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Pianese crestPianese

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 01 Nov, 16:30

Latina v Pianese Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 20:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Latina and Pianese face off in Serie C - Girone B with both teams showing cautious recent form. Latina has secured 9 points from their last matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals while conceding just 0.6, indicating solid defensive organization. Pianese, struggling near the bottom of the table with 9 points, averages fewer goals scored and conceded, reflecting a more conservative approach. The tactical setup suggests a tight contest with limited offensive breakthroughs, as both sides prioritize defensive solidity over attacking risk in this crucial fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Latina concedes only 0.6 goals per game, showing defensive strength
  • Pianese averages 0.8 goals scored and conceded, indicating low-scoring matches
  • Latina has a 0% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, emphasizing tight games
  • Pianese's BTTS rate is 40%, suggesting less frequent both teams scoring
  • No previous head-to-head data, increasing uncertainty but recent form favors low scoring

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Under 2.5 Goals pick is supported by both teams' defensive records and recent form data. Latina's strong defensive numbers and zero Over 2.5 Goals matches this season highlight a disciplined backline. Pianese's modest scoring and conceding rates further reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The model estimates a 66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, which is above the implied market chance, indicating positive value. This match is likely to be a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, making the Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection.

Latina Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Pianese Scoring and Conceding0.8 goals per game each
Positive
Latina Over 2.5 Goals Rate0% this season
Strong positive
Pianese BTTS Rate40%
Neutral
Model Probability vs Market66% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+7.2 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This fixture is poised for a low-scoring encounter due to Latina's disciplined defense and Pianese's conservative offensive output. The recent form data supports a cautious game with limited goal opportunities, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice. The defensive solidity and tactical caution from both sides suggest goals will be at a premium in this Serie C clash.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical and statistical analysis

“Latina's defensive discipline combined with Pianese's modest attack sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring match. The data clearly points to a game where both sides prioritize control over risk, making Under 2.5 Goals a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Latina concedes only 0.6 goals per game, showing defensive strength

Pianese averages 0.8 goals scored and conceded, indicating low-scoring matches

Pianese's BTTS rate is 40%, suggesting less frequent both teams scoring

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Recent Over 2.5 Goals trends show Latina has a 0% rate this season, while Pianese's rate is 40%, indicating a moderate chance of higher scoring from Pianese but overall a low-scoring pattern.
  • The last five matches for both teams suggest a tempo favoring defensive control and limited goal opportunities, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Latina1.2
Avg goals scored
Pianese0.8
Latina0.6
Avg goals conceded
Pianese0.8
Latina60%
BTTS rate
Pianese40%
Latina0%
Over 2.5 goals
Pianese40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 59% · edge +7.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams show restrained attacking output with Latina scoring 1.2 goals per game and Pianese 0.8, while defensive records remain tight. Pianese's 40% BTTS rate and Latina's 60% indicate moderate likelihood of both teams scoring, but the overall low goal averages support a controlled goals environment favoring Under 2.5 Goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Pianese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Latina to WinBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Latina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Pianese to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+7.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Latina and 40% for Pianese, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Latina

DWWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
24 Oct 2026A Spezia1-1
18 Oct 2026H Vis Pesaro1-0
14 Oct 2026H Atalanta II2-0
11 Oct 2026A Sambenedettese1-1
04 Oct 2026H Ostia Mare1-1

Pianese

DDDWL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 6D 3L
25 Oct 2026A Forli0-0
17 Oct 2026H Pineto0-0
10 Oct 2026A Ostia Mare0-0
04 Oct 2026H Ravenna2-1
26 Sep 2026A Livorno2-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 85% vs implied 89% · edge -4.8 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Load more odds for this section
Pianese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Latina to WinBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Latina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Pianese to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Latina's recent form includes 9 points with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while Pianese has earned 6 points with similarly low scoring and conceding rates. These trends indicate both teams are in compact form phases, emphasizing defensive organization and limiting goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Latina Over 2.5
40%Pianese Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent Over 2.5 Goals trends show Latina has a 0% rate this season, while Pianese's rate is 40%, indicating a moderate chance of higher scoring from Pianese but overall a low-scoring pattern. The last five matches for both teams suggest a tempo favoring defensive control and limited goal opportunities, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.

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