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Ham-Kam crestHam-Kam
v
Rosenborg crestRosenborg

Eliteserien | Sat 24 Oct, 17:00

Ham-Kam v Rosenborg Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Eliteserien clash between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg promises an open encounter given both teams' recent attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities. Ham-Kam have conceded heavily while scoring at a modest rate, whereas Rosenborg boast a potent offense averaging over three goals per game. Both sides have shown a strong tendency for high-scoring matches, with an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals. The fixture's timing late in the season adds urgency, likely encouraging attacking intent from both sides as they seek valuable points.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Ham-Kam and Rosenborg both have an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Rosenborg average 3.2 goals scored per game, indicating strong offensive capability.
  • Ham-Kam concede an average of 3.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties.
  • Recent form shows both teams involved in high-scoring affairs, supporting Over 3.5 Goals.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 2.78 goals, suggesting a history of open games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 54.6% chance to Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses of both sides. Rosenborg's prolific offense and Ham-Kam's porous defense create a scenario conducive to multiple goals. Both teams have consistently participated in high-scoring matches, with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate each, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-laden game. The current offer positive value with a 10.2% edge, making this a compelling selection based on statistical and tactical factors.

Model Probability54.6% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive
Team Scoring RatesRosenborg 3.2 goals/game, Ham-Kam 1.4 goals/game
Positive
Defensive WeaknessHam-Kam concede 3.2 goals/game
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate80% for both teams
Strong positive
Value Edge54.6% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+10.2 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and high-tempo match with Rosenborg's attacking prowess likely to exploit Ham-Kam's defensive vulnerabilities. The data supports a high-scoring game, making Over 3.5 Goals a strong tactical and statistical pick for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“Rosenborg's offensive firepower combined with Ham-Kam's defensive struggles sets the stage for a goal-rich encounter. The attacking momentum on both sides suggests that Over 3.5 Goals is a well-founded expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Ham-Kam and Rosenborg both have an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.

Rosenborg average 3.2 goals scored per game, indicating strong offensive capability.

Ham-Kam concede an average of 3.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties.

Recent form shows both teams involved in high-scoring affairs, supporting Over 3.5 Goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.78, indicating a history of relatively open games.
  • Both teams' recent matches maintain an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, reinforcing the trend for goal-rich encounters driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ham-Kam1.4
Avg goals scored
Rosenborg3.2
Ham-Kam3.2
Avg goals conceded
Rosenborg1
Ham-Kam60%
BTTS rate
Rosenborg60%
Ham-Kam80%
Over 2.5 goals
Rosenborg80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 44% · edge +10.2 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have demonstrated a strong propensity for goals, with an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and a 60% BTTS rate each. Rosenborg's attacking efficiency and Ham-Kam's defensive lapses suggest multiple goal scenarios. The combination of these trends underpins the likelihood of a lively, goal-filled match.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Rosenborg to WinBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Rosenborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Ham-Kam Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Ham-Kam to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The 54.6% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+10.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Ham-Kam and 80% for Rosenborg, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ham-Kam

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
17 Oct 2026H Bodo/Glimt0-2
11 Oct 2026A Start4-2
20 Sep 2026A Tromso2-3
13 Sep 2026H Molde1-5
05 Sep 2026A Rosenborg0-4

Rosenborg

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
18 Oct 2026A Sarpsborg 08 FF3-0
10 Oct 2026H Sandefjord1-1
19 Sep 2026A Kristiansund BK3-1
12 Sep 2026H Tromso5-3
05 Sep 2026H Ham-Kam4-0
Best odds for this sectionRosenborg to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Rosenborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Ham-Kam Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Ham-Kam to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Recent form data highlights both teams' involvement in high-scoring matches, with Ham-Kam scoring 1.4 and conceding 3.2 goals per game, while Rosenborg scores 3.2 and concedes just 1. Both maintain an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating consistent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities that favor a goal-heavy fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Ham-Kam Over 2.5
80%Rosenborg Over 2.5
2.78H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.78, indicating a history of relatively open games. Both teams' recent matches maintain an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, reinforcing the trend for goal-rich encounters driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps.

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