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Gubbio crestGubbio
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Atalanta II crestAtalanta II

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 18 Oct, 13:30

Gubbio v Atalanta II Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C Girone B clash features Gubbio hosting Atalanta II on a Sunday afternoon. Atalanta II arrives with better recent form, having collected six points compared to Gubbio's single point from their last matches. Both teams have struggled defensively, but Atalanta II's slightly more potent attack and higher scoring rate suggest they will look to control the game. Gubbio sits lower in the standings and has shown difficulty finding the net, adding pressure to their home performance. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Atalanta II's ability to exploit Gubbio's defensive vulnerabilities while managing transitions carefully.

BT4Y best bet

Atalanta II to Win

  • Atalanta II has a 69.1% to win, indicating strong statistical backing.
  • Gubbio has scored only 0.4 goals per game recently, while Atalanta II averages 1.2 goals.
  • Atalanta II’s recent form yields 6 points versus Gubbio’s 1 point, showing momentum advantage.
  • Gubbio concedes 2 goals per game, more than Atalanta II’s 1.8, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Atalanta II’s Over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, suggesting open games with scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Atalanta II to win due to their superior recent form and more effective attack, averaging 1.2 goals per game compared to Gubbio's 0.4. Defensively, both teams are vulnerable, but Atalanta II concedes slightly fewer goals, supporting their chances to secure victory. The model’s 69.1% win probability reflects these factors, reinforced by Atalanta II’s higher points tally and better goal-scoring trends. No data limitations affect in this pick, and the current offer positive value with a clear statistical edge.

Recent formAtalanta II has 6 points vs Gubbio's 1 point
Strong positive
Goals scored per gameAtalanta II 1.2 vs Gubbio 0.4
Strong positive
Goals conceded per gameGubbio 2.0 vs Atalanta II 1.8
Positive
Model win probability69.1% for Atalanta II
Strong positive
Value edge54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Verdict: Atalanta II’s recent momentum and better attacking output make them the likely winners in this Serie C fixture. Their ability to score more consistently and concede fewer goals than Gubbio provides a solid foundation for victory. Gubbio’s struggles to find the net and defensive lapses further tilt the balance towards Atalanta II securing the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome

“Atalanta II’s edge in recent form and goal production gives them a clear tactical advantage, especially against a Gubbio side that has struggled defensively and offensively. This match should favor the visitors if they maintain their attacking intensity.”

Key Data Signals

Atalanta II to Win evidence

Atalanta II has a 69.1% to win, indicating strong statistical backing.

Gubbio has scored only 0.4 goals per game recently, while Atalanta II averages 1.2 goals.

Atalanta II’s recent form yields 6 points versus Gubbio’s 1 point, showing momentum advantage.

Gubbio concedes 2 goals per game, more than Atalanta II’s 1.8, highlighting defensive frailty.

What To Watch In The Data

Atalanta II to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Atalanta II has a 60% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games.
  • Gubbio’s lower rate of 20% suggests more defensive or low-scoring matches.
  • This trend suggests the fixture may feature a moderate tempo with chances for multiple goals, primarily driven by Atalanta II’s offensive approach.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gubbio0.4
Avg goals scored
Atalanta II1.2
Gubbio2
Avg goals conceded
Atalanta II1.8
Gubbio40%
BTTS rate
Atalanta II60%
Gubbio20%
Over 2.5 goals
Atalanta II60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with Gubbio conceding 2 goals per game and Atalanta II 1.8. Atalanta II’s 60% Over 2.5 goals rate indicates matches often feature multiple goals, while Gubbio’s lower scoring rate suggests they rely on defensive resilience. This combination points to a game with scoring chances but possibly limited BTTS likelihood due to Gubbio’s struggles to score.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtalanta II to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Atalanta II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 54.2% for Atalanta II to Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Atalanta II have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Gubbio.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gubbio

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 6L
10 Oct 2026A Spezia0-2
03 Oct 2026H Perugia1-3
27 Sep 2026A Ravenna0-2
20 Sep 2026H Ostia Mare0-2
16 Sep 2026A Pescara1-1

Atalanta II

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 5L
14 Oct 2026A Latina0-2
11 Oct 2026A Torres1-2
20 Sep 2026H Ravenna0-2
16 Sep 2026A Sambenedettese3-2
12 Sep 2026H Pescara2-1
Market aligned with main pickAtalanta II to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Atalanta II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Atalanta II’s recent form is markedly better, with 6 points gained compared to Gubbio’s single point. This momentum difference is reflected in their higher goal scoring and slightly better defensive record. The form data indicates Atalanta II is more confident and effective in matches, increasing their chances to control the game and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Gubbio Over 2.5
60%Atalanta II Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Atalanta II has a 60% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games. Gubbio’s lower rate of 20% suggests more defensive or low-scoring matches. This trend suggests the fixture may feature a moderate tempo with chances for multiple goals, primarily driven by Atalanta II’s offensive approach.

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