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Hull City crestHull City
v
Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbrough

Championship | Sat 23 May, 15:30

Hull City v Middlesbrough Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hull City face Middlesbrough in Championship on Sat 23 May, 15:30. Now, suddenly restored to the competition, they have another chance to prove the season deserves promotion. Hull’s late-season collapse threatened to ruin everything after just two wins in 11 matches nearly pushed them out of the playoff positions entirely.

BT4Y best bet

For this market is the draw

  • At 6/1, Hull City Win implies roughly 14%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 40%.
  • That matters because Hull’s defensive approach naturally invites pressure.
  • Hull City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Hull City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Hull City sit 6 in the table, while Middlesbrough sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 40% for Hull City Win sits against roughly 14% implied by the current price. Hull City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Hull City Win angle more than a raw possession edge. That matters because Hull’s defensive approach naturally invites pressure.

Model chance vs price40% model chance against roughly 14% implied
Strong positive
Hull City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Hull City sit 6 in the table, while Middlesbrough sit.Visible data support
Positive
That matters because Hull’s defensive approach naturally invites pressure.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Hull City Win is the preferred angle because that matters because Hull’s defensive approach naturally invites pressure. Hull City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Hull City Win angle more than a raw possession edge. It is not always pretty, and traditionalists may hate watching it, but Wembley is not an art exhibition.

Main risk

It is not always pretty, and traditionalists may hate watching it, but Wembley is not an art exhibition.

Key Data Signals

Hull City Win evidence

That matters because Hull’s defensive approach naturally invites pressure.

Hull City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Hull City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Hull City sit 6 in the table, while Middlesbrough sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Hull City Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Hull City1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Middlesbrough1.8
    Hull City1
    Avg goals conceded
    Middlesbrough1
    Hull City60%
    BTTS rate
    Middlesbrough60%
    Hull City60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Middlesbrough60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 77%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickHull City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Hull City to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Hull City5.6
    Avg corners for
    Middlesbrough6.8
    Hull City12
    Avg total corners
    Middlesbrough11.2
    Hull City1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Middlesbrough1.4
    Hull City11
    Avg shots
    Middlesbrough17.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 48% · edge +4.2 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Hull City

    WDWLD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 5D 2L
    11 May 2026A Millwall2-0
    08 May 2026H Millwall0-0
    02 May 2026H Norwich2-1
    25 Apr 2026A Charlton1-2
    21 Apr 2026A Leicester2-2

    Middlesbrough

    LDDWW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    12 May 2026A Southampton1-2
    09 May 2026H Southampton0-0
    02 May 2026A Wrexham2-2
    25 Apr 2026H Watford5-1
    22 Apr 2026H Sheffield Wednesday1-0
    Market aligned with main pickHull City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.89
    Check odds @ 1.89
    Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Hull City wins
    1Draws
    5Middlesbrough wins
    29 Dec 2025Middlesbrough v Hull City0-1
    05 Dec 2025Hull City v Middlesbrough1-4
    01 Jan 2025Hull City v Middlesbrough0-1
    30 Nov 2024Middlesbrough v Hull City3-1
    10 Apr 2024Hull City v Middlesbrough2-2
    13 Dec 2023Middlesbrough v Hull City1-2
    Market aligned with main pickHull City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Hull City to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Championship

    Hull City49
    Played
    Middlesbrough49
    Hull City1.5
    Avg goals for
    Middlesbrough1.5
    Hull City1.3
    Avg goals against
    Middlesbrough1
    Hull City14
    Clean sheets
    Middlesbrough14
    Market aligned with main pickHull City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Season data supports Hull City to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Middlesbrough804622141025
    6Hull City73462110154
    Hull City sit in position 6, while Middlesbrough sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Hull City Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Hull City Over 2.5
    60%Middlesbrough Over 2.5
    2.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Hull City sit at 60% and Middlesbrough sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Hull City v Middlesbrough prediction

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