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Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia
v
Anderlecht crestAnderlecht

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

Jagiellonia v Anderlecht Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 14:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Jagiellonia hosts Anderlecht in a UEFA Europa League clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Jagiellonia, ranked 17th in their group, have scored at a rate of 2.2 goals per game while conceding once on average, reflecting a tendency for open play. Anderlecht, despite sitting lower in the standings, maintain a similar offensive output with 2 goals per game and a comparable defensive record. Both sides have a high frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, setting the stage for an open, goal-rich encounter under European night conditions.

BT4Y match pick

Anderlecht Asian Handicap -0.25

  • Jagiellonia and Anderlecht both average around 2 goals per game, indicating strong attacking potential.
  • Both teams have an 80% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season, supporting a high-scoring game.
  • Jagiellonia averages 8.5 shots per game with 5.25 on target, while Anderlecht averages 7.8 shots with 6.4 on target, showing offensive pressure.
  • No previous head-to-head data exists, but recent form and attacking stats suggest an open contest.
  • Player data highlights multiple goal threats and shot volumes from both sides, reinforcing scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76.5% chance for over 2.5 goals, well above the implied market chance of 57.8%, indicating strong value. Both teams have consistently produced high-scoring matches, with Jagiellonia and Anderlecht each having an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season. Offensive metrics such as shots and shots on target per game further support the likelihood of multiple goals. The absence of head-to-head history places more emphasis on current form and attacking profiles, which strongly favor a goal-rich game. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Probability49.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (-3 pts)
Strong positive
Season Over 2.5 Rate80% for both teams
Strong positive
Shots and Shots on TargetHigh average shots and SOT for both teams
Positive
Implied Market Chance49.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (-3 pts)
Strong positive
Head-to-Head DataNo previous meetings
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Jagiellonia and Anderlecht have shown strong offensive capabilities this season. The high volume of shots and goal-scoring rates from both teams suggest multiple goals are likely. This match offers an exciting opportunity for over 2.5 goals given the teams’ tendencies to concede and score freely in European competition.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Anderlecht's low European scoring rate may prevent the two goals needed for this exact score.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking profiles

“Both sides possess attacking players who consistently generate shots and scoring chances, making a high-scoring match probable. The statistical profile strongly supports betting on over 2.5 goals in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Anderlecht Asian Handicap -0.25 evidence

Jagiellonia and Anderlecht both average around 2 goals per game, indicating strong attacking potential.

Both teams have an 80% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season, supporting a high-scoring game.

Jagiellonia averages 8.5 shots per game with 5.25 on target, while Anderlecht averages 7.8 shots with 6.4 on target, showing offensive pressure.

No previous head-to-head data exists, but recent form and attacking stats suggest an open contest.

What To Watch In The Data

Anderlecht Asian Handicap -0.25 notes

  • In recent matches and available data samples, both teams have consistently participated in games with over 2.5 goals, maintaining an 80% rate.
  • This trend suggests a fast tempo and open play style, with both sides contributing to goal-scoring chances through transitions and sustained attacks, making over 2.5 goals a strong trend-based angle.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Jagiellonia2.2
Avg goals scored
Anderlecht2
Jagiellonia1
Avg goals conceded
Anderlecht1
Jagiellonia80%
BTTS rate
Anderlecht40%
Jagiellonia80%
Over 2.5 goals
Anderlecht80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both Jagiellonia and Anderlecht have an 80% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals, with Jagiellonia also showing an 80% BTTS rate compared to Anderlecht's 40%. This suggests Jagiellonia's games often see goals at both ends, while Anderlecht's matches may be more variable, but overall goal volume remains high, supporting an over 2.5 goals outcome.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Jagiellonia v Anderlechtcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Jagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Anderlecht Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The 49.6% for Anderlecht Asian Handicap -0.25 sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (-3 pts). Jagiellonia's defensive struggles and both teams' frequent scoring support this exact score, despite Anderlecht's defensive injuries and low European goal tally.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Jagiellonia

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
15 Oct 2026H Ararat-Armenia3-1
16 Sep 2026A Olympiakos Piraeus1-2
27 Aug 2026A FC Iberia 19992-1
20 Aug 2026H FC Iberia 19994-0
13 Aug 2026A Rangers1-1

Anderlecht

LLWWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 2L
15 Oct 2026A Dinamo Zagreb0-1
16 Sep 2026H Lyon1-2
27 Aug 2026H Kairat Almaty3-0
20 Aug 2026A Kairat Almaty3-0
13 Aug 2026H PAOK3-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Jagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Anderlecht Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Anderlecht to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent form data shows Jagiellonia with 10 points and Anderlecht with 9 points in their last matches, both teams scoring over 2 goals per game while conceding around 1. Their consistent goal-scoring and conceding trends reinforce the expectation for an open game with multiple goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
80%Anderlecht Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In recent matches and available data samples, both teams have consistently participated in games with over 2.5 goals, maintaining an 80% rate. This trend suggests a fast tempo and open play style, with both sides contributing to goal-scoring chances through transitions and sustained attacks, making over 2.5 goals a strong trend-based angle.

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