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Leicester crestLeicester
v
Burton Albion crestBurton Albion

League One | Sat 22 Aug, 15:00

Leicester v Burton Albion Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Leicester City host Burton Albion in their first League One home fixture of the season, both sides seeking their first league win after opening 1-1 draws. Leicester, under new manager Russell Martin, are adapting to significant squad changes but remain unbeaten in competitive matches. Burton Albion, resilient under Gary Bowyer, have shown consistent scoring and defensive organisation, often keeping matches tight. This encounter promises a competitive test of Leicester's ability to convert possession into a decisive advantage against a Burton side accustomed to staying within striking distance.

BT4Y best bet

Leicester to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Leicester have failed to win by more than one goal in 19 of their last 20 league matches, indicating close scorelines.
  • Burton Albion have covered a one-goal handicap in 15 of their last 20 matches, showing resilience.
  • Both teams scored in their opening League One matches, suggesting offensive opportunities at both ends.
  • Leicester’s unbeaten start despite major squad turnover supports in their winning potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees Leicester to Win & Both Teams to Score as a balanced pick reflecting Leicester's pattern of narrow victories and Burton Albion's consistent scoring record. The combined chance aligns closely with the implied , indicating a fair price. Leicester's solid defensive record is tempered by Burton's ability to find the net, making BTTS plausible. The model notes a slight price sensitivity, recommending cautious stakes. No data limitations affect , and the pick fits the tactical and scoring profiles of both teams.

Leicester narrow wins pattern19 of last 20 league wins by one goal
Strong positive
Burton scoring consistencyScored in 3 of last 5 matches
Positive
Model chance vs implied odds31% model chance vs 32.3% implied odds
Neutral
Price sensitivitySlightly short price, suggests reduced stake
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Leicester's narrow winning margins combined with Burton Albion's resilience and scoring ability make Leicester to Win & Both Teams to Score a tactically sound pick. The data shows both teams are capable of scoring, but Leicester's defensive solidity means the match could remain close, fitting the narrow victory pattern. This bet captures the competitive nature of the fixture and the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring dynamics

“Leicester's pattern of close wins and Burton's knack for scoring under pressure create an intriguing dynamic where both teams are likely to find the net, but Leicester's home advantage should see them edge the victory.”

Key Data Signals

Leicester to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Leicester have failed to win by more than one goal in 19 of their last 20 league matches, indicating close scorelines.

Burton Albion have covered a one-goal handicap in 15 of their last 20 matches, showing resilience.

Both teams scored in their opening League One matches, suggesting offensive opportunities at both ends.

Leicester’s unbeaten start despite major squad turnover supports in their winning potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Leicester to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.83, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Both teams' recent matches have featured goals at both ends, supporting the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals.
  • The trend suggests a balanced tempo with opportunities for both sides to score, fitting the combined Leicester win and BTTS scenario.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Leicester1
Avg goals scored
Burton Albion1
Leicester1
Avg goals conceded
Burton Albion1
Leicester100%
BTTS rate
Burton Albion100%
Leicester0%
Over 2.5 goals
Burton Albion0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both Leicester and Burton have scored in their opening League One matches, supporting the BTTS aspect. Leicester's pattern of narrow wins and Burton's ability to score in most games suggest goals at both ends. However, Leicester's strong defensive start tempers expectations for a high-scoring game, aligning with a modest over/under route.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League One fixtures and predictionsLeicester v Burton Albion predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Leicester

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
15 Aug 2026A Notts County1-1

Burton Albion

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
15 Aug 2026H Stevenage1-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 88% · edge -14.7 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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Leicester Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Leicester to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Both teams have started the season with 1-1 draws, reflecting balanced momentum. Leicester's unbeaten run includes a narrow EFL Cup win and a league draw, showing competitive but controlled performances. Burton's recent matches demonstrate consistent scoring and defensive solidity, maintaining close scorelines. This form data supports a tight match with goals from both sides but no dominant performance.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
12Leicester110100
15Burton Albion110100
Leicester and Burton Albion sit mid-table early in the League One season, both with one point from their opening matches. The standings reflect the early stage of the campaign and do not heavily influence the match outcome, which is more dependent on tactical adjustments and squad changes than league pressure at this point.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLeicester Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 77% · edge -23.4 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Leicester to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The Leicester to Win & Both Teams to Score market is priced slightly short compared to the model's 31% chance, reflecting bookmaker caution around Leicester's home advantage and Burton's scoring threat. While not a strong value bet, the fairly represent the competitive balance and narrow margins typical of recent matches involving both teams.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Leicester5
Avg corners for
Burton Albion2
Leicester8
Avg total corners
Burton Albion2
Leicester1
Avg yellow cards
Burton Albion0
Leicester11
Avg shots
Burton Albion10
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 29%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Leicester averages 5 corners per game compared to Burton's 2, indicating territorial advantage and attacking pressure. Both teams average 1-2 shots on target per match, reflecting balanced offensive efforts. Leicester's slightly higher yellow card average suggests a more aggressive midfield presence, which could influence game tempo and set-piece opportunities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Leicester wins
1Draws
1Burton Albion wins
18 Jul 2026Burton Albion v Leicester0-3
09 Aug 2023Burton Albion v Leicester0-2
24 Jul 2021Burton Albion v Leicester0-0
29 Oct 2019Burton Albion v Leicester1-3
05 Jan 2013Leicester v Burton Albion2-0
28 Aug 2012Leicester v Burton Albion2-4
Market aligned with main pickLeicester to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 65% · edge -22.4 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The six most recent meetings between Leicester and Burton Albion have averaged 2.83 goals per game, showing a moderate scoring rate. The pattern of close matches with goals supports the Leicester to Win & Both Teams to Score pick, though the head-to-head sample is limited and should be considered alongside current form and tactical context.
Season team stats

League One

Leicester1
Played
Burton Albion1
Leicester1
Avg goals for
Burton Albion1
Leicester1
Avg goals against
Burton Albion1
Leicester0
Clean sheets
Burton Albion0
Market aligned with main pickLeicester Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 77% · edge -23.4 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Leicester to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Leicester's season stats reveal a tendency for narrow victories and limited multiple-goal wins, indicating a controlled but effective attack. Burton's stats show frequent close matches with goals scored in most games, reinforcing their reputation for resilience and offensive threat. These profiles align well with the Leicester to Win & Both Teams to Score pick, emphasizing a competitive game with goals at both ends.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Leicester Over 2.5
0%Burton Albion Over 2.5
2.83H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.83, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. Both teams' recent matches have featured goals at both ends, supporting the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals. The trend suggests a balanced tempo with opportunities for both sides to score, fitting the combined Leicester win and BTTS scenario.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Leicester v Burton Albion prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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