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Lecce crestLecce
v
Fiorentina crestFiorentina

Serie A | Sun 16 May, 17:30

Lecce v Fiorentina Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lecce face Fiorentina in Serie A on Sun 16 May, 17:30. Fiorentina have recently specialised in the 1-0 scoreline, securing back-to-back league wins by this exact margin. Fiorentina arrive in excellent form, remaining unbeaten in eight of their last nine Serie A fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

Kicks in wide areas and load the box, Fiorentina will not enjoy that

  • Kicks in wide areas and load the box, Fiorentina will not enjoy that is rated around 51% by the current BT4Y model.
  • This is a survival scrap away from home against a desperate side with width, physicality and urgency.
  • Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Fiorentina.
  • Lecce have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded per match, which helps the Kicks in wide areas and load the box, Fiorentina will not enjoy that angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Lecce sit 12 in the table, while Fiorentina sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Kicks in wide areas and load the box, Fiorentina will not enjoy that around 51% on the latest available numbers. Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Fiorentina. This is a survival scrap away from home against a desperate side with width, physicality and urgency.

Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lecce have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
This is a survival scrap away from home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lecce Win is the preferred angle because this is a survival scrap away from home against a desperate side with width, physicality and urgency. Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Fiorentina. For Fiorentina, the risk is different.

Main risk

For Fiorentina, the risk is different.

Key Data Signals

Kicks in wide areas and load the box, Fiorentina will not enjoy that evidence

This is a survival scrap away from home against a desperate side with width, physicality and urgency.

Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Fiorentina.

Lecce have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded per match, which helps the Lecce Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Lecce sit 12 in the table, while Fiorentina sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Kicks in wide areas and load the box, Fiorentina will not enjoy that notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Lecce1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Fiorentina1.6
    Lecce1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Fiorentina2
    Lecce40%
    BTTS rate
    Fiorentina100%
    Lecce80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Fiorentina80%

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Lecce

    LWLLW
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 0D 5L
    25 Oct 2026H Juventus0-2
    18 Oct 2026A Udinese3-0
    11 Oct 2026H Bologna1-2
    20 Sep 2026A AC Milan0-3
    13 Sep 2026H Monza3-2

    Fiorentina

    LLLDW
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 6L
    25 Oct 2026A Inter1-2
    18 Oct 2026H Como1-3
    10 Oct 2026A Genoa1-2
    20 Sep 2026H Napoli1-1
    11 Sep 2026A Venezia4-2

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Lecce Over 2.5
    80%Fiorentina Over 2.5
    2.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lecce sit at 80% and Fiorentina sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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