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Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Tue 05 May, 23:00

Juventud v Atletico-MG Stats

Data last updated: Sat 27 Jun 2026, 03:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Juventud face Atletico-MG in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Tue 05 May, 23:00. Juventud come in with 4 recent points and 2 goals per match, while Atletico-MG have 3 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Juventud to Win

  • At 3.6, Juventud Win implies roughly 28%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 56%.
  • Juventud have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Atletico-MG.
  • Juventud have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Juventud Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 56% for Juventud Win sits against roughly 28% implied by the current price. Juventud have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Atletico-MG.

Model chance vs price56% model chance against roughly 28% implied
Strong positive
Juventud have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Juventud have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Juventud Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Juventud have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Atletico-MG. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Juventud Win evidence

Juventud have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Atletico-MG.

Juventud have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Juventud Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Juventud Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Juventud2
    Avg goals scored
    Atletico-MG1
    Juventud1
    Avg goals conceded
    Atletico-MG1.33
    Juventud67%
    BTTS rate
    Atletico-MG67%
    Juventud67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Atletico-MG67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 55% · edge +21.4 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 85%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickJuventud to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 28% · edge +28.6 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Juventud Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Juventud to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Juventud2.67
    Avg corners for
    Atletico-MG1.67
    Juventud7
    Avg total corners
    Atletico-MG5.33
    Juventud2
    Avg yellow cards
    Atletico-MG2.33
    Juventud11
    Avg shots
    Atletico-MG9
    Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 5.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Juventud

    WLD
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    29 Apr 2026H Puerto Cabello4-0
    16 Apr 2026A Atletico-MG1-2
    09 Apr 2026H Cienciano1-1

    Atletico-MG

    LWL
    Last 51W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 2L
    30 Apr 2026A Cienciano0-1
    16 Apr 2026H Juventud2-1
    09 Apr 2026A Puerto Cabello1-2
    Market aligned with main pickJuventud to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 28% · edge +28.6 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Juventud Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Juventud wins
    0Draws
    1Atletico-MG wins
    16 Apr 2026Atletico-MG v Juventud2-1
    Market aligned with main pickJuventud to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 28% · edge +28.6 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Juventud to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Sudamericana

    Juventud6
    Played
    Atletico-MG6
    Juventud1.7
    Avg goals for
    Atletico-MG1.3
    Juventud1.2
    Avg goals against
    Atletico-MG1
    Juventud1
    Clean sheets
    Atletico-MG2
    Market aligned with main pickJuventud to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 28% · edge +28.6 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Juventud Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Season data supports Juventud to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Atletico-MG1063122
    3Juventud761413
    CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    67%Juventud Over 2.5
    67%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Juventud sit at 67% and Atletico-MG sit at 67% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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