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Lazio crestLazio
v
Monza crestMonza

Serie A | Sun 11 Oct, 14:00

Lazio v Monza Stats

Data last updated: Tue 03 Nov 2026, 05:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lazio face Monza in Serie A on Sun 11 Oct, 14:00. Fabio Pisacane's side sit fourth with 12 points, two ahead of seventh-placed Juventus, having won four of their opening five league matches. Lazio look stronger on recent form, while Monza remain vulnerable after weaker results.

BT4Y best bet

Monza Asian Handicap +1

  • At 3/4, Monza Asian Handicap +1 implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 72%.
  • Monza’s Asian Handicap +1 is supported by strong Both Teams To Score backing and Gustavo Varela’s 1.0 goals-per-match average.
  • Lazio show a 40% BTTS rate and Monza show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Lazio average 1.6 goals scored and Monza average 1.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 72% for Monza Asian Handicap +1 sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Lazio show a 40% BTTS rate and Monza show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Monza’s Asian Handicap +1 is supported by strong Both Teams To Score backing and Gustavo Varela’s 1.0 goals-per-match average.

Model chance vs price72% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Strong positive
Lazio show a 40% BTTS rate and Monza show a.Visible data support
Positive
Lazio average 1.6 goals scored and Monza average 1.6, so.Visible data support
Positive
Monza’s Asian Handicap +1 is supported by strong Both.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because monza’s Asian Handicap +1 is supported by strong Both Teams To Score backing and Gustavo Varela’s that scoring level-per-match average. Lazio show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Monza show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Lazio come into the match as 8/13 match favourites, but the Monza Asian Handicap +1 offers a precise angle into a match where the margins could be tight.

Main risk

Lazio come into the match as 8/13 match favourites, but the Monza Asian Handicap +1 offers a precise angle into a match where the margins could be tight.

Key Data Signals

Monza Asian Handicap +1 evidence

Monza’s Asian Handicap +1 is supported by strong Both Teams To Score backing and Gustavo Varela’s 1.

Lazio show a 40% BTTS rate and Monza show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Lazio average 1.6 goals scored and Monza average 1.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Monza Asian Handicap +1 notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lazio1.6
Avg goals scored
Monza1.6
Lazio0.6
Avg goals conceded
Monza2.4
Lazio40%
BTTS rate
Monza100%
Lazio40%
Over 2.5 goals
Monza80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Lazio to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Monza Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lazio

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
19 Sep 2026A Venezia2-0
12 Sep 2026H AC Milan2-2
07 Sep 2026A Udinese2-1
30 Aug 2026H Genoa1-0
24 Aug 2026A Bologna1-0

Monza

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
18 Sep 2026H Sassuolo2-1
13 Sep 2026A Lecce2-3
06 Sep 2026A Parma1-1
29 Aug 2026H Udinese2-3
22 Aug 2026A Inter1-4
Best odds for this sectionLazio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Monza Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Monza to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lazio Over 2.5
80%Monza Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lazio sit at 40% and Monza sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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