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Juventude crestJuventude
v
Botafogo SP crestBotafogo SP

Serie B | Sat 14 Nov, 19:30

Juventude v Botafogo SP Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Juventude, currently second in the standings with strong home form, against Botafogo SP, sitting twelfth but showing resilience on the road. Juventude boasts a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per game recently, while Botafogo SP impresses with a stingy defense conceding just 0.2 goals per match. Botafogo SP's tactical discipline and defensive solidity contrast with Juventude's attacking emphasis, setting up a contest where Botafogo SP's counter-attacking and defensive organization could be decisive despite the ranking gap.

BT4Y best bet

Botafogo SP to Win

  • Botafogo SP has a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.2 goals per game recently.
  • Juventude scores frequently but also concedes more, indicating open games.
  • Botafogo SP's recent form yields 13 points compared to Juventude's 9 in their last five matches.
  • Juventude averages fewer corners but more shots and shots on target than Botafogo SP.
  • Head-to-head matches average just over 2 goals, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Botafogo SP to win with a 59.3% chance, highlighting their defensive strength and recent form superiority despite lower league position. Botafogo SP's ability to limit opponents to 0.2 goals per game and accumulate 13 points in recent matches contrasts with Juventude's more open style and higher goals conceded. The offer significant value given the implied chance is only 9.1%, making Botafogo SP a compelling underdog pick with solid tactical and statistical backing. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Defensive SolidityConcedes only 0.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent Form13 points in last 5 matches vs 9 for Juventude
Positive
League PositionBotafogo SP 12th vs Juventude 2nd
Negative
Goal ScoringJuventude scores more but concedes more
Neutral
Value Edge24.1% model chance vs 9.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Botafogo SP's recent defensive resilience and superior form momentum make them a strong candidate for victory despite their lower league position. Their ability to frustrate opponents and capitalize on counter-attacks, combined with Juventude's tendency to concede, supports backing Botafogo SP to win in this tactical matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form-based analysis

“Botafogo SP's disciplined defensive setup and recent points haul suggest they can exploit Juventude's attacking openness, making them a smart underdog pick with solid statistical backing.”

Key Data Signals

Botafogo SP to Win evidence

Botafogo SP has a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.2 goals per game recently.

Juventude scores frequently but also concedes more, indicating open games.

Botafogo SP's recent form yields 13 points compared to Juventude's 9 in their last five matches.

Juventude averages fewer corners but more shots and shots on target than Botafogo SP.

What To Watch In The Data

Botafogo SP to Win notes

  • The last seven head-to-head matches average 2.14 goals, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Juventude's recent matches show a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, but Botafogo SP's defensive approach and lower over 2.5 rate (20%) suggest this game could be tighter.
  • The trend points to a tactical contest with potential for fewer goals than Juventude's usual high-scoring games.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Juventude2.4
Avg goals scored
Botafogo SP1.8
Juventude1.4
Avg goals conceded
Botafogo SP0.2
Juventude80%
BTTS rate
Botafogo SP20%
Juventude100%
Over 2.5 goals
Botafogo SP20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Juventude's recent matches have featured high scoring with an over 2.5 goals rate of 100% and BTTS at 80%, indicating open games. In contrast, Botafogo SP's matches show a more defensive pattern with only 20% over 2.5 goals and BTTS. This suggests a tactical battle where Botafogo SP aims to contain Juventude's attack and limit goals, favoring a lower-scoring outcome despite Juventude's offensive threat.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBotafogo SP to WinBet365 guide price · Model 24% vs implied 9% · edge +15 pts
11
Check odds @ 11
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 24.1% for Botafogo SP to Win sits against roughly 9.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Botafogo SP have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 9 for Juventude.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Juventude

WDWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
07 Nov 2026A Cuiaba2-1
31 Oct 2026A Vila Nova2-2
26 Oct 2026H Nautico Recife4-0
17 Oct 2026A Ceara2-2
11 Oct 2026H São Bernardo2-2

Botafogo SP

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
05 Nov 2026H Londrina4-0
31 Oct 2026H Sport Recife1-1
24 Oct 2026A Avai2-0
18 Oct 2026A CRB1-0
13 Oct 2026H Ceara1-0
Market aligned with main pickBotafogo SP to WinBet365 guide price · Model 24% vs implied 9% · edge +15 pts
11
Check odds @ 11
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Botafogo SP's recent form is superior, earning 13 points in the last five matches compared to Juventude's 9. This momentum, combined with their defensive solidity conceding only 0.2 goals per game, underpins in Botafogo SP's ability to secure a win despite Juventude's higher league standing and attacking prowess.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Juventude Over 2.5
20%Botafogo SP Over 2.5
2.14H2H avg goals
The last seven head-to-head matches average 2.14 goals, indicating moderate scoring. Juventude's recent matches show a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, but Botafogo SP's defensive approach and lower over 2.5 rate (20%) suggest this game could be tighter. The trend points to a tactical contest with potential for fewer goals than Juventude's usual high-scoring games.

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