Italy

Belgium

UEFA Nations League | Fri 25 Sep, 19:45

Italy v Belgium Stats

Data last updated: Thu 24 Sep 2026, 07:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Italy and Belgium meet in a UEFA Nations League clash where both sides aim to assert their attacking credentials. Italy, ranked second, and Belgium, third, have shown offensive intent in recent fixtures, setting the stage for a potentially open and goal-rich encounter. Tactical setups from both teams suggest a willingness to press forward, while the stakes of the Nations League encourage positive play. The match promises intensity and attacking opportunities, with both teams eager to capitalize on their offensive strengths in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Italy and Belgium rank 2nd and 3rd in the group, indicating competitive stakes.
Recent matches suggest both teams favor attacking football, increasing goal chances.
Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 over the last five meetings.
Key attackers like Esposito and Lukaku have strong goal and shot metrics.
The market price for Over 2.5 Goals is slightly short, advising cautious staking.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 52.2% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking tendencies of Italy and Belgium. Both teams feature prolific forwards such as Italy's F. Esposito and Belgium's R. Lukaku, who contribute significantly to shot volume and goal threat. The recent head-to-head average of 2.6 goals supports a moderately high-scoring game. Although the market price is slightly short, the tactical openness and offensive quality justify the selection, with a recommendation for reduced stakes due to price sensitivity.

Model Chance52.2% probability for Over 2.5 Goals

Positive

Implied Market Chance55.6%, slightly higher than model

Neutral

Key Players' Offensive StatsEsposito 3.87 shots/90, Lukaku 1.53 shots/90

Strong positive

H2H Average Goals2.6 goals per match in last 5 meetings

Positive

Price SensitivityMarket slightly short, caution advised

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open contest with both Italy and Belgium pushing forward aggressively. Italy's dynamic attackers and Belgium's creative midfielders suggest multiple goal-scoring chances. The data highlights a solid likelihood of a high-scoring game, making Over 2.5 Goals a tactically and statistically sound choice for this Nations League fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Offensive potential and tactical openness

“This fixture features two offensively capable teams whose recent performances and player profiles indicate a lively, goal-filled match. The balance of attacking prowess and tactical intent makes Over 2.5 Goals a compelling angle despite slight price caution.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Italy and Belgium rank 2nd and 3rd in the group, indicating competitive stakes.

Recent matches suggest both teams favor attacking football, increasing goal chances.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 over the last five meetings.

Key attackers like Esposito and Lukaku have strong goal and shot metrics.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

The last five meetings between Italy and Belgium have averaged 2.6 goals per game, indicating a trend toward moderately high-scoring encounters.
This trend, combined with the attacking talent on both sides, suggests a match tempo conducive to Over 2.5 Goals outcomes.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Italy wins

1Draws

0Belgium wins

14 Nov 2024Belgium v Italy0-1

10 Oct 2024Italy v Belgium2-2

10 Oct 2021Italy v Belgium2-1

02 Jul 2021Belgium v Italy1-2

13 Jun 2016Belgium v Italy0-2

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 56% · edge -3.4 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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Italy to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Belgium to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

The head-to-head sample of five matches shows an average of 2.6 goals per game, supporting the expectation of multiple goals. While the sample size is modest, it aligns with the offensive profiles of both teams and the tactical openness anticipated in this fixture.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Italy

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Italy yet.

Belgium

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Belgium yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 74% · edge -3.8 pts

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 57%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Italy to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Italy Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Belgium to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Recent form data is limited, but both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities in prior matches. The lack of concrete recent goal data suggests reliance on player-level attacking metrics and historical trends to anticipate a game with multiple goals.

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Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictions player stats betting angles latest football stats main football hub today's predictions best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Italy-

Avg goals scored

Belgium-

Italy-

Avg goals conceded

Belgium-

Italy-

BTTS rate

Belgium-

Italy-

Over 2.5 goals

Belgium-

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 56% · edge -3.4 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%

Check odds @ 2

Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%

Check odds @ 3

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Both Italy and Belgium have shown offensive intent, with a recent head-to-head average of 2.6 goals per match. This supports a likelihood of goals from both sides, though BTTS data is limited. The attacking profiles of key players further reinforce the potential for multiple goals in this game.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 56% · edge -3.4 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price

Check odds @ 2

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Italy to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Italy Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Belgium to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced slightly short with an implied chance of 55.6% versus the model's 52.2%, indicating a mild overvaluation. This suggests cautious staking is prudent, but the market still reflects the attacking nature of both teams and the fixture's potential for goals.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Nations League

Italy0

Played

Belgium0

Italy0

Avg goals for

Belgium0

Italy0

Avg goals against

Belgium0

Italy0

Clean sheets

Belgium0

Best odds for this sectionItaly to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 46% · edge -2.8 pts

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Load more odds for this section

Italy Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

Belgium Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Belgium to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Season-long attacking statistics highlight Italy's and Belgium's ability to generate shots and goal opportunities consistently. Their offensive output supports the Over 2.5 Goals selection, reflecting sustained attacking pressure and goal threat across competitions.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Italy	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Belgium	0	0	0	0	0	0

Italy and Belgium occupy second and third places in their Nations League group, underscoring the competitive importance of this fixture. The standings suggest both teams will seek positive results, likely encouraging attacking play to secure vital points.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Italy Over 2.5

-Belgium Over 2.5

2.6H2H avg goals

The last five meetings between Italy and Belgium have averaged 2.6 goals per game, indicating a trend toward moderately high-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with the attacking talent on both sides, suggests a match tempo conducive to Over 2.5 Goals outcomes.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Italy v Belgium Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Italy

Belgium

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Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

Italy v Belgium Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Italy

Belgium

Continue the research

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Prediction context

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