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Japan crestJapan
v
Uruguay crestUruguay

Friendlies | Thu 24 Sep, 11:05

Japan v Uruguay Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 05:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Japan face Uruguay in Friendlies on Thu 24 Sep, 11:05. Japan's unbeaten home run and scoring consistency face Uruguay's tight defense, making a narrow margin or draw likely. Uruguay arrive without a victory in the same span and with a new head coach, Diego Forlan, taking charge for the first time.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Uruguay Asian Handicap +0

  • At 3.5, Uruguay Asian Handicap +0 implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 23%.
  • Japan vs Uruguay: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching for a Spark.
  • Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Uruguay.
  • Japan have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Uruguay Asian Handicap +0 angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Uruguay Asian Handicap +0 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 29% while the model sits nearer 23% (-5.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 9.5 Corners shows a +11.5 pts edge at 2.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 23% for Uruguay Asian Handicap +0 sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Uruguay. Japan vs Uruguay: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching for a Spark.

Model chance vs price23% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Negative
Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Japan have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Japan vs Uruguay: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because japan vs Uruguay: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching for a Spark. Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Uruguay. Uruguay carry the stronger scoring threat, but Japan must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Uruguay carry the stronger scoring threat, but Japan must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Uruguay Asian Handicap +0 evidence

Japan vs Uruguay: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching for a Spark.

Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Uruguay.

Japan have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Uruguay Asian Handicap +0 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Japan1
    Avg goals scored
    Uruguay0.5
    Japan0
    Avg goals conceded
    Uruguay0.5
    Japan0%
    BTTS rate
    Uruguay50%
    Japan0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Uruguay0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 59% · edge +7.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 42%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 0% for Japan and 0% for Uruguay, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Friendlies fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 29% · edge -5.7 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Japan to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Uruguay Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 42%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Uruguay to WinBetfred guide price · model 20%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Draw is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Japan

    WWW
    Last 53W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 0D 0L
    31 May 2026H Iceland1-0
    31 Mar 2026A England1-0
    28 Mar 2026A Scotland1-0

    Uruguay

    DD
    Last 50W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 2D 0L
    31 Mar 2026A Algeria0-0
    27 Mar 2026A England1-1
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 29% · edge -5.7 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 80%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Japan to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Uruguay Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Uruguay to WinBetfred guide price · model 20%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Japan Over 2.5
    0%Uruguay Over 2.5
    4.33H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Japan sit at 0% and Uruguay sit at 0% with the H2H average at 4.33 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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