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Lazio crestLazio
v
Inter crestInter

Serie A | Sat 09 May, 17:00

Lazio v Inter Stats

Data last updated: Thu 16 Jul 2026, 15:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lazio face Inter in Serie A on Sat 09 May, 17:00. Currently enjoying an "avalanche" of form with 22 goals in seven matches, they face a Lazio side that has lost five of seven home matches against elite league opposition.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Lazio Win

  • At 8/11, Lazio Win implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Lazio have struggled for defensive consistency, conceding three times to Inter on Saturday.
  • Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 8 for Lazio.
  • Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Lazio Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Lazio sit 9 in the table, while Inter sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Lazio Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 58% while the model sits nearer 27% (-30.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Inter Draw No Bet shows a +16.5 pts edge at 1.68.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Lazio Win sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 8 for Lazio. Lazio have struggled for defensive consistency, conceding three times to Inter on Saturday.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Negative
Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Lazio have struggled for defensive consistency, conceding three times.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lazio Win is the preferred angle because lazio have struggled for defensive consistency, conceding three times to Inter on Saturday. Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 8 for Lazio. A higher-risk market where you must predict the exact final scoreline after 90 minutes.

Main risk

A higher-risk market where you must predict the exact final scoreline after 90 minutes.

Key Data Signals

Lazio Win evidence

Lazio have struggled for defensive consistency, conceding three times to Inter on Saturday.

Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 8 for Lazio.

Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Lazio Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Lazio sit 9 in the table, while Inter sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Lazio Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Lazio5
    Avg corners for
    Inter4.33
    Lazio8.75
    Avg total corners
    Inter7.67
    Lazio2
    Avg yellow cards
    Inter3
    Lazio10.25
    Avg shots
    Inter12.67
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 57% · edge +13.4 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Serie A hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Lazio1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Inter3.2
    Lazio1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Inter1.4
    Lazio60%
    BTTS rate
    Inter60%
    Lazio40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Inter80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 23% · edge +3.9 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Lazio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Lazio to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Lazio

    WDWLD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    04 May 2026A Cremonese2-1
    27 Apr 2026H Udinese3-3
    18 Apr 2026A Napoli2-0
    13 Apr 2026A Fiorentina0-1
    04 Apr 2026H Parma1-1

    Inter

    WDWWW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 3D 1L
    03 May 2026H Parma2-0
    26 Apr 2026A Torino2-2
    17 Apr 2026H Cagliari3-0
    12 Apr 2026A Como4-3
    05 Apr 2026H AS Roma5-2
    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 23% · edge +3.9 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Lazio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.97
    Check odds @ 1.97
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Lazio wins
    2Draws
    7Inter wins
    09 Nov 2025Inter v Lazio2-0
    18 May 2025Inter v Lazio2-2
    25 Feb 2025Inter v Lazio2-0
    16 Dec 2024Lazio v Inter0-6
    19 May 2024Inter v Lazio1-1
    19 Jan 2024Inter v Lazio3-0
    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 23% · edge +3.9 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Lazio to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Lazio38
    Played
    Inter38
    Lazio1.1
    Avg goals for
    Inter2.3
    Lazio1.1
    Avg goals against
    Inter0.9
    Lazio15
    Clean sheets
    Inter18
    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 23% · edge +3.9 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Lazio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Season data supports Lazio to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Inter8738276554
    9Lazio54381412121
    Lazio sit in position 9, while Inter sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the Lazio Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Lazio Over 2.5
    80%Inter Over 2.5
    3.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lazio sit at 40% and Inter sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Lazio v Inter prediction

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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