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Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock
v
ST Mirren crestST Mirren

Premiership | Wed 02 Sep, 19:45

Kilmarnock v ST Mirren Stats

Data last updated: Wed 23 Sep 2026, 05:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kilmarnock face ST Mirren in Premiership on Wed 02 Sep, 19:45. Kilmarnock host St Mirren at Rugby Park on Wednesday with two contrasting trends pulling this fixture in opposite directions.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2

  • At 20/23, Over 2 implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Kilmarnock and 33% for ST Mirren, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • ST Mirren are carrying more of the scoring load at 2 goals per match, with Kilmarnock at 1.33.
  • BTTS rates of 67% for Kilmarnock and 33% for ST Mirren show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Over 2 sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Kilmarnock and 33% for ST Mirren, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Kilmarnock and 33%.Visible data support
Positive
ST Mirren are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because selection: Over 2.5 Goals. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Kilmarnock and 33% for ST Mirren, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Kilmarnock and 33% for ST Mirren, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

ST Mirren are carrying more of the scoring load at 2 goals per match, with Kilmarnock at 1.33.

BTTS rates of 67% for Kilmarnock and 33% for ST Mirren show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kilmarnock1.33
Avg goals scored
ST Mirren2
Kilmarnock4.33
Avg goals conceded
ST Mirren1
Kilmarnock67%
BTTS rate
ST Mirren33%
Kilmarnock100%
Over 2.5 goals
ST Mirren33%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 58% · edge +12.1 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Premiership analysisKilmarnock v ST Mirren predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 58% · edge +12.1 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
ST Mirren Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Kilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Kilmarnock3.67
Avg corners for
ST Mirren6.33
Kilmarnock9.67
Avg total corners
ST Mirren11.67
Kilmarnock2
Avg yellow cards
ST Mirren2.67
Kilmarnock11
Avg shots
ST Mirren17
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 60% · edge +4.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kilmarnock

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
29 Aug 2026H Dundee Utd0-4
09 Aug 2026H Celtic1-5
02 Aug 2026A ST Johnstone3-4

ST Mirren

DWW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
30 Aug 2026H Motherwell3-3
08 Aug 2026H ST Johnstone1-0
01 Aug 2026A Falkirk2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 71% · edge +12.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
ST Mirren Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Kilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Kilmarnock wins
3Draws
1ST Mirren wins
09 May 2026ST Mirren v Kilmarnock0-3
11 Feb 2026Kilmarnock v ST Mirren4-3
27 Dec 2025ST Mirren v Kilmarnock0-0
04 Oct 2025Kilmarnock v ST Mirren2-0
19 Sep 2025Kilmarnock v ST Mirren2-2
29 Mar 2025ST Mirren v Kilmarnock5-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 58% · edge +12.1 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Kilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Season team stats

Premiership

Kilmarnock7
Played
ST Mirren7
Kilmarnock0.9
Avg goals for
ST Mirren1.1
Kilmarnock2.1
Avg goals against
ST Mirren1.3
Kilmarnock2
Clean sheets
ST Mirren3
Best odds for this sectionST Mirren Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Kilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Season data supports ST Mirren Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5ST Mirren107313-1
12Kilmarnock57124-9
Kilmarnock sit in position 12, while ST Mirren sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2 assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Kilmarnock Over 2.5
33%ST Mirren Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Kilmarnock sit at 100% and ST Mirren sit at 33% with the H2H average at 3.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Kilmarnock v ST Mirren prediction

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Betting context

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