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Lecco crestLecco
v
Folgore Caratese crestFolgore Caratese

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 25 Oct, 16:30

Lecco v Folgore Caratese Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lecco hosts Folgore Caratese in a Serie C - Girone A clash where Lecco's recent form and league standing give them a clear edge. Sitting 9th with 13 points, Lecco has shown better offensive output and defensive resilience compared to Folgore Caratese, who are 19th with 6 points. Lecco averages 1.6 goals per game and has a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating an attacking approach. Folgore Caratese’s lower scoring and higher goals conceded suggest defensive vulnerabilities. This fixture offers Lecco a chance to consolidate their mid-table position against a struggling opponent.

BT4Y best bet

Lecco to Win

  • Lecco ranks 9th with 13 points, Folgore Caratese 19th with 6 points
  • Lecco averages 1.6 goals per game, Folgore Caratese 0.8
  • Lecco concedes 1.2 goals per game, Folgore Caratese 1.4
  • Lecco’s matches go over 2.5 goals 60% of the time
  • Folgore Caratese has a higher BTTS rate at 60%, Lecco 40%

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lecco to win with a 58.5% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and league position. Lecco’s stronger attack, averaging double the goals per game of Folgore Caratese, combined with a solid defensive record, supports this. The implied of 1.83 offer a small positive , indicating the price fairly rewards Lecco’s likelihood to secure victory. No data limitations affect , making this a standard stake recommendation based on consistent performance metrics.

Model chance58.5% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+5.9 pts)
Strong positive
Implied chance58.5% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+5.9 pts)
Positive
Value edge58.5% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+5.9 pts)
Positive
Recent goals scoredLecco 1.6 vs Folgore Caratese 0.8
Strong positive
Recent goals concededLecco 1.2 vs Folgore Caratese 1.4
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lecco’s stronger league position and superior goal-scoring form make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Their ability to control matches and convert chances contrasts with Folgore Caratese’s struggles in attack and defense, suggesting Lecco can secure the three points with tactical discipline and offensive efficiency.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lecco’s consistent attacking output and mid-table stability give them a clear tactical advantage here, especially against a Folgore Caratese side that has struggled to find the net and maintain defensive solidity.”

Key Data Signals

Lecco to Win evidence

Lecco ranks 9th with 13 points, Folgore Caratese 19th with 6 points

Lecco averages 1.6 goals per game, Folgore Caratese 0.8

Lecco concedes 1.2 goals per game, Folgore Caratese 1.4

Lecco’s matches go over 2.5 goals 60% of the time

What To Watch In The Data

Lecco to Win notes

  • Over the recent matches, Lecco’s 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests a tendency for open, attacking games.
  • Folgore Caratese’s lower 40% rate indicates fewer high-scoring matches.
  • This trend points to a match likely featuring multiple goals, driven by Lecco’s offensive approach and Folgore Caratese’s defensive challenges.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lecco

WDDLD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
16 Oct 2026A PRO Vercelli5-0
11 Oct 2026H Alcione1-1
04 Oct 2026H Union Brescia2-2
26 Sep 2026A Cittadella0-3
20 Sep 2026H Pergolettese0-0

Folgore Caratese

LLLWD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
17 Oct 2026H Treviso0-2
11 Oct 2026A Trento0-1
03 Oct 2026H Desenzano Calvina1-2
26 Sep 2026A Lumezzane2-1
20 Sep 2026H Giana Erminio1-1
Market aligned with main pickLecco to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 53% · edge +5.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Lecco Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Lecco’s recent form shows 6 points gained with a positive goal difference, reflecting effective attacking and defensive balance. Folgore Caratese’s 4 points and lower scoring rate highlight their struggles to secure results. This form disparity underpins the in Lecco’s ability to control the match and secure victory.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lecco1.6
Avg goals scored
Folgore Caratese0.8
Lecco1.2
Avg goals conceded
Folgore Caratese1.4
Lecco40%
BTTS rate
Folgore Caratese60%
Lecco60%
Over 2.5 goals
Folgore Caratese40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Lecco’s matches have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, driven by their 1.6 goals per game average. Folgore Caratese’s 60% BTTS rate suggests they concede and score regularly, which could contribute to an open game with multiple goals. This combination supports expectations of a lively match with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLecco to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 53% · edge +5.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Lecco Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 58.5% for Lecco to Win sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+5.9 pts). Lecco have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Folgore Caratese.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Lecco Over 2.5
40%Folgore Caratese Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the recent matches, Lecco’s 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests a tendency for open, attacking games. Folgore Caratese’s lower 40% rate indicates fewer high-scoring matches. This trend points to a match likely featuring multiple goals, driven by Lecco’s offensive approach and Folgore Caratese’s defensive challenges.

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