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Independiente del Valle crestIndependiente del Valle
v
Libertad Asuncion crestLibertad Asuncion

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 20 May, 03:00

Independiente del Valle v Libertad Asuncion Stats

Data last updated: Tue 19 May 2026, 03:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Independiente del Valle face Libertad Asuncion in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wed 20 May, 03:00. Independiente del Valle come in with 7 recent points and 1.5 goals per match, while Libertad Asuncion have 0 points and 0.75 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • At 1.95, Both Teams To Score implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • Independiente del Valle show a 50% BTTS rate and Libertad Asuncion show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Independiente del Valle average 1.5 goals scored and Libertad Asuncion average 0.75, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 63% for Both Teams To Score sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. Independiente del Valle show a 50% BTTS rate and Libertad Asuncion show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Positive
Independiente del Valle show a 50% BTTS rate and Libertad.Visible data support
Positive
Independiente del Valle average 1.5 goals scored and Libertad Asuncion.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Independiente del Valle show a 50% BTTS rate and Libertad Asuncion show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score evidence

Independiente del Valle show a 50% BTTS rate and Libertad Asuncion show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Independiente del Valle average 1.5 goals scored and Libertad Asuncion average 0.75, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score notes

  • Compare both teams on scoring rate and clean-sheet record before trusting Both Teams To Score.
  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Independiente del Valle7.25
Avg corners for
Libertad Asuncion3.5
Independiente del Valle10.25
Avg total corners
Libertad Asuncion7.75
Independiente del Valle1.5
Avg yellow cards
Libertad Asuncion2.75
Independiente del Valle21.25
Avg shots
Libertad Asuncion10.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Independiente del Valle1.5
Avg goals scored
Libertad Asuncion0.75
Independiente del Valle1.25
Avg goals conceded
Libertad Asuncion2
Independiente del Valle50%
BTTS rate
Libertad Asuncion50%
Independiente del Valle50%
Over 2.5 goals
Libertad Asuncion50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 51% · edge +11.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 51% · edge +11.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Libertad Asuncion Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Independiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Libertad Asuncion to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Independiente del Valle

LWWD
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
06 May 2026A UCV0-2
28 Apr 2026A Libertad Asuncion3-2
16 Apr 2026H UCV3-1
09 Apr 2026A Rosario Central0-0

Libertad Asuncion

LLLL
Last 50W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 4L
05 May 2026A Rosario Central0-1
28 Apr 2026H Independiente del Valle2-3
15 Apr 2026H Rosario Central0-1
09 Apr 2026A UCV1-3
Best odds for this sectionLibertad Asuncion Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 20% · edge +22 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 45%
3.28
Check odds @ 3.28
Independiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Libertad Asuncion to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
5
Check odds @ 5
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Independiente del Valle wins
0Draws
0Libertad Asuncion wins
28 Apr 2026Libertad Asuncion v Independiente del Valle2-3
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 51% · edge +11.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Independiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Libertad Asuncion to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
5
Check odds @ 5
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle6
Played
Libertad Asuncion6
Independiente del Valle1.8
Avg goals for
Libertad Asuncion0.7
Independiente del Valle1
Avg goals against
Libertad Asuncion2.2
Independiente del Valle2
Clean sheets
Libertad Asuncion0
Best odds for this sectionLibertad Asuncion Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 20% · edge +22 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Independiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Libertad Asuncion to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Season data supports Libertad Asuncion Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Independiente del Valle1364115
4Libertad Asuncion06006-9
CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Independiente del Valle Over 2.5
50%Libertad Asuncion Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Independiente del Valle sit at 50% and Libertad Asuncion sit at 50% with the H2H average at 5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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