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Le Havre crestLe Havre
v
Auxerre crestAuxerre

Ligue 1 | Sun 18 Oct, 16:15

Le Havre v Auxerre Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 00:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Le Havre and Auxerre meet in a Ligue 1 clash where both sides have shown tendencies to generate set-piece opportunities through sustained pressure and attacking intent. Le Havre's recent matches have seen moderate corner counts, while Auxerre's more aggressive playstyle and higher over 2.5 goals rate suggest a game with frequent wide attacks and deliveries. The fixture's tactical setup points to a contest with territorial battles and repeated crossing attempts, setting the stage for a corner-rich encounter at this mid-table clash.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Le Havre averages 5.2 corners per game, Auxerre 5.6, combining for over 10 corners on average.
  • Both teams exhibit attacking styles that create frequent wide plays and set-piece chances.
  • Recent form shows Auxerre's matches often surpass 2.5 goals, indicating open play and pressure.
  • Le Havre’s defensive vulnerabilities encourage Auxerre’s wing play, increasing corner opportunities.
  • Model is high at 69% with a positive of 13.4%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance, well above the 55.6% implied by . Both teams average over five corners per match, reflecting their attacking patterns and defensive openness. Auxerre's aggressive offense and Le Havre's defensive concessions combine to create frequent corner situations. The data-driven of 84% supports this pick as a reliable angle for this Ligue 1 fixture.

Average Corners per GameLe Havre 5.2, Auxerre 5.6
Strong positive
Model Probability vs Implied Odds69% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form Corner TrendsConsistent corner counts in recent matches
Positive
Attacking Style & Defensive WeaknessOpen play and wing attacks increase corners
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This corner market is appealing due to both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities that encourage wide play and set-piece situations. Auxerre’s higher offensive output combined with Le Havre’s conceding pattern supports a match with frequent corners. The statistical data aligns well with the tactical outlook, making Over 9.5 Corners a sensible selection for this fixture.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market rationale

“The corner count is a natural reflection of Auxerre’s aggressive wing play and Le Havre’s defensive gaps, making Over 9.5 Corners a compelling market to watch in this Ligue 1 encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Le Havre averages 5.2 corners per game, Auxerre 5.6, combining for over 10 corners on average.

Both teams exhibit attacking styles that create frequent wide plays and set-piece chances.

Recent form shows Auxerre's matches often surpass 2.5 goals, indicating open play and pressure.

Le Havre’s defensive vulnerabilities encourage Auxerre’s wing play, increasing corner opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating moderately open games.
  • Over the last five matches involving these teams, the tempo and attacking intent have led to frequent set-piece situations.
  • This trend suggests a game rhythm conducive to generating corners, especially with Auxerre’s higher over 2.5 goals rate signaling open play and transitions that often result in corners.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Le Havre0.8
Avg goals scored
Auxerre1.2
Le Havre1.4
Avg goals conceded
Auxerre2.2
Le Havre60%
BTTS rate
Auxerre80%
Le Havre40%
Over 2.5 goals
Auxerre80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
While this fixture is not primarily focused on goals, Auxerre’s 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Le Havre’s 40% rate suggest a moderately open game. The attacking intent from both sides increases the likelihood of set-piece situations, which often correlate with higher corner counts. BTTS rates also support sustained pressure on both ends, contributing indirectly to corner opportunities.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 fixtures and predictionsLe Havre v Auxerre predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Auxerre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Le Havre Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+13.4 pts). Auxerre lead the corner sample at 5.6 per match, with Le Havre lower at 5.2. Le Havre’s matches have generally been lower-scoring, as evidenced by their total of eight conceded and four scored across six fixtures, including a narrow.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Le Havre

LLDLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 4L
10 Oct 2026A Lille0-1
19 Sep 2026A Toulouse2-3
12 Sep 2026H Angers0-0
05 Sep 2026H Stade Brestois 291-2
29 Aug 2026A Lyon1-1

Auxerre

LWWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 4L
11 Oct 2026A Rennes1-4
20 Sep 2026H Stade Brestois 292-1
12 Sep 2026H Nice1-0
04 Sep 2026A Lyon1-3
29 Aug 2026H Angers1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Auxerre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Le Havre Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Le Havre to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent form data shows Auxerre’s matches frequently feature high corner counts, supported by their aggressive attacking style and higher over 2.5 goals rate of 80%. Le Havre’s lower scoring and conceding rates indicate a more defensive posture, but their average corner count remains steady. This combination points to a match where Auxerre’s pressure will generate numerous corners, aligning with the Over 9.5 Corners pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Le Havre Over 2.5
80%Auxerre Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating moderately open games. Over the last five matches involving these teams, the tempo and attacking intent have led to frequent set-piece situations. This trend suggests a game rhythm conducive to generating corners, especially with Auxerre’s higher over 2.5 goals rate signaling open play and transitions that often result in corners.

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