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Internacional crestInternacional
v
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama

Serie A | Sat 16 May, 22:30

Internacional v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Tue 09 Jun 2026, 04:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Internacional face Vasco DA Gama in Serie A on Sat 16 May, 22:30. Internacional come in with 6 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while Vasco DA Gama have 8 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Vasco DA Gama to Win

  • At 3.9, Vasco DA Gama Win implies roughly 26%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 49%.
  • Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 6 for Internacional.
  • Vasco DA Gama have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Vasco DA Gama Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Internacional sit 14 in the table, while Vasco DA Gama sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 49% for Vasco DA Gama Win sits against roughly 26% implied by the current price. Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 6 for Internacional.

Model chance vs price49% model chance against roughly 26% implied
Strong positive
Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support
Positive
Vasco DA Gama have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Vasco DA Gama Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 6 for Internacional. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Vasco DA Gama Win evidence

Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 6 for Internacional.

Vasco DA Gama have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Vasco DA Gama Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Internacional sit 14 in the table, while Vasco DA Gama sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Vasco DA Gama Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Internacional1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Vasco DA Gama1.2
    Internacional1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Vasco DA Gama1
    Internacional60%
    BTTS rate
    Vasco DA Gama60%
    Internacional60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Vasco DA Gama40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 52% · edge +17.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Internacional

    DWDLD
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    09 May 2026A Coritiba2-2
    03 May 2026H Fluminense2-0
    25 Apr 2026A Botafogo2-2
    19 Apr 2026H Mirassol1-2
    12 Apr 2026H Gremio0-0

    Vasco DA Gama

    WDLWD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    11 May 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-0
    03 May 2026A Flamengo2-2
    26 Apr 2026A Corinthians0-1
    18 Apr 2026H Sao Paulo2-1
    11 Apr 2026A Remo1-1
    Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 26% · edge +23.3 pts
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    14Internacional2118567-1
    17Vasco DA Gama2018558-7
    Internacional sit in position 14, while Vasco DA Gama sit in position 17, so table pressure belongs in the Vasco DA Gama Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 26% · edge +23.3 pts
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Vasco DA Gama to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Internacional7
    Avg corners for
    Vasco DA Gama5.8
    Internacional9.6
    Avg total corners
    Vasco DA Gama10
    Internacional2.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Vasco DA Gama2.8
    Internacional16.6
    Avg shots
    Vasco DA Gama19.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.4 pts
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Internacional wins
    1Draws
    4Vasco DA Gama wins
    28 Nov 2025Vasco DA Gama v Internacional5-1
    27 Jul 2025Internacional v Vasco DA Gama1-1
    21 Nov 2024Vasco DA Gama v Internacional0-1
    07 Jul 2024Internacional v Vasco DA Gama1-2
    27 Oct 2023Vasco DA Gama v Internacional1-2
    11 Jun 2023Internacional v Vasco DA Gama2-1
    Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 26% · edge +23.3 pts
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Vasco DA Gama to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Internacional18
    Played
    Vasco DA Gama18
    Internacional1.2
    Avg goals for
    Vasco DA Gama1.2
    Internacional1.2
    Avg goals against
    Vasco DA Gama1.6
    Internacional4
    Clean sheets
    Vasco DA Gama1
    Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 26% · edge +23.3 pts
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Season data supports Vasco DA Gama to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Internacional Over 2.5
    40%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
    2.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Internacional sit at 60% and Vasco DA Gama sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.