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Lecce crestLecce
v
Juventus crestJuventus

Serie A | Sat 09 May, 19:45

Lecce v Juventus Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 09:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lecce face Juventus in Serie A on Sat 09 May, 19:45. Juventus are unbeaten in five league matches and possess the division's second-best defence. Six consecutive Juventus fixtures have averaged only 1.5 total goals, while Lecce fail to score in the majority of their matches.

BT4Y best bet

Line, Juventus possess enough quality in wide areas and enough vertical passing ability to punish them quickly

  • At 9/2, Line, Juventus possess enough quality in wide areas and enough vertical passing ability to punish them quickly implies roughly 18%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 33%.
  • Set pieces could also become vital because open-play chance creation has not been reliable enough.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Lecce and 0% for Juventus, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Juventus are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2 goals per match, with Lecce at 0.6.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Lecce and 20% for Juventus show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 33% for Line, Juventus possess enough quality in wide areas and enough vertical passing ability to punish them quickly sits against roughly 18% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Lecce and 0% for Juventus, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Set pieces could also become vital because open-play chance creation has not been reliable enough.

Model chance vs price33% model chance against roughly 18% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Lecce and 0%.Visible data support
Positive
Juventus are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2.Visible data support
Positive
Set pieces could also become vital because open-play chance.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because under 2.5 goals has landed in Juventus’ last seven matches. Juventus are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Lecce at 0.6. Lecce welcome Juventus to the Via del Mare with completely different ambitions but equally heavy pressure on their shoulders.

Main risk

Lecce welcome Juventus to the Via del Mare with completely different ambitions but equally heavy pressure on their shoulders.

Key Data Signals

Line, Juventus possess enough quality in wide areas and enough vertical passing ability to punish them quickly evidence

Under 2.5 goals has landed in Juventus’ last seven matches.

Juventus are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2 goals per match, with Lecce at 0.6.

BTTS rates of 40% for Lecce and 20% for Juventus show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Line, Juventus possess enough quality in wide areas and enough vertical passing ability to punish them quickly notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lecce3.6
Avg corners for
Juventus6
Lecce8.2
Avg total corners
Juventus10.2
Lecce2.2
Avg yellow cards
Juventus2.4
Lecce10
Avg shots
Juventus15.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lecce0.6
Avg goals scored
Juventus1.2
Lecce1.4
Avg goals conceded
Juventus0.2
Lecce40%
BTTS rate
Juventus20%
Lecce40%
Over 2.5 goals
Juventus0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Juventus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Juventus to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lecce to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Lecce Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lecce

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
01 May 2026A Pisa2-1
25 Apr 2026A Hellas Verona0-0
20 Apr 2026H Fiorentina1-1
12 Apr 2026A Bologna0-2
06 Apr 2026H Atalanta0-3

Juventus

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
03 May 2026H Hellas Verona1-1
26 Apr 2026A AC Milan0-0
19 Apr 2026H Bologna2-0
11 Apr 2026A Atalanta1-0
06 Apr 2026H Genoa2-0
Best odds for this sectionJuventus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.81
Check odds @ 2.81
Juventus to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Lecce to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Lecce Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Lecce wins
4Draws
6Juventus wins
03 Jan 2026Juventus v Lecce1-1
12 Apr 2025Juventus v Lecce2-1
01 Dec 2024Lecce v Juventus1-1
21 Jan 2024Lecce v Juventus0-3
26 Sep 2023Juventus v Lecce1-0
03 May 2023Juventus v Lecce2-1
Best odds for this sectionJuventus to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 69% · edge +0.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Lecce to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The head-to-head sample gives context for Juventus to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie A

Lecce38
Played
Juventus38
Lecce0.7
Avg goals for
Juventus1.6
Lecce1.3
Avg goals against
Juventus0.9
Lecce10
Clean sheets
Juventus16
Best odds for this sectionJuventus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Juventus to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lecce to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Lecce Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season data supports Juventus Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Juventus69381912727
17Lecce383810820-22
Lecce sit in position 17, while Juventus sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Line, Juventus possess enough quality in wide areas and enough vertical passing ability to punish them quickly assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lecce Over 2.5
0%Juventus Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lecce sit at 40% and Juventus sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.