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Leon crestLeon
v
CF Pachuca crestCF Pachuca

Liga MX | Sun 02 Aug, 02:00

Leon v CF Pachuca Stats

Data last updated: Sat 01 Aug 2026, 06:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Liga MX clash between Leon and CF Pachuca features contrasting recent form and attacking styles. CF Pachuca arrives with a perfect start, having secured three points and averaging 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, signaling an open attacking approach. Leon, despite a slow start with no points, shows potential in offensive transitions and set-piece threats. Both teams have shown willingness to engage in open play, promising a lively encounter with multiple goal-scoring opportunities. Tactical setups suggest a contest where defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited, making goal-scoring likely throughout the match.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • CF Pachuca has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating high-scoring matches.
  • Leon averages 13.5 shots per game with 5 on target, showing attacking intent.
  • The last 10 head-to-head matches averaged 2.6 goals, supporting goal potential.
  • Cambindo averages 4.29 shots per 90 minutes, highlighting offensive threat.
  • Rondón has 3 goals and 1.93 shots on target per 90, a key scoring figure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 69.7% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting strong attacking profiles and recent match trends. CF Pachuca’s perfect Over 2.5 record and Leon’s active shot volume underpin this probability. The average 2.6 goals in their last 10 meetings further supports the likelihood of multiple goals. Both teams’ offensive players, such as S. Cambindo, contribute significantly to shot and goal metrics, indicating sustained attacking pressure. No price warning is needed as the align well with the model’s , making this a solid value bet.

Model Probability69.7% chance of Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
CF Pachuca Over 2.5 Rate100% this season
Strong positive
Leon Shot Volume13.5 shots per game
Positive
H2H Average Goals2.6 goals per match
Positive
Key Player ThreatsS. Rondón and D. Cambindo high shot and goal rates
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game with both teams pushing forward to find goals. CF Pachuca’s strong offensive form combined with Leon’s active shot creation suggests multiple scoring opportunities. The data supports Over 2.5 Goals as a fitting prediction for this fixture, reflecting the teams’ tendencies and recent performances.

Main risk

A team may appear calm, organised and technically secure while circulating the ball, yet still cause very little concern inside the opposition penalty area.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking potential and goal likelihood

“This fixture promises a lively encounter with both sides possessing key attacking players capable of influencing the scoreline. The high shot volumes and recent goal trends point towards a match where goals are likely to flow.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

CF Pachuca has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating high-scoring matches.

Leon averages 13.5 shots per game with 5 on target, showing attacking intent.

The last 10 head-to-head matches averaged 2.6 goals, supporting goal potential.

Cambindo averages 4.29 shots per 90 minutes, highlighting offensive threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches have averaged 2.6 goals, indicating a historical trend towards open, goal-rich encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent Over 2.5 rates for both teams, suggests a match tempo conducive to multiple goals, driven by attacking intent and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Leon1
Avg goals scored
CF Pachuca2
Leon2
Avg goals conceded
CF Pachuca1
Leon50%
BTTS rate
CF Pachuca50%
Leon50%
Over 2.5 goals
CF Pachuca100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have shown a propensity for goals, with CF Pachuca’s matches consistently exceeding 2.5 goals and Leon contributing to open games with an average of 1 goal scored and 2 conceded so far. The 2.6 average goals in their head-to-head meetings further reinforce the expectation of multiple goals and potential BTTS scenarios.

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Useful next reads

full betting preview for Leon v CF Pachucacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
CF Pachuca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
CF Pachuca to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Leon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Leon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The Over 2.5 Goals market is well supported by model at nearly 70%, reflecting both teams’ offensive tendencies and recent scoring patterns. The absence of price warnings indicates the fairly represent the likelihood, making this a sensible betting angle rather than a speculative punt.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Leon8
Avg corners for
CF Pachuca2.5
Leon10.5
Avg total corners
CF Pachuca10
Leon2
Avg yellow cards
CF Pachuca1
Leon13.5
Avg shots
CF Pachuca14
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 58% · edge -2.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Leon’s average of 8 corners per game compared to CF Pachuca’s 2.5 suggests Leon’s attacking pressure down the flanks. Both teams maintain moderate yellow card averages, indicating a competitive but not overly aggressive match. Shot volumes are balanced, with Leon averaging 13.5 and CF Pachuca 14 shots per game, supporting sustained attacking phases.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Leon

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
25 Jul 2026A Club Tijuana0-1
18 Jul 2026H Atlas2-3

CF Pachuca

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
27 Jul 2026H Club Queretaro1-2
19 Jul 2026A U.N.A.M. - Pumas3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
CF Pachuca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
CF Pachuca to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Leon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Leon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
CF Pachuca’s perfect start with 3 points and 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Leon’s goalless opening and 50% Over 2.5 rate. Pachuca’s ability to consistently produce high-scoring games this season suggests momentum in attack, while Leon’s mixed form indicates potential for goals but also defensive vulnerabilities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Leon wins
2Draws
5CF Pachuca wins
14 Jan 2026CF Pachuca v Leon2-1
24 Aug 2025Leon v CF Pachuca1-1
06 Feb 2025CF Pachuca v Leon1-2
14 Jul 2024Leon v CF Pachuca0-0
08 Feb 2024CF Pachuca v Leon3-2
11 Jul 2023Leon v CF Pachuca4-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
CF Pachuca to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Leon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 10 previous meetings between Leon and CF Pachuca have produced an average of 2.6 goals per game, supporting the expectation of a lively, goal-filled contest. While the sample is moderate, the consistent scoring pattern highlights a history of open matches between these teams.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Liga MX

Leon2
Played
CF Pachuca2
Leon1
Avg goals for
CF Pachuca2
Leon2
Avg goals against
CF Pachuca1
Leon0
Clean sheets
CF Pachuca1
Best odds for this sectionCF Pachuca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
CF Pachuca to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Leon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Leon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Season-long data shows CF Pachuca’s matches consistently feature multiple goals, supported by their 100% Over 2.5 rate. Leon’s offensive numbers, including 13.5 shots per game and 50% Over 2.5 rate, indicate an attack capable of contributing to a high-scoring match. Defensive concessions by both sides further increase the likelihood of goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9CF Pachuca321012
16Leon02002-2
CF Pachuca sits mid-table with 3 points, reflecting a positive start, while Leon is near the bottom with no points yet. Although standings are early in the season, Pachuca’s position suggests better form and , which may translate into more attacking impetus and goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Leon Over 2.5
100%CF Pachuca Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches have averaged 2.6 goals, indicating a historical trend towards open, goal-rich encounters. This trend, combined with recent Over 2.5 rates for both teams, suggests a match tempo conducive to multiple goals, driven by attacking intent and defensive gaps.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Leon v CF Pachuca prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

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