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Hamilton Academical crestHamilton Academical
v
Raith Rovers crestRaith Rovers

League Cup | Sat 18 Jul, 15:00

Hamilton Academical v Raith Rovers Stats

Data last updated: Fri 17 Jul 2026, 05:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hamilton Academical and Raith Rovers meet in the League Cup with both sides showing cautious early-season form. Hamilton have kept a clean sheet while scoring just once in recent matches, reflecting a conservative approach. Raith Rovers have slightly more attacking output but also maintain a solid defensive record. The tactical setup suggests a measured contest with neither team pushing aggressively for goals, increasing the likelihood of a low-scoring game. The stakes of this cup tie and early season fitness may further encourage defensive discipline and limit open attacking play.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Hamilton Academical have not scored more than one goal recently and kept clean sheets.
  • Raith Rovers average 1.5 goals scored but concede only 0.5 per game, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Hamilton Academical have a 0% rate of games over 2.5 goals in recent form, showing low-scoring tendencies.
  • Raith Rovers have a 50% over 2.5 goals rate, but combined recent data favors fewer goals.
  • Historical head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, but current form suggests a tighter game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 63.1% chance, reflecting both teams' recent defensive strengths and low scoring outputs. Hamilton Academical's recent matches have produced no overs, while Raith Rovers show mixed signals but still maintain a solid defense. The tactical context of a cautious cup tie supports a lower goal count. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation. Limited player data means line-ups and tactical adjustments could influence the final outcome, but current trends strongly support a low-scoring match.

Hamilton Academical recent goals1 goal scored, 0 conceded
Strong positive
Raith Rovers recent goals1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded
Positive
Over 2.5 goals recent rate Hamilton0%
Strong positive
Over 2.5 goals recent rate Raith Rovers50%
Neutral
Model confidence63.1% chance Under 2.5 Goals
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals pick suits the tactical caution expected in this early League Cup tie. Hamilton Academical's defensive discipline and Raith Rovers' modest attacking output combine to suggest a tight match with limited scoring opportunities. The data supports a low-goal outcome, aligning with the teams' recent form and competition context.

Main risk

The main risk is that Raith Rovers' 50% over 2.5 goals rate could lead to a more open game than recent defensive stats suggest.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and scoring outlook

“Hamilton's defensive solidity combined with Raith Rovers' measured attacking approach points to a low-scoring encounter. The early season cup setting often encourages caution, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Hamilton Academical have not scored more than one goal recently and kept clean sheets.

Raith Rovers average 1.5 goals scored but concede only 0.5 per game, indicating defensive solidity.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, a relatively high figure.
  • However, recent form and tactical context suggest this fixture will be more restrained.
  • The trend panel highlights the potential for goals but current data favors a slower tempo and fewer scoring chances in this specific match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hamilton Academical1
Avg goals scored
Raith Rovers1.5
Hamilton Academical0
Avg goals conceded
Raith Rovers0.5
Hamilton Academical0%
BTTS rate
Raith Rovers50%
Hamilton Academical0%
Over 2.5 goals
Raith Rovers50%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 49% · edge +14.3 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 62%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Recent form shows Hamilton Academical have not participated in any over 2.5 goals matches, while Raith Rovers have a 50% rate, indicating some variability. Both teams have low goals conceded, suggesting a defensive approach that limits high-scoring outcomes and BTTS occurrences.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionHamilton Academical to WinBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 26% · edge +11.2 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Load more odds for this section
Hamilton Academical Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Raith Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Raith Rovers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The Under 2.5 Goals market reflects a balanced price with no significant , supported by a above 60%. The appear fair given the defensive tendencies of Hamilton and Raith Rovers, though the market remains watchful for any shifts if Raith Rovers push more aggressively.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hamilton Academical

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
11 Jul 2026A Peterhead1-0

Raith Rovers

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
14 Jul 2026A Kilmarnock0-0
11 Jul 2026H Elgin City3-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 55% · edge +11.3 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Hamilton Academical to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Hamilton Academical Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Raith Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Raith Rovers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Hamilton Academical's recent form features a clean sheet and minimal goals scored, reinforcing a low-scoring trend. Raith Rovers show slightly more attacking output but maintain defensive resilience. This recent form suggests a match unlikely to exceed two goals, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Hamilton Academical wins
3Draws
5Raith Rovers wins
27 Jun 2026Raith Rovers v Hamilton Academical2-2
09 Dec 2025Raith Rovers v Hamilton Academical5-2
29 Mar 2025Hamilton Academical v Raith Rovers0-3
22 Feb 2025Raith Rovers v Hamilton Academical2-0
28 Jan 2025Hamilton Academical v Raith Rovers0-3
21 Sep 2024Raith Rovers v Hamilton Academical3-3
Best odds for this sectionHamilton Academical to WinBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 26% · edge +11.2 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Load more odds for this section
Raith Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Historical meetings between Hamilton Academical and Raith Rovers have produced an average of 3.6 goals, indicating potential for open games. However, the current defensive form and tactical caution reduce the relevance of this trend, suggesting the head-to-head record is background rather than a strong predictor for this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Cup

Hamilton Academical1
Played
Raith Rovers2
Hamilton Academical1
Avg goals for
Raith Rovers1.5
Hamilton Academical0
Avg goals against
Raith Rovers1
Hamilton Academical1
Clean sheets
Raith Rovers0
Best odds for this sectionHamilton Academical to WinBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 26% · edge +11.2 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Load more odds for this section
Hamilton Academical Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Raith Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Raith Rovers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Season-long data indicates Hamilton Academical's defense is robust with few goals conceded, while their attack is modest. Raith Rovers balance moderate scoring with solid defense, supporting a low total goals expectation. These season stats align with the Under 2.5 Goals market as a realistic outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Hamilton Academical Over 2.5
50%Raith Rovers Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, a relatively high figure. However, recent form and tactical context suggest this fixture will be more restrained. The trend panel highlights the potential for goals but current data favors a slower tempo and fewer scoring chances in this specific match.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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