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Premier League | Sun 17 May, 15:00

Leeds v Brighton Stats

Data last updated: Sun 21 Jun 2026, 01:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Leeds face Brighton in Premier League on Sun 17 May, 15:00. Elland Road has always had a habit of turning ordinary league fixtures into emotional theatre, and this Sunday should be no different.

BT4Y best bet

Scoring Leeds side sets the stage for an away win where both nets bulge

  • At 11/4, Brighton Win implies roughly 27%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 37%.
  • Leeds are scoring regularly but no longer look fully secure defensively at home, while Brighton have developed a stubborn scoring rhythm that refuses.
  • Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 10 for Brighton.
  • Leeds have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Brighton Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Leeds sit 14 in the table, while Brighton sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 37% for Brighton Win sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price. Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 10 for Brighton. Leeds are scoring regularly but no longer look fully secure defensively at home, while Brighton have developed a stubborn scoring rhythm that refuses.

Model chance vs price37% model chance against roughly 27% implied
Positive
Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Leeds have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Leeds are scoring regularly but no longer look fully.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Brighton Win is the preferred angle because leeds are scoring regularly but no longer look fully secure defensively at home, while Brighton have developed a stubborn scoring rhythm that refuses to disappear. Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 10 for Brighton. Leeds are at their best when playing aggressively, but aggression against Brighton carries risk.

Main risk

Leeds are at their best when playing aggressively, but aggression against Brighton carries risk.

Key Data Signals

Brighton Win evidence

Leeds are scoring regularly but no longer look fully secure defensively at home, while Brighton have developed a.

Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 10 for Brighton.

Leeds have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Brighton Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Leeds sit 14 in the table, while Brighton sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Brighton Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Leeds2.2
    Avg goals scored
    Brighton2.2
    Leeds1
    Avg goals conceded
    Brighton1
    Leeds80%
    BTTS rate
    Brighton40%
    Leeds80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Brighton80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 48% · edge -10.8 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Brighton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Brighton to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Leeds3.4
    Avg corners for
    Brighton6
    Leeds12
    Avg total corners
    Brighton10.6
    Leeds1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Brighton1.4
    Leeds14.2
    Avg shots
    Brighton13
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.1 pts
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Leeds

    DWDWW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 5D 2L
    11 May 2026A Tottenham1-1
    01 May 2026H Burnley3-1
    22 Apr 2026A Bournemouth2-2
    18 Apr 2026H Wolves3-0
    13 Apr 2026A Manchester United2-1

    Brighton

    WLWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 1D 2L
    09 May 2026H Wolves3-0
    02 May 2026A Newcastle1-3
    21 Apr 2026H Chelsea3-0
    18 Apr 2026A Tottenham2-2
    11 Apr 2026A Burnley2-0
    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 48% · edge -10.8 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Brighton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Leeds wins
    3Draws
    6Brighton wins
    01 Nov 2025Brighton v Leeds3-0
    11 Mar 2023Leeds v Brighton2-2
    27 Aug 2022Brighton v Leeds1-0
    15 May 2022Leeds v Brighton1-1
    27 Nov 2021Brighton v Leeds0-0
    01 May 2021Brighton v Leeds2-0
    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 48% · edge -10.8 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Brighton to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Leeds38
    Played
    Brighton38
    Leeds1.3
    Avg goals for
    Brighton1.4
    Leeds1.5
    Avg goals against
    Brighton1.2
    Leeds8
    Clean sheets
    Brighton10
    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 48% · edge -10.8 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Brighton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Season data supports Brighton to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8Brighton53381411136
    14Leeds4738111413-7
    Leeds sit in position 14, while Brighton sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Brighton Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Leeds Over 2.5
    80%Brighton Over 2.5
    2.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Leeds sit at 80% and Brighton sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Leeds v Brighton prediction

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    Betting context

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