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Guingamp crestGuingamp
v
Saint Etienne crestSaint Etienne

Ligue 2 | Sat 31 Oct, 19:00

Guingamp v Saint Etienne Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Saint Etienne arrives at this Ligue 2 clash in strong form, leading the table with 25 points and boasting a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game. Guingamp, mid-table with 11 points, have struggled to find consistent attacking rhythm, scoring 1.2 goals per match. Saint Etienne's tactical discipline and recent momentum position them as favorites, though Guingamp's home resilience and occasional offensive bursts add a layer of uncertainty to this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Saint Etienne to Win

  • Saint Etienne leads Ligue 2 with 25 points, showing strong form and defensive solidity.
  • Guingamp sits 11th with 11 points, scoring 1.2 goals per game but conceding 1.4 on average.
  • Saint Etienne concedes just 0.8 goals per match, indicating defensive strength.
  • Guingamp averages more shots and corners, suggesting attacking intent but less efficiency.
  • Saint Etienne's to win is 62.3%, with positive value at 1.83 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Saint Etienne's superior league position and defensive record underpin the model's in their victory, supported by a 62.3% win probability. Despite Guingamp's higher shot and corner counts, Saint Etienne's efficiency and form edge the balance. The offer positive value, reflecting the model's assessment of Saint Etienne's tactical control and consistent output. No data limitations affect this analysis, making the pick a solid choice based on current season performance and momentum.

Saint Etienne league rank1st place with 25 points
Strong positive
Defensive record0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Guingamp attacking volumeHigher shots (12.6) and corners (4.6)
Neutral
Model win probability62.3% chance for Saint Etienne
Strong positive
Odds value edge62.3% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+7.7 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Saint Etienne's tactical discipline and league-leading defensive record make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their consistent form and ability to limit opponents' chances provide a strong foundation for success against a Guingamp side that creates chances but lacks finishing efficiency.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Saint Etienne's tactical and defensive edge

“Saint Etienne's blend of defensive solidity and clinical finishing positions them well to capitalize on Guingamp's defensive vulnerabilities, making their win a compelling prospect.”

Key Data Signals

Saint Etienne to Win evidence

Saint Etienne leads Ligue 2 with 25 points, showing strong form and defensive solidity.

Guingamp sits 11th with 11 points, scoring 1.2 goals per game but conceding 1.4 on average.

Saint Etienne concedes just 0.8 goals per match, indicating defensive strength.

Guingamp averages more shots and corners, suggesting attacking intent but less efficiency.

What To Watch In The Data

Saint Etienne to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.3, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters.
  • However, Saint Etienne's recent defensive form suggests they may limit Guingamp's scoring opportunities, potentially moderating the goal count despite the historical trend.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Guingamp1.2
Avg goals scored
Saint Etienne1.4
Guingamp1.4
Avg goals conceded
Saint Etienne0.8
Guingamp60%
BTTS rate
Saint Etienne40%
Guingamp60%
Over 2.5 goals
Saint Etienne40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Guingamp's matches have a 60% rate of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, indicating open games with attacking intent. In contrast, Saint Etienne's fixtures show a more conservative 40% rate for both metrics, reflecting their defensive focus. This contrast suggests a balanced contest where goals may come but with Saint Etienne controlling the defensive narrative.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Guingamp

WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
23 Oct 2026A Clermont Foot2-0
16 Oct 2026H PAU1-2
09 Oct 2026A Nancy0-1
19 Sep 2026H RED Star FC 931-3
12 Sep 2026H Annecy2-1

Saint Etienne

WWWDL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
24 Oct 2026H Nantes1-0
17 Oct 2026A RED Star FC 931-0
10 Oct 2026H Rodez2-0
19 Sep 2026A Metz2-2
12 Sep 2026A Dunkerque1-2
Market aligned with main pickSaint Etienne to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 55% · edge +7.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Saint Etienne Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Saint Etienne's recent form is strong, accumulating 10 points in their last matches with a solid defensive record conceding only 0.8 goals per game. Guingamp has collected 6 points recently but struggles to convert chances, scoring 1.2 goals per game and conceding more frequently. This form disparity favors Saint Etienne's likelihood of securing a win.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSaint Etienne to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 55% · edge +7.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Saint Etienne Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 62.3% for Saint Etienne to Win sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+7.7 pts). Saint Etienne have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Guingamp.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Guingamp Over 2.5
40%Saint Etienne Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.3, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters. However, Saint Etienne's recent defensive form suggests they may limit Guingamp's scoring opportunities, potentially moderating the goal count despite the historical trend.

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