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Kocaelispor crestKocaelispor
v
Amed crestAmed

Süper Lig | Mon 24 Aug, 19:30

Kocaelispor v Amed Stats

Data last updated: Sun 23 Aug 2026, 07:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Süper Lig clash features Amed traveling to face Kocaelispor, with Amed currently enjoying a strong start to the season, sitting 4th in the table with 3 points from their opening match. Kocaelispor, positioned 16th, have yet to earn points and are seeking to avoid a poor run. Amed's attacking momentum and defensive solidity contrast with Kocaelispor's early struggles, setting up a contest where Amed's and recent form could prove decisive in an away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Amed to Win

  • Amed won their opening match while Kocaelispor lost theirs, showing early form contrast.
  • Amed averages 13 shots per game with 5 on target, indicating strong offensive pressure.
  • Kocaelispor averages only 2 corners per game versus Amed's 4, suggesting less attacking territory.
  • Amed has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, highlighting their attacking potency.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Amed's chances to win at 70%, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 32.3%, indicating strong value at of 3.1. Amed's superior attacking metrics, including higher shots and shots on target, combined with their perfect record of scoring over 2.5 goals this season, underpin this . Defensive frailties and lack of points for Kocaelispor further support the away win prediction. No data limitations affect this analysis, making the pick a solid value bet with standard staking recommended.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Market Implied Probability32.3%
Strong positive
Amed Offensive Pressure13 shots/game, 5 on target
Strong positive
Kocaelispor Defensive Weakness0 points, 2 goals conceded
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Amed's early season form and attacking control make them the clear choice for victory. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive solidity contrasts sharply with Kocaelispor's struggles, suggesting Amed can secure an away win in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Amed's combination of attacking volume and defensive resilience sets a strong foundation for an away win, especially against a Kocaelispor side yet to find form.”

Key Data Signals

Amed to Win evidence

Amed won their opening match while Kocaelispor lost theirs, showing early form contrast.

Amed averages 13 shots per game with 5 on target, indicating strong offensive pressure.

Kocaelispor averages only 2 corners per game versus Amed's 4, suggesting less attacking territory.

Amed has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, highlighting their attacking potency.

What To Watch In The Data

Amed to Win notes

  • Over the last four meetings, the average goals per match is 2.5, aligning with the current season trend of high-scoring games involving Amed.
  • This suggests a match tempo conducive to multiple goals, supporting the likelihood of an open, attacking game with Over 2.5 Goals.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Kocaelispor2
Avg corners for
Amed4
Kocaelispor10
Avg total corners
Amed8
Kocaelispor2
Avg yellow cards
Amed1
Kocaelispor8
Avg shots
Amed13
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 53% · edge +3.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Amed's higher average of 4 corners per game and 13 shots, including 5 on target, reflect sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Kocaelispor's lower averages and higher card risk players suggest they may resort to fouling to disrupt play, increasing card likelihood but unlikely to stem Amed's offensive threat.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kocaelispor0
Avg goals scored
Amed3
Kocaelispor2
Avg goals conceded
Amed0
Kocaelispor0%
BTTS rate
Amed0%
Kocaelispor0%
Over 2.5 goals
Amed100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 55% · edge +13.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Amed's perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season signals a high likelihood of multiple goals in this match. Both teams' recent matches suggest open play, but Kocaelispor's lack of scoring reduces BTTS chances, favoring an Over 2.5 Goals scenario with Amed scoring multiple times.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAmed to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Amed Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The current of 3.1 for an Amed win offer clear value compared to the model's 70% win probability. This discrepancy highlights market underestimation of Amed's chances, making the bet attractive without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kocaelispor

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
16 Aug 2026A Başakşehir0-2

Amed

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
16 Aug 2026H Erzurumspor FK3-0
Market aligned with main pickAmed to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Amed Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Amed's recent form is strong, with a win and 3 goals scored in their last match, contrasting with Kocaelispor's opening loss and no goals scored. This momentum difference suggests Amed enters this fixture with and attacking rhythm, increasing their likelihood of victory.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Kocaelispor wins
0Draws
3Amed wins
08 Feb 2025Kocaelispor v Amed1-0
02 Sep 2024Amed v Kocaelispor3-0
24 Mar 2021Kocaelispor v Amed1-2
18 Nov 2020Amed v Kocaelispor3-0
Market aligned with main pickAmed to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The four previous encounters between these teams have averaged 2.5 goals per game, indicating a moderately open contest historically. While the sample is limited, it suggests that matches between these sides tend to feature multiple goals, which complements the current attacking form of Amed.
Season team stats

Süper Lig

Kocaelispor1
Played
Amed1
Kocaelispor0
Avg goals for
Amed3
Kocaelispor2
Avg goals against
Amed0
Kocaelispor0
Clean sheets
Amed1
Market aligned with main pickAmed to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Amed Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Amed's season stats reveal a potent attack averaging 3 goals per game and solid defense with zero goals conceded so far. Kocaelispor's stats show defensive vulnerabilities and a lack of scoring, reinforcing Amed's superiority and the probability of an away win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Amed311003
16Kocaelispor01001-2
Amed's 4th place standing with 3 points contrasts with Kocaelispor's 16th place and zero points, reflecting early season form gaps. While standings are early, the pressure on Kocaelispor to avoid a poor start adds urgency, but Amed's higher rank and form give them the edge.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Kocaelispor Over 2.5
100%Amed Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last four meetings, the average goals per match is 2.5, aligning with the current season trend of high-scoring games involving Amed. This suggests a match tempo conducive to multiple goals, supporting the likelihood of an open, attacking game with Over 2.5 Goals.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.