Football Stats Hub

Kauno Žalgiris crestKauno Žalgiris
v
Brann crestBrann

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 22 Oct, 17:45

Kauno Žalgiris v Brann Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 16:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kauno Žalgiris face Brann in the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage, with Brann holding a points advantage and stronger recent form. Kauno Žalgiris have struggled to score and earn points, while Brann have shown offensive threat and a tendency for higher-scoring games. The fixture sets up as a contest where Brann's attacking intent and Kauno Žalgiris' defensive vulnerabilities could lead to multiple goals, making an over 2.5 goals scenario plausible given the stakes and contrasting styles.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Kauno Žalgiris have conceded 4 goals in recent matches, with 100% of their games going over 2.5 goals.
  • Brann have scored 2 goals and kept a relatively tight defense, with 60% of their matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • Brann average 7.8 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure.
  • Kauno Žalgiris average only 4 shots per game with low shots on target, suggesting defensive frailty rather than attacking control.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 78% chance for over 2.5 goals, supported by Kauno Žalgiris' 100% over 2.5 rate and Brann's 60%. Brann's attacking players, especially N. Holm with high shot and shot-on-target rates, add to the scoring potential. The price at 1.73 offers positive value with a 20% edge. The attacking styles and defensive records suggest a match prone to multiple goals, making over 2.5 goals a compelling choice.

Kauno Žalgiris Over 2.5 Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Brann Over 2.5 Rate60% recent matches
Positive
N. Holm Shot Volume14.21 shots/90 minutes
Strong positive
Price vs Model Chance74.9% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively encounter with Brann's attacking players pushing for goals against a Kauno Žalgiris defense that has conceded frequently. The data and form suggest multiple goals are likely, making over 2.5 goals a sensible selection for this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking potential and defensive vulnerabilities

“Brann's offensive firepower combined with Kauno Žalgiris' defensive struggles creates a fertile ground for goals. The attacking metrics and recent trends strongly indicate an open game with scoring opportunities at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Kauno Žalgiris have conceded 4 goals in recent matches, with 100% of their games going over 2.5 goals.

Brann have scored 2 goals and kept a relatively tight defense, with 60% of their matches exceeding 2.5 goals.

Brann average 7.8 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure.

Kauno Žalgiris average only 4 shots per game with low shots on target, suggesting defensive frailty rather than attacking control.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Recent matches for Kauno Žalgiris have all exceeded 2.5 goals, while Brann's last five matches have a 60% over 2.5 rate.
  • This trend suggests a match with a high tempo and goal-scoring chances, driven by attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kauno Žalgiris0
Avg goals scored
Brann2
Kauno Žalgiris4
Avg goals conceded
Brann1.4
Kauno Žalgiris0%
BTTS rate
Brann80%
Kauno Žalgiris100%
Over 2.5 goals
Brann60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Kauno Žalgiris have seen all recent matches exceed 2.5 goals, though they have a 0% BTTS rate, indicating they concede but rarely score. Brann have a higher BTTS rate at 80%, showing they often both score and concede, suggesting a match with multiple goals but possibly uneven scoring distribution.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Kauno Žalgiris Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Brann to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Brann Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Kauno Žalgiris to WinBetMGM guide price · model 21%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
The 74.9% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Kauno Žalgiris and 60% for Brann, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kauno Žalgiris

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
15 Oct 2026A Brighton0-4

Brann

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
15 Oct 2026H Lincoln Red Imps FC2-1
27 Aug 2026H PAOK3-2
20 Aug 2026A PAOK1-1
11 Aug 2026A Apollon Limassol4-2
05 Aug 2026H Apollon Limassol0-1
Best odds for this sectionKauno Žalgiris Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 35% · edge +9.9 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Brann to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Brann Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Kauno Žalgiris to WinBetMGM guide price · model 21%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Kauno Žalgiris have failed to earn points recently and have conceded multiple goals, with all matches going over 2.5 goals. Brann have accumulated 10 points with a 60% over 2.5 rate, reflecting a trend toward higher-scoring games for both sides in recent form.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Kauno Žalgiris Over 2.5
60%Brann Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent matches for Kauno Žalgiris have all exceeded 2.5 goals, while Brann's last five matches have a 60% over 2.5 rate. This trend suggests a match with a high tempo and goal-scoring chances, driven by attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

Loading deeper match data…