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Hellas Verona crestHellas Verona
v
Lecce crestLecce

Serie A | Sat 25 Apr, 19:45

Hellas Verona v Lecce Stats

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 4.75, Under 2.5 Goals is priced at roughly 21% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 64%, so the current line is showing a +43-point value edge.
  • Hellas Verona are at 20% for Over 2.5 in their last-five sample, Lecce are at 40%, and the H2H goal average is 1.8.
  • The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Hellas Verona have taken 0 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
  • The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Lecce have taken 0 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of that sample.
  • If the bookmaker is still close to 4.75, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 23% · edge +30.2 pts
4.33
Bet HERE @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
6
Bet HERE @ 6
Away WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.9
Bet HERE @ 2.9
Away Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.95
Bet HERE @ 1.95
Home WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.62
Bet HERE @ 2.62
Home Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.85
Bet HERE @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3
Bet HERE @ 3
Key match trends

A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.

20%Hellas Verona Over 2.5
40%Lecce Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Recent form

Results and scoring shape from recent games.

Hellas Verona

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 8L
19 Apr 2026H AC Milan0-1
11 Apr 2026A Torino1-2
04 Apr 2026H Fiorentina0-1
22 Mar 2026A Atalanta0-1
15 Mar 2026H Genoa0-2

Lecce

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
20 Apr 2026H Fiorentina1-1
12 Apr 2026A Bologna0-2
06 Apr 2026H Atalanta0-3
22 Mar 2026A AS Roma0-1
14 Mar 2026A Napoli1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 35% · edge +10.2 pts
2.9
Bet HERE @ 2.9
Load more odds for this section
Away Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.95
Bet HERE @ 1.95
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.28
Bet HERE @ 1.28
Home WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.62
Bet HERE @ 2.62
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.25
Bet HERE @ 1.25
Home Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.85
Bet HERE @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3
Bet HERE @ 3
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Goal-market data and related prices.

Hellas Verona0.2
Avg goals scored
Lecce0.4
Hellas Verona1.4
Avg goals conceded
Lecce1.8
Hellas Verona20%
BTTS rate
Lecce40%
Hellas Verona20%
Over 2.5 goals
Lecce40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 21% · edge +43 pts
4.75
Bet HERE @ 4.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
4.33
Bet HERE @ 4.33
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
2.75
Bet HERE @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
6
Bet HERE @ 6
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
21
Bet HERE @ 21
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.2
Bet HERE @ 1.2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and related markets.

5Hellas Verona wins
3Draws
2Lecce wins
08 Nov 2025Lecce v Hellas Verona0-0
11 May 2025Hellas Verona v Lecce1-1
29 Oct 2024Lecce v Hellas Verona1-0
10 Mar 2024Lecce v Hellas Verona0-1
27 Nov 2023Hellas Verona v Lecce2-2
07 May 2023Lecce v Hellas Verona0-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 23% · edge +30.2 pts
4.33
Bet HERE @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
6
Bet HERE @ 6
Away WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.9
Bet HERE @ 2.9
Home WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.62
Bet HERE @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3
Bet HERE @ 3
Corners, cards and shots

Detailed stat markets where available.

Hellas Verona5.8
Avg corners for
Lecce4.4
Hellas Verona7.6
Avg total corners
Lecce10.8
Hellas Verona2.8
Avg yellow cards
Lecce1.4
Hellas Verona14.4
Avg shots
Lecce10.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 54% · edge +4.2 pts
1.85
Bet HERE @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.83
Bet HERE @ 1.83
Player stats

Player props and player-level signals.

Best player angleJesús Santiago Anytime GoalscorerJesús Santiago · 0 goals · 8.18 SOT/90
86/100
Bet HERE
Load more player angles
Jesús Santiago 1+ Shot On TargetJesús Santiago · 8.18 shots on target/90
84/100
Bet HERE
Jesús Santiago 2+ ShotsJesús Santiago · 16.36 shots/90
82/100
Bet HERE
Jesús Santiago To Assist / Key Pass AngleJesús Santiago · 0 assists · 8.18 key passes/90
78/100
Bet HERE
Jesús Santiago To Be FouledJesús Santiago · 8.18 fouls won/90
80/100
Bet HERE
J. Akpa Akpro Card RiskJ. Akpa Akpro · 9 yellows · 2.32 fouls/90
80/100
Bet HERE
Jesús Santiago
Jesús SantiagoHellas Verona · Midfielder
Goal threat100/100
Shots /9016.36
SOT /908.18
G. Orban
G. OrbanHellas Verona · Attacker
Goal threat66/100
Shots /902.7
SOT /901.24
Giovane
GiovaneHellas Verona · Attacker
Goal threat59/100
Shots /902.04
SOT /901.46
Ioan Vermeșan
Ioan VermeșanHellas Verona · Attacker
Goal threat25/100
Shots /903.79
SOT /900.95
J. Akpa Akpro
J. Akpa AkproHellas Verona · Midfielder
Goal threat19/100
Shots /900.42
SOT /900.24
N. Valentini
N. ValentiniHellas Verona · Defender
Goal threat24/100
Shots /901.02
SOT /900.45
L. Banda
L. BandaLecce · Attacker
Goal threat46/100
Shots /901.23
SOT /900.77
Season team stats

Serie A

Hellas Verona38
Played
Lecce38
Hellas Verona0.7
Avg goals for
Lecce0.7
Hellas Verona1.6
Avg goals against
Lecce1.3
Hellas Verona6
Clean sheets
Lecce10
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 35% · edge +10.2 pts
2.9
Bet HERE @ 2.9
Load more odds for this section
Away Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.95
Bet HERE @ 1.95
Home WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.62
Bet HERE @ 2.62
Home Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.85
Bet HERE @ 1.85
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
17Lecce383810820-22
19Hellas Verona213831223-36

Next step

Betting context

Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.

Football Stats, Match Data & Daily Betting Analysis

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