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Independiente Medellin crestIndependiente Medellin
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Alianza Valledupar crestAlianza Valledupar

Primera A | Sun 01 Nov, 23:10

Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Independiente Medellin hosts Alianza Valledupar in a Primera A clash where Alianza Valledupar arrives in better recent form, having accumulated 7 points compared to Independiente Medellin's 3 in their last matches. Alianza Valledupar's slightly more efficient defense and steadier attack suggest they can challenge effectively on the road. The fixture presents a tactical battle between Independiente Medellin's higher shot volume and Alianza Valledupar's disciplined defensive shape. Both teams have shown mixed goal-scoring trends, adding an element of uncertainty to the outcome as Alianza Valledupar aims to capitalize on their momentum and secure a valuable away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Alianza Valledupar to Win

  • Alianza Valledupar holds a strong recent form edge with 7 points versus Independiente Medellin's 3.
  • Alianza Valledupar's defense concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) compared to Independiente Medellin (1.8).
  • Independiente Medellin averages more shots (14) and corners (6.8), indicating attacking pressure but less defensive solidity.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, suggesting a moderately open game environment.
  • Model projects a 62.3% chance for Alianza Valledupar to win, with strong value at 6.0 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Alianza Valledupar to win based on their superior recent form and more balanced defensive record. Despite Independiente Medellin's higher attacking volume, their defensive vulnerabilities and lower points haul weaken their position. The model identifies strong value in the 6.0 , reflecting an implied chance far below the model's 62.3% win probability. This suggests the market underestimates Alianza Valledupar's chances, making the away win a compelling selection. is high, supported by consistent data across form and defensive metrics.

Recent FormAlianza Valledupar has 7 points vs Independiente Medellin's 3
Strong positive
Defensive RecordAlianza Valledupar concedes 1.2 goals per game vs 1.8 for Independiente Medellin
Positive
Shot VolumeIndependiente Medellin averages 14 shots per game vs 11.6 for Alianza Valledupar
Neutral
Market Value6.0 odds imply 16.7% chance vs model's 62.3%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Alianza Valledupar's recent form and defensive resilience position them well to claim an away victory against Independiente Medellin. The visitors' steadier point accumulation and tighter defense contrast with Independiente Medellin's defensive lapses, making Alianza Valledupar a tactically and statistically sound pick for this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form advantage

“Alianza Valledupar's balanced approach and recent momentum make them a strong contender to upset Independiente Medellin, whose defensive frailties could be exploited effectively on the break.”

Key Data Signals

Alianza Valledupar to Win evidence

Alianza Valledupar holds a strong recent form edge with 7 points versus Independiente Medellin's 3.

Alianza Valledupar's defense concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) compared to Independiente Medellin (1.8).

Independiente Medellin averages more shots (14) and corners (6.8), indicating attacking pressure but less defensive solidity.

Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, suggesting a moderately open game environment.

What To Watch In The Data

Alianza Valledupar to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.2, indicating a moderately open game environment.
  • Independiente Medellin's 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Alianza Valledupar's 40%, suggesting the match could lean towards a slightly lower scoring affair but with potential for key moments.
  • The trend points to a balanced tempo with chances for both sides to impact the scoreline.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Independiente Medellin0.8
Avg goals scored
Alianza Valledupar1
Independiente Medellin1.8
Avg goals conceded
Alianza Valledupar1.2
Independiente Medellin60%
BTTS rate
Alianza Valledupar40%
Independiente Medellin60%
Over 2.5 goals
Alianza Valledupar40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Goal trends show Independiente Medellin averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, while Alianza Valledupar scores 1 and concedes 1.2. Both teams have moderate BTTS rates (60% for Independiente Medellin, 40% for Alianza Valledupar) and mixed over 2.5 goal frequencies, suggesting a game with potential for goals but not guaranteed high scoring. The average 2.2 goals in head-to-head matches supports a balanced goal expectation.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Independiente Medellin

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
29 Oct 2026A Internacional de Bogota1-3
25 Oct 2026A Atletico Nacional1-2
18 Oct 2026H Once Caldas0-2
12 Oct 2026A America de Cali2-1
06 Oct 2026H Santa Fe0-1

Alianza Valledupar

LWWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
28 Oct 2026A Once Caldas0-1
25 Oct 2026H Internacional de Bogota1-0
20 Oct 2026A Deportivo Pasto1-0
10 Oct 2026H Águilas Doradas2-2
03 Oct 2026A Deportivo Cali1-3
Market aligned with main pickAlianza Valledupar to WinBetUK guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Alianza Valledupar Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Alianza Valledupar's recent form is notably stronger, securing 7 points in their last matches compared to Independiente Medellin's 3. This momentum reflects better consistency and resilience, especially defensively, which could be decisive in a closely contested match. Independiente Medellin's struggles to convert chances into points highlight vulnerabilities that Alianza Valledupar can exploit.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlianza Valledupar to WinBetUK guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Alianza Valledupar Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 31.7% for Alianza Valledupar to Win sits against roughly 16.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Alianza Valledupar have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Independiente Medellin.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Independiente Medellin Over 2.5
40%Alianza Valledupar Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.2, indicating a moderately open game environment. Independiente Medellin's 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Alianza Valledupar's 40%, suggesting the match could lean towards a slightly lower scoring affair but with potential for key moments. The trend points to a balanced tempo with chances for both sides to impact the scoreline.

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