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Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock
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Raith Rovers crestRaith Rovers

League Cup | Tue 14 Jul, 19:45

Kilmarnock v Raith Rovers Stats

Data last updated: Tue 14 Jul 2026, 10:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kilmarnock face Raith Rovers in League Cup on Tue 14 Jul, 19:45. Direct Force Meets Counter-Attacking Speed in Group H. Given Raith's habit of conceding on the road (averaging 1.33 conceded), a narrow 2-1 victory for the in-form hosts is highly plausible. Raith, scoring in their last two matches, possess a strong transition threat.

BT4Y match pick

Kilmarnock 2-1 Correct Score Predicting a precise 2-1 outcome aligns perfectly with both team's tactical statistics

  • At 11/5, Kilmarnock 2-1 Correct Score Predicting a precise 2-1 outcome aligns perfectly with both team's tactical statistics implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Kilmarnock boast strong home momentum, averaging 2.50 goals per game, but their direct attacking style leaves spaces.
  • Raith Rovers have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Kilmarnock.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Kilmarnock 2-1 Correct Score Predicting a precise 2-1 outcome aligns perfectly with both team's tactical statistics sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Raith Rovers have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Kilmarnock. Kilmarnock boast strong home momentum, averaging 2.50 goals per game, but their direct attacking style leaves spaces.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Negative
Raith Rovers have the stronger recent points return, taking 3.Visible data support
Positive
Kilmarnock boast strong home momentum, averaging 2.50 goals per.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Kilmarnock Win is the preferred angle because kilmarnock boast strong home momentum, averaging that scoring level per game, but their direct attacking style leaves spaces. Raith Rovers have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Kilmarnock. However, Raith's high-intensity pressing and transitional danger should allow them to get on the scoresheet.

Main risk

However, Raith's high-intensity pressing and transitional danger should allow them to get on the scoresheet.

Key Data Signals

Kilmarnock 2-1 Correct Score Predicting a precise 2-1 outcome aligns perfectly with both team's tactical statistics evidence

Kilmarnock boast strong home momentum, averaging 2.50 goals per game, but their direct attacking style leaves spaces.

Raith Rovers have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Kilmarnock.

What To Watch In The Data

Kilmarnock 2-1 Correct Score Predicting a precise 2-1 outcome aligns perfectly with both team's tactical statistics notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Kilmarnock Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Kilmarnock to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Kilmarnock-
    Avg goals scored
    Raith Rovers3
    Kilmarnock-
    Avg goals conceded
    Raith Rovers1
    Kilmarnock-
    BTTS rate
    Raith Rovers100%
    Kilmarnock-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Raith Rovers100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Kilmarnock

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Kilmarnock yet.

    Raith Rovers

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    11 Jul 2026H Elgin City3-1
    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
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    Kilmarnock Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Kilmarnock wins
    2Draws
    3Raith Rovers wins
    26 Jul 2023Kilmarnock v Raith Rovers2-2
    29 Apr 2022Raith Rovers v Kilmarnock1-1
    02 Mar 2022Kilmarnock v Raith Rovers1-2
    19 Feb 2022Kilmarnock v Raith Rovers3-0
    11 Dec 2021Raith Rovers v Kilmarnock1-0
    02 Oct 2021Kilmarnock v Raith Rovers1-3
    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Kilmarnock to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    League Cup

    Kilmarnock4
    Played
    Raith Rovers4
    Kilmarnock0.8
    Avg goals for
    Raith Rovers1.3
    Kilmarnock0.3
    Avg goals against
    Raith Rovers1
    Kilmarnock3
    Clean sheets
    Raith Rovers1
    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Kilmarnock Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Season data supports Kilmarnock to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Kilmarnock Over 2.5
    100%Raith Rovers Over 2.5
    2.83H2H avg goals
    Kilmarnock boast strong home momentum, averaging 2.50 goals per game, but their direct attacking style leaves spaces.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.