Football Stats Hub

Le Havre crestLe Havre
v
Marseille crestMarseille

Ligue 1 | Sun 10 May, 20:00

Le Havre v Marseille Stats

Data last updated: Fri 31 Jul 2026, 04:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Le Havre face Marseille in Ligue 1 on Sun 10 May, 20:00. Given Marseille have lost five of their last six away league games and look emotionally fragile, the hosts have enough stubbornness to ensure they don't leave empty-handed at Stade Océane tonight.

BT4Y best bet

Correct Score – 1-1 Draw Predicting a 1-1 draw aligns perfectly with the current statistical trends of both clubs

  • At 5/1, Correct Score – 1-1 Draw Predicting a 1-1 draw aligns perfectly with the current statistical trends of both clubs implies roughly 17%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 32%.
  • 🎯 Pick 1: Double Chance – Le Havre or Draw
  • Le Havre show a 100% BTTS rate and Marseille show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Le Havre average 1.6 goals scored and Marseille average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 32% for Correct Score – 1-1 Draw Predicting a 1-1 draw aligns perfectly with the current statistical trends of both clubs sits against roughly 17% implied by the current price. Le Havre show a 100% BTTS rate and Marseille show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. 🎯 Pick 1: Double Chance – Le Havre or Draw

Model chance vs price32% model chance against roughly 17% implied
Strong positive
Le Havre show a 100% BTTS rate and Marseille show.Visible data support
Positive
Le Havre average 1.6 goals scored and Marseille average 1.Visible data support
Positive
🎯 Pick 1: Double Chance – Le Havre.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because 🎯 Pick 1: Double Chance – Le Havre or Draw Le Havre show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Marseille show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Marseille have struggled to score away lately but possess superior individual quality, making a competitive 1-1 outcome a strong statistical fit for this tense encounter.

Main risk

Marseille have struggled to score away lately but possess superior individual quality, making a competitive 1-1 outcome a strong statistical fit for this tense encounter.

Key Data Signals

Correct Score – 1-1 Draw Predicting a 1-1 draw aligns perfectly with the current statistical trends of both clubs evidence

🎯 Pick 1: Double Chance – Le Havre or Draw

Le Havre show a 100% BTTS rate and Marseille show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Le Havre average 1.6 goals scored and Marseille average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Correct Score – 1-1 Draw Predicting a 1-1 draw aligns perfectly with the current statistical trends of both clubs notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Le Havre1.6
Avg goals scored
Marseille1
Le Havre1.6
Avg goals conceded
Marseille1.8
Le Havre100%
BTTS rate
Marseille60%
Le Havre20%
Over 2.5 goals
Marseille60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Le Havre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Le Havre to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Marseille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Le Havre4.2
Avg corners for
Marseille7.4
Le Havre10.6
Avg total corners
Marseille10
Le Havre2.4
Avg yellow cards
Marseille2.6
Le Havre10.6
Avg shots
Marseille18.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 51% · edge +12.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Le Havre

DDDDD
Last 50W 5D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 6D 4L
03 May 2026A Lille1-1
26 Apr 2026H Metz4-4
18 Apr 2026A Angers1-1
12 Apr 2026A Nice1-1
05 Apr 2026H Auxerre1-1

Marseille

LDLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
02 May 2026A Nantes0-3
26 Apr 2026H Nice1-1
18 Apr 2026A Lorient0-2
10 Apr 2026H Metz3-1
05 Apr 2026A Monaco1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.77
Check odds @ 1.77
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Le Havre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Le Havre to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Marseille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Marseille to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Le Havre wins
0Draws
6Marseille wins
18 Oct 2025Marseille v Le Havre6-2
10 May 2025Le Havre v Marseille1-3
05 Jan 2025Marseille v Le Havre5-1
19 May 2024Le Havre v Marseille1-2
08 Oct 2023Marseille v Le Havre3-0
22 Jan 2012Marseille v Le Havre3-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Le Havre to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Marseille to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ligue 1

Le Havre34
Played
Marseille34
Le Havre0.9
Avg goals for
Marseille1.9
Le Havre1.3
Avg goals against
Marseille1.3
Le Havre8
Clean sheets
Marseille9
Best odds for this sectionLe Havre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Le Havre to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Marseille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Marseille to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Season data supports Le Havre Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Marseille59341851118
14Le Havre353471413-12
Le Havre sit in position 14, while Marseille sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Correct Score – 1-1 Draw Predicting a 1-1 draw aligns perfectly with the current statistical trends of both clubs assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Le Havre Over 2.5
60%Marseille Over 2.5
4.67H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Le Havre sit at 20% and Marseille sit at 60% with the H2H average at 4.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Le Havre v Marseille prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

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