over 2.5 goals
Le Havre40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +14.6 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Lille to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Lille Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lille

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 1L
20 Sep 2026A Nice1-2
13 Sep 2026H Estac Troyes2-0
03 Sep 2026A Toulouse1-0
28 Aug 2026H Paris Saint Germain2-2
23 Aug 2026A Angers2-0

Le Havre

LDLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
19 Sep 2026A Toulouse2-3
12 Sep 2026H Angers0-0
05 Sep 2026H Stade Brestois 291-2
29 Aug 2026A Lyon1-1
23 Aug 2026H Monaco0-1
Market aligned with main pickLille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Lille to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lille Over 2.5
40%Le Havre Over 2.5
2.71H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lille sit at 40% and Le Havre sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.71 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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