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Hull City crestHull City
v
Southampton crestSouthampton

Championship | Sat 23 May, 16:30

Hull City v Southampton Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 13:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hull City face Southampton in Championship on Sat 23 May, 16:30. Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and pricing for this Championship fixture. Southampton’s unbeaten home run makes them significant favourites, though Hull’s resilience keeps the draw in play. St Mary’s pressure cooker: can Southampton turn possession into points against Hull’s counter-punch?

BT4Y best bet

Southampton shoot often; Hull will welcome hopeful efforts from range if they keep numbers back

  • At 2.2, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • The defensive absences for Southampton further tilt the scales toward a high-scoring affair.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Hull City and 80% for Southampton, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Southampton are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Hull City at 1.2.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Hull City and 80% for Southampton show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Hull City and 80% for Southampton, so the goals angle is not just a price call. The defensive absences for Southampton further tilt the scales toward a high-scoring affair.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Hull City.Visible data support
Positive
Southampton are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8.Visible data support
Positive
The defensive absences for Southampton further tilt the scales.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because the defensive absences for Southampton further tilt the scales toward a high-scoring affair. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Hull City and 80% for Southampton, so the goals angle is not just a price call. The fixture status adds uncertainty, so prices should be checked again once the match details settle.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The defensive absences for Southampton further tilt the scales toward a high-scoring affair.

The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Hull City and 80% for Southampton, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Southampton are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Hull City at 1.2.

BTTS rates of 40% for Hull City and 80% for Southampton show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hull City1.2
Avg goals scored
Southampton1.8
Hull City0.6
Avg goals conceded
Southampton1.2
Hull City40%
BTTS rate
Southampton80%
Hull City40%
Over 2.5 goals
Southampton80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 46% · edge +13 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship hubHull City v Southampton predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 46% · edge +13 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
2
Check odds @ 2
Hull City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Southampton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Hull City4.2
Avg corners for
Southampton5.8
Hull City9.4
Avg total corners
Southampton13.4
Hull City1.6
Avg yellow cards
Southampton2
Hull City10.2
Avg shots
Southampton14.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hull City

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
23 May 2026H Middlesbrough1-0
11 May 2026A Millwall2-0
08 May 2026H Millwall0-0
02 May 2026H Norwich2-1
25 Apr 2026A Charlton1-2

Southampton

WDWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 3D 0L
12 May 2026H Middlesbrough2-1
09 May 2026A Middlesbrough0-0
02 May 2026A Preston3-1
28 Apr 2026H Ipswich2-2
21 Apr 2026H Bristol City2-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 52% · edge +23.4 pts
1.94
Check odds @ 1.94
Load more odds for this section
Hull City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Southampton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Hull City wins
1Draws
5Southampton wins
17 Jan 2026Southampton v Hull City1-2
20 Sep 2025Hull City v Southampton3-1
20 Feb 2024Southampton v Hull City1-2
21 Oct 2023Hull City v Southampton1-2
29 Apr 2017Southampton v Hull City0-0
06 Nov 2016Hull City v Southampton2-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 46% · edge +13 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
2
Check odds @ 2
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Championship

Hull City49
Played
Southampton48
Hull City1.5
Avg goals for
Southampton1.8
Hull City1.3
Avg goals against
Southampton1.2
Hull City14
Clean sheets
Southampton12
Best odds for this sectionHull City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 35% · edge +20.8 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Southampton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Season data supports Hull City Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Southampton804622141026
6Hull City73462110154
Hull City sit in position 6, while Southampton sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Hull City Over 2.5
80%Southampton Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Hull City sit at 40% and Southampton sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Hull City v Southampton prediction

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Championship hubChampionship hubHull City v Southampton predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

Next step

Betting context

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