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Le Havre crestLe Havre
v
Auxerre crestAuxerre

Ligue 1 | Sun 18 Oct, 16:15

Le Havre v Auxerre Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 00:54 UK time
BT4Y best bet

Over 2

  • At 20/23, Over 2 implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 58%.
  • Auxerre's porous defence conceding 16 goals in six matches and Le Havre's defensive absences suggest a high-scoring game.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Le Havre and 80% for Auxerre, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Auxerre are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2 goals per match, with Le Havre at 0.8.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Le Havre and 80% for Auxerre show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 58% for Over 2 sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Le Havre and 80% for Auxerre, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Auxerre's porous defence conceding 16 goals in six matches and Le Havre's defensive absences suggest a high-scoring game.

Model chance vs price58% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Neutral
The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Le Havre.Visible data support
Positive
Auxerre are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2.Visible data support
Positive
Auxerre's porous defence conceding 16 goals in six matches.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because auxerre's porous defence conceding that scoring level in six matches and Le Havre's defensive absences suggest a high-scoring game. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Le Havre and 80% for Auxerre, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Auxerre's porous defence conceding 16 goals in six matches and Le Havre's defensive absences suggest a high-scoring game.

The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Le Havre and 80% for Auxerre, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Auxerre are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2 goals per match, with Le Havre at 0.8.

BTTS rates of 60% for Le Havre and 80% for Auxerre show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Le Havre0.8
Avg goals scored
Auxerre1.2
Le Havre1.4
Avg goals conceded
Auxerre2.2
Le Havre60%
BTTS rate
Auxerre80%
Le Havre40%
Over 2.5 goals
Auxerre80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Le Havre and 80% for Auxerre, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 fixtures and predictionsLe Havre v Auxerre predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Auxerre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Le Havre Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Le Havre

LLDLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 4L
10 Oct 2026A Lille0-1
19 Sep 2026A Toulouse2-3
12 Sep 2026H Angers0-0
05 Sep 2026H Stade Brestois 291-2
29 Aug 2026A Lyon1-1

Auxerre

LWWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 4L
11 Oct 2026A Rennes1-4
20 Sep 2026H Stade Brestois 292-1
12 Sep 2026H Nice1-0
04 Sep 2026A Lyon1-3
29 Aug 2026H Angers1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Auxerre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Le Havre Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Le Havre to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Le Havre Over 2.5
80%Auxerre Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Le Havre sit at 40% and Auxerre sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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