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Lecce crestLecce
v
Genoa crestGenoa

Serie A | Sun 24 May, 19:45

Lecce v Genoa Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 17:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lecce face Genoa in Serie A on Sun 24 May, 19:45. Lecce have won just two of their last 10 home league matches at the Via del Mare. They have found form with two wins in three games, scoring multiple goals in every single one of their 2026 victories.

BT4Y best bet

Lecce to Win & Over 1

  • At 13/10, Lecce to Win & Over 1 implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • Lecce have won just two of their last 10 home matches, making a fast start in front of their fans absolutely vital.
  • Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Genoa.
  • Lecce have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Lecce to Win & Over 1 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Lecce sit 17 in the table, while Genoa sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for Lecce to Win & Over 1 sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Genoa. Lecce have won just two of their last 10 home matches, making a fast start in front of their fans absolutely vital.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Strong positive
Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lecce have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Lecce have won just two of their last 10.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lecce Win is the preferred angle because lecce have won just two of their last 10 home matches, making a fast start in front of their fans absolutely vital. Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Genoa. Genoa are safe but winless in four matches, dropping emotional intensity completely late in the campaign.

Main risk

Genoa are safe but winless in four matches, dropping emotional intensity completely late in the campaign.

Key Data Signals

Lecce to Win & Over 1 evidence

Lecce have won just two of their last 10 home matches, making a fast start in front of.

Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Genoa.

Lecce have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Lecce Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Lecce sit 17 in the table, while Genoa sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Lecce to Win & Over 1 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Lecce1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Genoa0.6
    Lecce1
    Avg goals conceded
    Genoa1
    Lecce60%
    BTTS rate
    Genoa40%
    Lecce40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Genoa40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.1 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Serie A fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Lecce

    WLWDD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    17 May 2026A Sassuolo3-2
    09 May 2026H Juventus0-1
    01 May 2026A Pisa2-1
    25 Apr 2026A Hellas Verona0-0
    20 Apr 2026H Fiorentina1-1

    Genoa

    LDDLW
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    17 May 2026H AC Milan1-2
    10 May 2026A Fiorentina0-0
    02 May 2026A Atalanta0-0
    26 Apr 2026H Como0-2
    19 Apr 2026A Pisa2-1
    Market aligned with main pickLecce to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Lecce Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    16Genoa4138101117-10
    17Lecce383810820-22
    Lecce sit in position 17, while Genoa sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the Lecce to Win & Over 1 assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLecce to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Lecce Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Lecce to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Lecce3.8
    Avg corners for
    Genoa3.2
    Lecce7.6
    Avg total corners
    Genoa7.6
    Lecce2.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Genoa1
    Lecce10.4
    Avg shots
    Genoa9.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 51% · edge +12.2 pts
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Lecce wins
    4Draws
    5Genoa wins
    23 Aug 2025Genoa v Lecce0-0
    14 Mar 2025Genoa v Lecce2-1
    05 Jan 2025Lecce v Genoa0-0
    28 Jan 2024Genoa v Lecce2-1
    22 Sep 2023Lecce v Genoa1-0
    19 Jul 2020Genoa v Lecce2-1
    Market aligned with main pickLecce to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Lecce to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Lecce38
    Played
    Genoa38
    Lecce0.7
    Avg goals for
    Genoa1.1
    Lecce1.3
    Avg goals against
    Genoa1.3
    Lecce10
    Clean sheets
    Genoa9
    Market aligned with main pickLecce to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Lecce Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Season data supports Lecce to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Lecce Over 2.5
    40%Genoa Over 2.5
    2.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lecce sit at 40% and Genoa sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Lecce v Genoa prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    Serie A hubSerie A fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre