Kilmarnock

ST Mirren

Premiership | Wed 02 Sep, 19:45

Kilmarnock v ST Mirren Stats

Data last updated: Tue 01 Sep 2026, 07:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This relegation clash at the SMISA Stadium pits two teams separated by a single point, both under immense pressure to avoid the playoff spot. St Mirren arrive on a four-match losing streak but maintain a disciplined defensive shape at home, often involved in low-scoring games. Kilmarnock, despite a recent morale-boosting 3-0 win, remain winless in 14 away Premiership matches and have a porous defense conceding 39 goals on the road. Both sides are likely to prioritize defensive solidity over attacking risk in this tense, survival-focused encounter.

BT4Y match pick

St Mirren vs Kilmarnock: Draw

St Mirren have lost four consecutive matches but remain defensively organised at home.
Kilmarnock are winless in their last 14 Premiership away games, conceding 39 goals in 17 away fixtures.
Both teams have low scoring rates, with St Mirren involved in the most matches under 3 goals this season.
Recent form and defensive caution suggest a tight game with a high likelihood of a draw.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees the draw as the most plausible outcome given the defensive caution and recent form of both teams. St Mirren's home organisation and Kilmarnock's poor away record create a balanced scenario where neither side is likely to risk defeat. The price is slightly short compared to the , so a cautious stake is advised. The limited attacking threat from Kilmarnock away and St Mirren's low-scoring matches underpin the draw prediction. No data limitations affect in this analysis.

Model Chance30.4%

Positive

Implied Market Chance33.3%

Neutral

Recent FormSt Mirren 7 points, Kilmarnock 0 points in last matches

Positive

Defensive RecordsKilmarnock conceded 39 away goals, St Mirren low goals conceded at home

Positive

Price SensitivitySlightly short price, recommend reduced stake

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This match is set for a cautious stalemate as both sides focus on survival. St Mirren's home defensive discipline and Kilmarnock's ongoing away struggles suggest neither will commit fully forward, making a draw the most tactically sound and statistically supported outcome.

Main risk

The concern for St Mirren is not simply the results themselves.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome tactical and form analysis

“The draw reflects the tactical reality of a relegation battle where defensive caution dominates and both teams seek to avoid costly mistakes rather than chase risky wins.”

Key Data Signals

St Mirren vs Kilmarnock: Draw evidence

St Mirren have lost four consecutive matches but remain defensively organised at home.

Kilmarnock are winless in their last 14 Premiership away games, conceding 39 goals in 17 away fixtures.

Both teams have low scoring rates, with St Mirren involved in the most matches under 3 goals this season.

Recent form and defensive caution suggest a tight game with a high likelihood of a draw.

What To Watch In The Data

St Mirren vs Kilmarnock: Draw notes

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.6, but recent trends and current form point to a lower tempo and fewer goals.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is reduced given both teams' defensive focus and recent low-scoring matches, indicating a trend towards tighter scorelines in this fixture.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Kilmarnock3.67

Avg corners for

ST Mirren6.33

Kilmarnock9.67

Avg total corners

ST Mirren11.67

Kilmarnock2

Avg yellow cards

ST Mirren2.67

Kilmarnock11

Avg shots

ST Mirren17

Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 55% · edge +6.8 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 71%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Kilmarnock averages fewer corners and shots than St Mirren, reflecting their cautious away approach. St Mirren's higher shot volume and corners suggest more attacking intent at home, but the overall pressure and fouling rates indicate a tense, physical match with limited clear-cut chances.

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Useful next reads

more Premiership analysis Kilmarnock v ST Mirren prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kilmarnock1.33

Avg goals scored

ST Mirren2

Kilmarnock4.33

Avg goals conceded

ST Mirren1

Kilmarnock67%

BTTS rate

ST Mirren33%

Kilmarnock100%

Over 2.5 goals

ST Mirren33%

Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 88% vs implied 80% · edge +7.9 pts

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 3

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%

Check odds @ 2

Both teams have shown low scoring tendencies, with St Mirren involved in the most under 3 goals matches this season and Kilmarnock struggling to score away. The BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context fits the expectation of a tight, low-scoring game driven by defensive priorities and survival stakes.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionST Mirren Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

2.45

Check odds @ 2.45

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 71%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Kilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

The draw market is priced slightly shorter than the model's 30.4% chance, indicating some market in a stalemate. Given the defensive caution and recent form, the price is reasonable but suggests a cautious approach with reduced stakes rather than strong value.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kilmarnock

LLL

Last 50W 0D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 3L

29 Aug 2026H Dundee Utd0-4

09 Aug 2026H Celtic1-5

02 Aug 2026A ST Johnstone3-4

ST Mirren

DWW

Last 52W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 1D 0L

30 Aug 2026H Motherwell3-3

08 Aug 2026H ST Johnstone1-0

01 Aug 2026A Falkirk2-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 69% · edge +14.6 pts

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

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ST Mirren Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

2.45

Check odds @ 2.45

Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Kilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Recent form data shows St Mirren collecting 7 points recently despite a losing streak, indicating resilience at home. Kilmarnock's 0 points in recent matches underline their away struggles. This contrast supports a cautious game where St Mirren aim to halt their slide and Kilmarnock seek to avoid defeat, reinforcing the draw outcome.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Kilmarnock wins

3Draws

1ST Mirren wins

09 May 2026ST Mirren v Kilmarnock0-3

11 Feb 2026Kilmarnock v ST Mirren4-3

27 Dec 2025ST Mirren v Kilmarnock0-0

04 Oct 2025Kilmarnock v ST Mirren2-0

19 Sep 2025Kilmarnock v ST Mirren2-2

29 Mar 2025ST Mirren v Kilmarnock5-1

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.3 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

2.45

Check odds @ 2.45

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Kilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows a moderate average of 3.6 goals, but recent encounters have been tighter and more cautious. This history provides some background but is less influential than current form and tactical setups, which favor a low-scoring draw in this high-pressure relegation battle.

Season team stats

Premiership

Kilmarnock3

Played

ST Mirren3

Kilmarnock1.3

Avg goals for

ST Mirren2

Kilmarnock4.3

Avg goals against

ST Mirren1

Kilmarnock0

Clean sheets

ST Mirren2

Best odds for this sectionST Mirren Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

Load more odds for this section

ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

2.45

Check odds @ 2.45

Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Kilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Season-long stats reveal St Mirren's strong defensive organisation at home with many low-scoring games, while Kilmarnock's away record is marked by defensive frailty and low goal output. These profiles align with a match likely to be decided by narrow margins and defensive discipline.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	ST Mirren	7	3	2	1	0	3
12	Kilmarnock	0	3	0	0	3	-9

With only one point separating the teams near the relegation playoff zone, the standings intensify the pressure to avoid defeat. This context suggests both sides will prioritize not losing over aggressive tactics, making a draw a logical and strategically sound result.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Kilmarnock Over 2.5

33%ST Mirren Over 2.5

3.6H2H avg goals

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.6, but recent trends and current form point to a lower tempo and fewer goals. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is reduced given both teams' defensive focus and recent low-scoring matches, indicating a trend towards tighter scorelines in this fixture.

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Betting context

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Football Stats Hub

Kilmarnock v ST Mirren Stats

Match Report

St Mirren vs Kilmarnock: Draw

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Kilmarnock

ST Mirren

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Kilmarnock v ST Mirren Stats

Match Report

St Mirren vs Kilmarnock: Draw

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

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What To Watch In The Data

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