Football Stats Hub

Guiseley AFC crestGuiseley AFC
v
Sutton Utd crestSutton Utd

FA Cup | Sat 07 Nov, 15:00

Guiseley AFC v Sutton Utd Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Guiseley AFC hosts Sutton Utd in this FA Cup clash, with Guiseley showing strong recent form and offensive output. Guiseley has averaged 2.4 goals per game and secured 13 points recently, while Sutton Utd has struggled to score and gain points, with just 3 points and an average of 1 goal per game. Guiseley's attacking momentum and defensive solidity set a clear tactical edge, suggesting they will control the match tempo and create more chances at home. Sutton Utd's lack of offensive threat and recent results add uncertainty to their ability to challenge effectively in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Guiseley AFC to Win

  • Guiseley AFC has earned 13 points recently versus Sutton Utd's 3 points.
  • Guiseley averages 2.4 goals per game, showing strong attacking form.
  • Sutton Utd has failed to score in recent matches, averaging 0 goals against Guiseley.
  • Guiseley averages 16 shots and 8 shots on target per game, dominating offensive stats.
  • Guiseley maintains solid defensive form, conceding only 0.8 goals per game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Guiseley AFC to win, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking control. Guiseley's high shot volume and goal-scoring rate contrast sharply with Sutton Utd's offensive struggles, reinforcing in a home victory. The price offers positive value with a 46% edge, supporting a standard stake. Defensive solidity and home advantage further strengthen Guiseley's chances. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Recent form pointsGuiseley 13 vs Sutton 3
Strong positive
Goals per gameGuiseley 2.4 vs Sutton 1.0
Strong positive
Shots per gameGuiseley 16 vs Sutton 0
Strong positive
Defensive recordGuiseley concedes 0.8 goals per game
Positive
Value edge33.7% model chance vs 27.8% implied (+5.9 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Guiseley AFC's recent attacking form and home advantage make them the clear favorite to win this FA Cup tie. Their ability to create numerous chances and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Sutton Utd's struggles to score and gain points, making a home victory the most probable outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Guiseley AFC's control in shots and goals recently highlights their control in this matchup, while Sutton Utd's lack of offensive threat suggests a tough challenge ahead for the visitors.”

Key Data Signals

Guiseley AFC to Win evidence

Guiseley AFC has earned 13 points recently versus Sutton Utd's 3 points.

Guiseley averages 2.4 goals per game, showing strong attacking form.

Sutton Utd has failed to score in recent matches, averaging 0 goals against Guiseley.

Guiseley averages 16 shots and 8 shots on target per game, dominating offensive stats.

What To Watch In The Data

Guiseley AFC to Win notes

  • Over the last four meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5 per game, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Guiseley AFC's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% in recent matches suggests a tempo favoring multiple goals, driven by their attacking style and Sutton Utd's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Guiseley AFC2.4
Avg goals scored
Sutton Utd1
Guiseley AFC0.8
Avg goals conceded
Sutton Utd0
Guiseley AFC60%
BTTS rate
Sutton Utd0%
Guiseley AFC80%
Over 2.5 goals
Sutton Utd0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +11.9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Goal-scoring trends suggest a controlled game with Guiseley averaging 2.4 goals per match and Sutton Utd struggling to score, reflected in their 0 BTTS rate. This points to a likely scenario where Guiseley scores while Sutton Utd fails to find the net, supporting a low BTTS probability.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more FA Cup analysisfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGuiseley AFC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 28% · edge +5.9 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Guiseley AFC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The 33.7% for Guiseley AFC to Win sits against roughly 27.8% implied by the current price (+5.9 pts). Guiseley AFC have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 3 for Sutton Utd.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Guiseley AFC

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
17 Oct 2026A Leiston3-0
03 Oct 2026H Bradford (Park Avenue)1-0
19 Sep 2026A Hebburn Town4-1
08 Sep 2026H Stockton Town2-1
05 Sep 2026A Stockton Town2-2

Sutton Utd

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Truro City1-0
Market aligned with main pickGuiseley AFC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 28% · edge +5.9 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Guiseley AFC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Guiseley AFC's recent form is markedly superior, securing 13 points with a strong goal-scoring record, while Sutton Utd has only 3 points and a poor offensive output. This disparity indicates Guiseley enters the match with momentum and , likely translating into control and a winning performance.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Guiseley AFC Over 2.5
0%Sutton Utd Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last four meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5 per game, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Guiseley AFC's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% in recent matches suggests a tempo favoring multiple goals, driven by their attacking style and Sutton Utd's defensive vulnerabilities.

Loading deeper match data…