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JJK crestJJK
v
PKKU crestPKKU

Ykkönen | Sun 18 Oct, 13:00

JJK v PKKU Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ykkönen clash features JJK hosting PKKU in a fixture where both sides are fighting for a stronger league finish. PKKU currently sits just above JJK in the standings, holding a slight points advantage and showing more consistent recent form with two wins in their last three matches compared to JJK's single victory. PKKU's tactical approach emphasizes defensive solidity and efficient counter-attacks, which could exploit JJK's defensive vulnerabilities. With both teams eager to climb the table, this encounter promises intensity and tactical discipline, setting the stage for a competitive contest at an undecided venue.

BT4Y best bet

PKKU to Win

  • PKKU holds a 57.6% to win, showing strong value at 2.62 .
  • JJK concedes an average of 3.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • PKKU's recent form includes 6 points from the last three matches, outperforming JJK's 3 points.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 3.57 goals, suggesting open play and scoring opportunities.
  • JJK has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, supporting a high-tempo game environment.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors PKKU to win based on a combination of recent form superiority and defensive stability compared to JJK's leaky defense. PKKU's 57.6% win probability reflects their ability to capitalize on JJK's defensive lapses while maintaining a balanced attack. The at 2.62 offer positive value given the implied chance is only 38.2%. This pick is supported by PKKU's consistent point accumulation and JJK's vulnerability at the back, making PKKU a strong contender despite the away status. No price warnings apply, allowing for a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability57.6%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance53.2% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge53.2% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsPKKU 6 vs JJK 3
Positive
Defensive RecordJJK concedes 3.6 goals/game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

PKKU's recent form and defensive resilience make them the favored side to secure victory against a defensively vulnerable JJK. The away team’s ability to convert chances and maintain discipline under pressure, combined with JJK’s struggles at the back, suggests PKKU can capitalize on key moments to take all three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · PKKU to Win

“PKKU’s tactical discipline and recent momentum position them well to exploit JJK’s defensive weaknesses, making them a compelling pick for the win in this closely matched Ykkönen fixture.”

Key Data Signals

PKKU to Win evidence

PKKU holds a 57.6% to win, showing strong value at 2.62 .

JJK concedes an average of 3.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

PKKU's recent form includes 6 points from the last three matches, outperforming JJK's 3 points.

Head-to-head meetings average 3.57 goals, suggesting open play and scoring opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

PKKU to Win notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals per game stand at 3.57, indicating a trend towards open, attacking encounters.
  • Both teams’ recent Over 2.5 Goals rates—100% for JJK and 80% for PKKU—suggest a fast tempo and frequent scoring chances, making goal markets particularly relevant for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

JJK1.8
Avg goals scored
PKKU1.4
JJK3.6
Avg goals conceded
PKKU2.2
JJK80%
BTTS rate
PKKU40%
JJK100%
Over 2.5 goals
PKKU80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 82% · edge -4 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Recent matches between these teams and their current form suggest a high likelihood of goals, with an average of 3.57 goals in their last seven meetings. JJK’s 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate and 80% BTTS rate indicate open games with scoring from both sides, while PKKU’s more conservative 40% BTTS rate suggests they may focus on defense but still contribute to the goal tally.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPKKU to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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PKKU Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
The 53.2% for PKKU to Win sits against roughly 38.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). PKKU have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for JJK.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

JJK

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
10 Oct 2026A Rops1-6
25 Sep 2026A Tampere United0-4
19 Sep 2026H OLS1-3
12 Sep 2026A SalPa3-4
29 Aug 2026H KPV-j4-1

PKKU

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
10 Oct 2026H SalPa0-4
26 Sep 2026A OLS0-3
19 Sep 2026H Rops3-1
12 Sep 2026A Tampere United2-3
29 Aug 2026A TPV2-0
Market aligned with main pickPKKU to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
PKKU Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
PKKU’s recent form outshines JJK’s, with six points gained in the last three matches compared to JJK’s three. This momentum reflects PKKU’s ability to secure results and maintain defensive organization, while JJK’s form is hampered by conceding multiple goals, undermining their chances of consistent positive outcomes.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%JJK Over 2.5
80%PKKU Over 2.5
3.57H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals per game stand at 3.57, indicating a trend towards open, attacking encounters. Both teams’ recent Over 2.5 Goals rates—100% for JJK and 80% for PKKU—suggest a fast tempo and frequent scoring chances, making goal markets particularly relevant for this fixture.

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