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Lech Poznan crestLech Poznan
v
Wisla Krakow crestWisla Krakow

Ekstraklasa | Sat 31 Oct, 16:30

Lech Poznan v Wisla Krakow Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lech Poznan hosts Wisla Krakow in a high-stakes Ekstraklasa clash where attacking intent is clear. Lech Poznan leads the league and boasts a potent offense averaging 3.6 goals per recent matches, while Wisla Krakow, ranked fifth, maintains a solid defense but has shown vulnerability conceding 0.8 goals on average. Both teams have mixed recent form, with Lech Poznan's perfect over 2.5 goals rate contrasting Wisla Krakow's more cautious approach. This fixture promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities as Lech Poznan pushes to maintain their lead and Wisla Krakow seeks to close the gap.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Lech Poznan averages 3.6 goals scored recently, indicating strong attacking form
  • Lech Poznan has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches
  • Wisla Krakow concedes only 0.8 goals on average but has a lower BTTS rate at 40%
  • Head-to-head matches average over 3 goals, supporting a high-scoring game
  • Lech Poznan’s K. Delikat averages 7.5 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes, boosting scoring chances

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 51.7% chance, slightly above the implied market chance of 47.6%, indicating a small positive . Lech Poznan's recent matches show prolific scoring and consistent high shot volumes, especially from key players like K. Wisla Krakow's defense is solid but has conceded goals in recent fixtures, and the head-to-head average of 3.13 goals suggests an open game. The combination of attacking pressure and historical goal trends supports the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.

Lech Poznan recent goals scored3.6 per match
Strong positive
Lech Poznan over 2.5 goals rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Wisla Krakow defensive concession0.8 goals per match
Neutral
Head-to-head average goals3.13 goals per match
Positive
Model chance vs implied chance51.7% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+4.1 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Lech Poznan’s offensive firepower meets Wisla Krakow’s resilient defense. Lech Poznan’s recent scoring form and aggressive shot metrics suggest multiple goals, while Wisla Krakow’s attempts to contain the hosts may still allow for a high-scoring match. Over 3.5 Goals is a fitting selection given the attacking dynamics and historical goal averages.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking pressure

“Lech Poznan’s relentless attacking style combined with Wisla Krakow’s occasional defensive lapses sets the stage for a goal-rich encounter. The data highlights key players driving shot volume and goal threat, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling angle in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Lech Poznan averages 3.6 goals scored recently, indicating strong attacking form

Lech Poznan has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches

Wisla Krakow concedes only 0.8 goals on average but has a lower BTTS rate at 40%

Head-to-head matches average over 3 goals, supporting a high-scoring game

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.13, indicating a trend toward open, high-scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a tempo favoring multiple goals, with both teams historically contributing to the scoreline, supporting Over 2.5 Goals as a relevant trend for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lech Poznan3.6
Avg goals scored
Wisla Krakow1.2
Lech Poznan1.2
Avg goals conceded
Wisla Krakow0.8
Lech Poznan100%
BTTS rate
Wisla Krakow40%
Lech Poznan100%
Over 2.5 goals
Wisla Krakow40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 48% · edge +4.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Lech Poznan’s perfect recent over 2.5 goals rate and 100% BTTS rate contrast with Wisla Krakow’s more conservative 40% BTTS rate. The head-to-head average of 3.13 goals supports a high-scoring game, with Lech Poznan’s offensive control likely to produce multiple goals and Wisla Krakow contributing occasionally to the scoreline.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Lech Poznan to WinBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Lech Poznan Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Wisla Krakow Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Wisla Krakow to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
The 51.7% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+4.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Lech Poznan and 40% for Wisla Krakow, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lech Poznan

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 109W 0D 1L
25 Oct 2026A Legia Warszawa2-1
18 Oct 2026H Korona Kielce6-1
10 Oct 2026A Slask Wroclaw4-1
20 Sep 2026H Radomiak Radom5-1
12 Sep 2026A Gornik Zabrze1-2

Wisla Krakow

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
24 Oct 2026H Raków Częstochowa2-1
16 Oct 2026A Widzew Łódź0-0
11 Oct 2026A Legia Warszawa0-2
18 Sep 2026H Slask Wroclaw2-1
11 Sep 2026H Jagiellonia2-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 82% · edge +4 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
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Lech Poznan to WinBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Lech Poznan Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Wisla Krakow Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Wisla Krakow to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Lech Poznan’s recent form is characterized by prolific scoring, netting an average of 3.6 goals per match and maintaining a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, signaling consistent offensive control. Wisla Krakow’s form is more restrained, with lower goal output and a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating a more cautious approach but still capable of contributing to a high-scoring fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Lech Poznan Over 2.5
40%Wisla Krakow Over 2.5
3.13H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.13, indicating a trend toward open, high-scoring games. This sample suggests a tempo favoring multiple goals, with both teams historically contributing to the scoreline, supporting Over 2.5 Goals as a relevant trend for this fixture.

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