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Iran crestIran
v
Gambia crestGambia

Friendlies | Fri 29 May, 16:30

Iran v Gambia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 02:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Iran face Gambia in Friendlies on Fri 29 May, 16:30. Iran come in with 3 recent points and 3 goals per match, while Gambia have 0 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.95, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 78%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Iran and 100% for Gambia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Iran are carrying more of the scoring load at 3 goals per match, with Gambia at 1.
  • BTTS rates of 50% for Iran and 100% for Gambia show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 78% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Iran and 100% for Gambia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price78% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Iran and 100%.Visible data support
Positive
Iran are carrying more of the scoring load at 3.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Iran and 100% for Gambia, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Iran and 100% for Gambia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Iran are carrying more of the scoring load at 3 goals per match, with Gambia at 1.

BTTS rates of 50% for Iran and 100% for Gambia show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Iran3
Avg goals scored
Gambia1
Iran1
Avg goals conceded
Gambia3
Iran50%
BTTS rate
Gambia100%
Iran100%
Over 2.5 goals
Gambia100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 51% · edge +26.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
1.77
Check odds @ 1.77
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 51% · edge +26.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Iran to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Gambia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.65
Check odds @ 3.65
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Iran

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
31 Mar 2026A Costa Rica5-0
27 Mar 2026H Nigeria1-2

Gambia

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
31 Mar 2026A Senegal1-3
Best odds for this sectionIran to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +9.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Gambia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.65
Check odds @ 3.65
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Iran wins
0Draws
0Gambia wins
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 51% · edge +26.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Iran to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Gambia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.65
Check odds @ 3.65
There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Over 2.5 Goals, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies

Iran4
Played
Gambia2
Iran2.8
Avg goals for
Gambia1
Iran0.8
Avg goals against
Gambia3
Iran2
Clean sheets
Gambia0
Best odds for this sectionIran to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +9.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Load more odds for this section
Gambia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Season data supports Iran to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Iran Over 2.5
100%Gambia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Iran sit at 100% and Gambia sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.