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Leganes crestLeganes
v
Mallorca crestMallorca

Segunda División | Sat 24 Oct, 15:15

Leganes v Mallorca Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mallorca visits Leganes in this Segunda División clash with a clear edge in recent form and league standing. Mallorca sits comfortably in 6th place with 18 points, while Leganes struggles near the relegation zone in 17th with 11 points. Mallorca's defense has been notably solid, conceding only 0.6 goals per game compared to Leganes' 2.4, and Mallorca has collected 8 points in their last matches versus Leganes' 3. This match presents Mallorca with a chance to extend their positive momentum against a side that has struggled to find the net consistently, setting up a tactical battle where Mallorca's defensive discipline and attacking efficiency could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Mallorca to Win

  • Mallorca ranks 6th with 18 points; Leganes is 17th with 11 points.
  • Mallorca concedes just 0.6 goals per game; Leganes concedes 2.4 on average.
  • Mallorca has earned 8 points recently, Leganes only 3 in the same period.
  • Mallorca averages 12.6 shots per game with 3.6 on target, matching Leganes' shot volume.
  • Mallorca’s Fuentes leads with 6 goals and strong shot accuracy, boosting their attack.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Mallorca's chances to win at 70%, reflecting their superior defensive record and recent form. Mallorca's ability to limit opponents to fewer goals and maintain steady attacking pressure, combined with Leganes' struggles to score and defend, creates a strong football read. Mallorca's offensive threat, led by Fuentes with 6 goals and over one shot on target per 90 minutes, supports the likelihood of them securing victory. The price at 2.3 offers positive value given the implied chance is only 43.5%.

Defensive SolidityMallorca concedes 0.6 goals per game vs Leganes' 2.4
Strong positive
Recent FormMallorca earned 8 points recently vs Leganes' 3
Strong positive
Attacking ThreatFuentes with 6 goals and 1.19 shots on target per 90
Positive
Price Value58.5% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Mallorca's strong defensive record and recent points haul make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Their ability to contain Leganes' attack and capitalize on chances, especially through key players like Fuentes, underpins this pick. Leganes' struggles in defense and scoring reduce their chances of upsetting the visitors.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Mallorca’s disciplined defense and efficient attack, spearheaded by Fuentes, give them a clear edge in this matchup. Leganes’ defensive vulnerabilities and lower recent form make Mallorca the favored side to claim victory.”

Key Data Signals

Mallorca to Win evidence

Mallorca ranks 6th with 18 points; Leganes is 17th with 11 points.

Mallorca concedes just 0.6 goals per game; Leganes concedes 2.4 on average.

Mallorca has earned 8 points recently, Leganes only 3 in the same period.

Mallorca averages 12.6 shots per game with 3.6 on target, matching Leganes' shot volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Mallorca to Win notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 1 per game, indicating tight contests.
  • However, Mallorca’s recent matches show a lower rate of Over 2.5 goals (20%) compared to Leganes’ 60%, suggesting Mallorca’s games tend to be more controlled and defensive.
  • This trend points to a likely low-scoring match with Mallorca’s defense limiting Leganes’ scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Leganes0.6
Avg goals scored
Mallorca1
Leganes2.4
Avg goals conceded
Mallorca0.6
Leganes20%
BTTS rate
Mallorca40%
Leganes60%
Over 2.5 goals
Mallorca20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams show contrasting goal trends: Leganes averages just 0.6 goals per game with a low BTTS rate of 20%, while Mallorca scores 1 goal per game and has a 40% BTTS rate. The low average goals in their head-to-head (1 goal per match over 6 games) suggests a cautious game, but Mallorca’s stronger attack could tip the balance towards goals from their side only.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMallorca to WinBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Mallorca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 58.5% for Mallorca to Win sits against roughly 43.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Mallorca have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Leganes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Leganes

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
16 Oct 2026H Cordoba0-1
11 Oct 2026A Almeria0-3
03 Oct 2026A Cadiz0-4
28 Sep 2026H Castellón0-2
20 Sep 2026H Granada CF3-2

Mallorca

DWDLW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
17 Oct 2026A Eibar1-1
11 Oct 2026H Las Palmas3-1
04 Oct 2026A Girona0-0
27 Sep 2026H Almeria0-1
19 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad II1-0
Market aligned with main pickMallorca to WinBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Mallorca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Recent form heavily favors Mallorca, who have collected 8 points compared to Leganes’ 3 in the same period. Mallorca’s defensive resilience and ability to secure points away from home contrast with Leganes’ struggles to score and prevent goals. This momentum difference suggests Mallorca enter the match with and tactical stability.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Leganes Over 2.5
20%Mallorca Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 1 per game, indicating tight contests. However, Mallorca’s recent matches show a lower rate of Over 2.5 goals (20%) compared to Leganes’ 60%, suggesting Mallorca’s games tend to be more controlled and defensive. This trend points to a likely low-scoring match with Mallorca’s defense limiting Leganes’ scoring chances.

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