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Houston Dynamo crestHouston Dynamo
v
FC Dallas crestFC Dallas

Major League Soccer | Sun 18 Oct, 01:30

Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 21:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash features FC Dallas visiting Houston Dynamo in a fixture with playoff implications. FC Dallas currently holds a higher league position and has shown more defensive solidity this season, conceding fewer goals on average. Houston Dynamo, while capable offensively, have struggled defensively, conceding twice as many goals per game. Recent form favors FC Dallas, who have accumulated more points and demonstrated a balanced approach. The match promises tactical battles in midfield and attacking zones, with FC Dallas aiming to capitalize on their defensive strengths and efficient attack to secure a vital away win.

BT4Y best bet

FC Dallas to Win

  • FC Dallas ranks 3rd with 50 points, ahead of Houston Dynamo's 5th place and 46 points.
  • FC Dallas concedes only 0.8 goals per game compared to Houston Dynamo's 2.0, showing stronger defense.
  • FC Dallas averages 12.4 shots per game with 4.2 on target, indicating effective attacking threat.
  • Houston Dynamo has a higher BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate (60%) suggesting open games but defensive vulnerability.
  • Top FC Dallas attacker P. Musa has 19 goals and 2.01 shots on target per 90 minutes, leading the offensive line.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors FC Dallas to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior defensive record and consistent point accumulation. FC Dallas's ability to limit goals conceded (0.8 per game) contrasts with Houston Dynamo's defensive frailties (2.0 per game). Despite similar shot volumes, FC Dallas converts chances more efficiently, supported by key players like P. Musa who contributes significantly to goal scoring. The pricing at 3.1 offers clear value given the implied chance of 32.3%, making this a strong tactical and statistical choice. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Defensive StrengthFC Dallas concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Houston's 2.0
Strong positive
Recent FormFC Dallas has 10 points recently vs Houston's 3
Strong positive
Key Player ImpactP. Musa with 19 goals and 2.01 SOT/90
Strong positive
Value Edge42.8% model chance vs 27.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC Dallas's disciplined defense and consistent recent form make them the tactical favorite in this matchup. Their ability to limit chances and capitalize on key attackers like P. Musa provides a solid foundation for an away victory. Houston Dynamo's defensive struggles and lower point haul suggest they may struggle to contain Dallas's attack, reinforcing the away win selection.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“FC Dallas's defensive resilience and clinical finishing, led by P. Musa, create a compelling case for their victory. Their recent form and tactical discipline should outmatch Houston Dynamo's vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

FC Dallas to Win evidence

FC Dallas ranks 3rd with 50 points, ahead of Houston Dynamo's 5th place and 46 points.

FC Dallas concedes only 0.8 goals per game compared to Houston Dynamo's 2.0, showing stronger defense.

FC Dallas averages 12.4 shots per game with 4.2 on target, indicating effective attacking threat.

Houston Dynamo has a higher BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate (60%) suggesting open games but defensive vulnerability.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Dallas to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderately open matches.
  • Houston Dynamo's higher Over 2.5 goals rate (60%) suggests this fixture can produce goals, but FC Dallas's defensive discipline may temper the scoring, pointing to a tactical game with controlled tempo favoring Dallas's win.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Houston Dynamo1.4
Avg goals scored
FC Dallas1.2
Houston Dynamo2
Avg goals conceded
FC Dallas0.8
Houston Dynamo60%
BTTS rate
FC Dallas40%
Houston Dynamo60%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Dallas40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 62% · edge +1.6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Houston Dynamo's 60% BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rates contrast with FC Dallas's more conservative 40% rates, suggesting an open game with scoring chances for both sides. However, Dallas's defensive discipline may limit Dynamo's scoring opportunities, favoring a controlled match with fewer goals than Houston's average.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Houston Dynamo

DDLDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
15 Oct 2026A San Diego3-3
11 Oct 2026A Minnesota United FC2-2
27 Sep 2026H Sporting Kansas City0-2
20 Sep 2026H FC Cincinnati2-2
13 Sep 2026A San Jose Earthquakes0-1

FC Dallas

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
15 Oct 2026H Seattle Sounders1-0
11 Oct 2026A Charlotte2-3
27 Sep 2026H Los Angeles FC1-0
20 Sep 2026H Austin0-0
13 Sep 2026H Portland Timbers2-1
Market aligned with main pickFC Dallas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
FC Dallas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
FC Dallas's recent form is markedly stronger, accumulating 10 points compared to Houston Dynamo's 3 in recent matches. Dallas's ability to maintain defensive solidity while scoring consistently underpins their momentum, whereas Houston's defensive lapses and lower point yield highlight vulnerabilities ahead of this fixture.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC Dallas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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FC Dallas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 42.8% for FC Dallas to Win sits against roughly 27.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). FC Dallas have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Houston Dynamo.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Houston Dynamo Over 2.5
40%FC Dallas Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderately open matches. Houston Dynamo's higher Over 2.5 goals rate (60%) suggests this fixture can produce goals, but FC Dallas's defensive discipline may temper the scoring, pointing to a tactical game with controlled tempo favoring Dallas's win.

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