Japan
UruguayFriendlies | Thu 24 Sep, 11:05
Japan v Uruguay Stats
Data last updated: Wed 23 Sep 2026, 08:05 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Japan hosts Uruguay in an international friendly that offers a tactical test for both sides. Japan arrives in strong recent form, unbeaten with three wins and a solid defensive record, while Uruguay has struggled to find consistency, managing only two points from their last fixtures. Japan's attacking players have shown sharpness and creativity, and their defensive discipline has limited opponents' chances. Uruguay will look to leverage their midfield strength but face a tough challenge breaking down a well-organized Japan side. The match promises a controlled tempo with Japan favored to leverage home advantage and recent momentum.
Japan to Win
- Japan is unbeaten in recent matches, securing 9 points with a strong defensive record conceding no goals.
- Uruguay has managed only 2 points recently, with a less effective attack averaging 0.5 goals per game.
- Japan averages 13.33 shots per game with 5.33 on target, indicating offensive pressure.
- Uruguay averages fewer shots (10) and shots on target (1), suggesting limited attacking threat.
- Japan maintains discipline with fewer cards (1.33 yellows per game) compared to Uruguay's 2.5, indicating better control.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The model favors Japan to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking output. Japan's offensive metrics, including higher shots and shots on target, combined with a solid defensive record, create a strong football read. Uruguay's struggles to score and higher disciplinary issues further tilt the balance. The price offers positive value given the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's estimate. This pick is supported by comprehensive player data and team performance, making Japan a confident selection for victory.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
Japan's recent unbeaten run and superior attacking statistics make them the logical choice for victory in this friendly. Their defensive discipline and higher shot volume suggest they can control the game against a Uruguay side that has struggled offensively. Japan's home advantage and momentum provide a solid foundation for this pick.
Uruguay carry the stronger scoring threat, but Japan must contribute for BTTS to land.
Quote from Expert
BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome
“Japan's blend of disciplined defense and effective attacking play positions them well to capitalize on Uruguay's recent inconsistencies in this friendly encounter.”
Key Data Signals
Japan to Win evidence
Japan is unbeaten in recent matches, securing 9 points with a strong defensive record conceding no goals.
Uruguay has managed only 2 points recently, with a less effective attack averaging 0.5 goals per game.
Japan averages 13.33 shots per game with 5.33 on target, indicating offensive pressure.
Uruguay averages fewer shots (10) and shots on target (1), suggesting limited attacking threat.
What To Watch In The Data
Japan to Win notes
- In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 4.33, indicating potential for goals.
- However, recent form and defensive discipline suggest this match may see fewer goals, with Japan likely to control tempo and limit Uruguay's scoring chances, making Over 2.5 goals a watch-only trend rather than a strong bet.
Corners, cards and shots
Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.
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Useful next reads
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Player stats
Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.
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Market odds
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Japan
Uruguay
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Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
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Season team stats
Friendlies
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Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Next step
Betting context
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