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Iceland crestIceland
v
Bulgaria crestBulgaria

UEFA Nations League | Sat 03 Oct, 17:00

Iceland v Bulgaria Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Iceland hosts Bulgaria in a UEFA Nations League clash where both teams have shown moderate attacking intent but also tactical discipline. Iceland leads the group with 4 points, while Bulgaria sits fourth with 1 point, adding competitive stakes to this fixture. Recent matches suggest a balanced tempo with both sides capable of generating set-piece opportunities, setting the stage for a contest where territorial battles and wing play could produce numerous corners. Defensive solidity and midfield control will be key, but the likelihood of sustained pressure on the flanks points to a lively corner count.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Iceland averages 4.5 corners per game, Bulgaria 5.5, combining for 10 corners on average.
  • Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating open play phases.
  • Iceland and Bulgaria both average around 14-16 shots per game, reflecting attacking activity.
  • Discipline is balanced with 2.5 yellow cards per team, suggesting moderate fouling and set-piece chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies strong value in Over 9.5 Corners with a 62.1% chance against a 42% implied market chance, offering a 20.1% . Both teams generate a high volume of corners, driven by active wing play and frequent attacking transitions. Iceland's 4.5 and Bulgaria's 5.5 average corners per game combine to exceed the 9.5 line regularly. The match context of balanced but open play supports sustained pressure and repeated deliveries into the box, making this corner market a compelling selection. is high at 85%, reflecting consistent data signals and tactical cues.

Model Chance57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level85%
Strong positive
Average Corners per GameIceland 4.5, Bulgaria 5.5
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tactical battle with both Iceland and Bulgaria pushing for territorial advantage, which typically generates corner opportunities. The combined average corners per game and recent form data suggest that Over 9.5 Corners is a sensible pick, reflecting the teams' attacking patterns and set-piece involvement.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“The corner count is likely to be high as both teams rely on wing play and set-piece deliveries to create chances, making Over 9.5 Corners a strong tactical angle in this Nations League fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Iceland averages 4.5 corners per game, Bulgaria 5.5, combining for 10 corners on average.

Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating open play phases.

Iceland and Bulgaria both average around 14-16 shots per game, reflecting attacking activity.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 50% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating moderate tempo and open phases.
  • Although this fixture may not be high scoring, the attacking tempo and wing play suggest a steady flow of set-piece opportunities, supporting the corner market trend rather than goal volume.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Iceland2
Avg goals scored
Bulgaria0.5
Iceland0.5
Avg goals conceded
Bulgaria1
Iceland50%
BTTS rate
Bulgaria50%
Iceland50%
Over 2.5 goals
Bulgaria50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +8.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have a 50% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, but the BTTS No angle indicates a controlled scoring environment. This suggests that while goals may be limited, the game features phases of structured play and set-piece opportunities, which often correlate with higher corner counts rather than open goal-fests.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisIceland v Bulgaria predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 56% · edge +12.5 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
Bulgaria Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 39%
4.25
Check odds @ 4.25
Iceland to WinBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Iceland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.21
Check odds @ 1.21
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Bulgaria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 15%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
The 57% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Bulgaria lead the corner sample at 5.5 per match, with Iceland lower at 4.5.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Iceland

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
29 Sep 2026A Luxembourg3-0
26 Sep 2026H Estonia1-1

Bulgaria

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
29 Sep 2026H Estonia0-0
26 Sep 2026H Luxembourg1-2
Best odds for this sectionBulgaria Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.25
Check odds @ 4.25
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Iceland to WinBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Iceland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.21
Check odds @ 1.21
Bulgaria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 15%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 20%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Recent form shows Iceland with 4 points and Bulgaria with 1, both teams maintaining a 50% over 2.5 goals rate and balanced BTTS stats. Iceland concedes only 0.5 goals per game, reflecting defensive solidity that may force Bulgaria to rely on wing play and set pieces, increasing corner chances. Bulgaria's lower points tally suggests they will push forward, likely boosting corner counts through sustained pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Iceland Over 2.5
50%Bulgaria Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 50% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating moderate tempo and open phases. Although this fixture may not be high scoring, the attacking tempo and wing play suggest a steady flow of set-piece opportunities, supporting the corner market trend rather than goal volume.

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