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Kasımpaşa crestKasımpaşa
v
Samsunspor crestSamsunspor

Süper Lig | Sun 18 Oct, 11:30

Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kasımpaşa hosts Samsunspor in a Süper Lig clash where the home side holds a clear advantage in recent form and league standing. Kasımpaşa has accumulated 10 points and sits comfortably mid-table, while Samsunspor languishes near the relegation zone with just 4 points. Kasımpaşa's attack shows more potency, averaging 1.2 goals per game compared to Samsunspor's 0.2, and their defense is comparatively sturdier. This match presents a tactical opportunity for Kasımpaşa to capitalize on their home form and offensive edge against a struggling opponent.

BT4Y best bet

Kasımpaşa to Win

  • Kasımpaşa leads the league standings with 10 points versus Samsunspor's 4.
  • Kasımpaşa averages 1.2 goals per match; Samsunspor only 0.2.
  • Kasımpaşa's recent form includes 6 points gained; Samsunspor has none.
  • Kasımpaşa's BTTS rate is 80%, indicating attacking strength.
  • Model estimates a 74% chance for Kasımpaşa to win, showing strong .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Kasımpaşa to win with a 74% probability, reflecting their superior recent form, stronger attack, and better defensive record. Kasımpaşa's ability to create quality chances, supported by 13 average shots per game and 3.6 shots on target, contrasts with Samsunspor's less effective offense. The home side's higher points tally and league position further reinforce this edge. No price warning is needed as the offer positive value relative to the model's . This pick is supported by comprehensive data and tactical context.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsKasımpaşa 6, Samsunspor 0
Strong positive
Goals Per GameKasımpaşa 1.2, Samsunspor 0.2
Strong positive
Shots on Target per GameKasımpaşa 3.6, Samsunspor 3.2
Positive
League StandingKasımpaşa 9th, Samsunspor 17th
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Kasımpaşa's superior league position and recent form make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their more effective attack and home advantage provide a tactical and statistical basis for expecting a victory over Samsunspor, who have struggled to score and accumulate points this season.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Kasımpaşa's consistent attacking threat and solid home performances set a strong foundation for victory, especially against a Samsunspor side that has yet to find offensive rhythm this season.”

Key Data Signals

Kasımpaşa to Win evidence

Kasımpaşa leads the league standings with 10 points versus Samsunspor's 4.

Kasımpaşa averages 1.2 goals per match; Samsunspor only 0.2.

Kasımpaşa's recent form includes 6 points gained; Samsunspor has none.

Kasımpaşa's BTTS rate is 80%, indicating attacking strength.

What To Watch In The Data

Kasımpaşa to Win notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.57, indicating a moderately open game.
  • Kasımpaşa's 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests matches involving them often have multiple goals, driven by their attacking approach and Samsunspor's defensive lapses, pointing to a potentially lively encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kasımpaşa1.2
Avg goals scored
Samsunspor0.2
Kasımpaşa1.4
Avg goals conceded
Samsunspor2.4
Kasımpaşa80%
BTTS rate
Samsunspor20%
Kasımpaşa60%
Over 2.5 goals
Samsunspor40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Kasımpaşa's matches have a high BTTS rate of 80%, indicating frequent goal exchanges, while Samsunspor's lower scoring rate suggests they struggle offensively. The average goals per game and BTTS trends suggest a match with scoring chances, favoring Kasımpaşa's attack.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kasımpaşa

LDWDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 1L
09 Oct 2026A Galatasaray1-3
18 Sep 2026H Konyaspor0-0
13 Sep 2026A Gençlerbirliği S.K.2-1
06 Sep 2026H Amed2-2
30 Aug 2026A Başakşehir1-1

Samsunspor

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Trabzonspor0-3
20 Sep 2026A Erzurumspor FK0-1
12 Sep 2026H Çorum FK1-5
06 Sep 2026A Kocaelispor0-1
30 Aug 2026H Fenerbahçe0-2
Market aligned with main pickKasımpaşa to WinBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Kasımpaşa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Kasımpaşa has collected 6 points recently, demonstrating improved performance and goal scoring, while Samsunspor has yet to gain points in recent matches. Kasımpaşa's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with Samsunspor's struggles, reinforcing the home side's winning prospects.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickKasımpaşa to WinBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Kasımpaşa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 56.7% for Kasımpaşa to Win sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Kasımpaşa have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Samsunspor.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Kasımpaşa Over 2.5
40%Samsunspor Over 2.5
2.57H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.57, indicating a moderately open game. Kasımpaşa's 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests matches involving them often have multiple goals, driven by their attacking approach and Samsunspor's defensive lapses, pointing to a potentially lively encounter.

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